downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lookout said something earlier about the storm spreading out and the gradient between the wedge in N Ga and W Carolinas , leading to those crazy wind gusts modeled Meh I am skeptical, if the storm hits way west like the panhandle moving NE quickly then yeah but if the center rides up the center of Florida it will be barely a TS if that by the time it gets to central GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: You look at that and its amazing to me she is plowing straight west....the flow over FL is SW to NE and pretty strong look the the clouds right along the SE coast screaming NE.....how she isnt already headed north or hell even NW is crazy to me, I guess the base of the trough is just a little to far north to grab her enough..most models pull that S/W over Kansas all the way to the gulf coast.... The system is too far south. Once you are talking about a hurricane south of 25N its not necessarily easy to get it picked up by a trof or shortwave over the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: Meh I am skeptical, if the storm hits way west like the panhandle moving NE quickly then yeah but if the center rides up the center of Florida it will be barely a TS if that by the time it gets to central GA. It seems suspicious to me, but alas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 SC Governor delaying decision to evacuate. I don't get the impression they will at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, StormyClearweather said: It seems suspicious to me, but alas: Yeah that would be damn impressive for a system 36 hrs after landfall but for example Fran in 96 came in as a 125 mph Cat 3 moving 20 mph and she had a large wind field with a HP over NE and even then this was the reports...maybe on the coast of GA they could get 75+ gust but well inland seems extremely unlikely and that is in S GA much less further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 May just be a wobble, but the eye definitely has some northern movement to it at the moment. Also, impressive how much the wind/rain shield has expanded. Outer bands already showing up on Miami radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I am highly suspect also, as I view these windspeed maps like I do the clown maps in winter. But, just seeing the '93' on the map about 10 miles east of me here in Macon makes me glad I've got the generator fueled up. Will be truly interesting to read the various write-ups on this if the departing high maximizes the winds like this is predicting. Maybe there's precedent for this setup, but not in my memory. Anyone have links to historical study on this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah that would be damn impressive for a system 36 hrs after landfall but for example Fran in 96 came in as a 125 mph Cat 3 moving 20 mph and she had a large wind field with a HP over NE and even then this was the reports...maybe on the coast of GA they could get 75+ gust but well inland seems extremely unlikely and that is in S GA much less further north. Yeah, I don't think NWS is buying it either, but it's interesting nonetheless. Edit to add Ryan's maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Meh I am skeptical, if the storm hits way west like the panhandle moving NE quickly then yeah but if the center rides up the center of Florida it will be barely a TS if that by the time it gets to central GA. Well that might be stretching it a bit calling it "barely a depression" as both models have it in the mid 970s range in central ga. ..and yeah if it hits the panhandle which would move it into alabama.....which isn't what is being progged right now...then yeah winds probably wouldn't be as high. But as it stands now that's not what is being shown. I'm skeptical of the near 100 mph gusts too but this is several runs in a row now by both models and some abnormally high gusts approaching hurricane force doesn't appear to me to be too out of bounds given the setup. When irma moves into south ga, both models have a 40 to 45mb gradient across the state.....it seems to me to be hard to not have high winds with high pressure nosing in in a cad like situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: May just be a wobble, but the eye definitely has some northern movement to it at the moment. Also, impressive how much the wind/rain shield has expanded. Outer bands already showing up on Miami radar. It has gained a bit of lat but its also consolidating its eyewall and there is some dry air in there so it can make it look like it is wobbling a lot....sometimes when storms "feel" land they can make sudden direction changes....like when Ivan danced around Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 What I saw on the EURO was the initial further west push but then the storm hooks North and even a little east of due North in FL ( hard to determine on 24 hr maps) then swinging NW again. Further west down in FL but looked à little further east in N FL. GFS still east of EURO. Wind field on GFS very far reaching still with a wide expanse of 64> KT winds aloft at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah that would be damn impressive for a system 36 hrs after landfall but for example Fran in 96 came in as a 125 mph Cat 3 moving 20 mph and she had a large wind field with a HP over NE and even then this was the reports...maybe on the coast of GA they could get 75+ gust but well inland seems extremely unlikely and that is in S GA much less further north. The key difference with that is eastern north carolina doesn't have mountains and frankly it's not really close to the same situation. It seems a little crazy at first to have winds that high considering how long it stays over land but it's hard to just dismiss both models out of hand considering the consistency. Never mind the fact that a NW moving high end tropical storm/remnant hurricane (edited) moving through ga with a cad configuration is something that is highly unusual and frankly we also don't really have anything to compare it to either to get some idea. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: Well that might be stretching it a bit calling it "barely a depression" as both models have it in the mid 970s range in central ga. ..and yeah if it hits the panhandle which would move it into alabama.....which isn't what is being progged right now...then yeah winds probably wouldn't be as high. But as it stands now that's not what is being shown. I'm skeptical of the near 100 mph gusts too but this is several runs in a row now by both models and some abnormally high gusts approaching hurricane force doesn't appear to me to be too out of bounds given the setup. When irma moves into south ga, both models have a 40 to 45mb gradient across the state.....it seems to me to be hard to not have high winds in that type with high pressure nosing in in a cad like situation. Yeah but realistically after 36 hrs over land will it really have pressures that low? I doubt it has pressure that low 18 hrs after coming ashore....but shes a strong storm so who knows but that would be pretty impressive to hold that low of a pressure that long after landfall probably unprecedented.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: The key difference with that is eastern north carolina doesn't have mountains and frankly it's not really close to the same situation. It seems a little crazy at first to have winds that high considering how long it stays over land but it's hard to just dismiss both models out of hand considering the consistency. Never mind the fact that a NW moving hurricane moving through ga with a cad configuration is something that is highly unusual and frankly we don't really have anything to compare it to. I guess we'll see. Yeah elevation may be the difference.....it will take that longer to wind down perhaps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Regarding the wind conversation, here's the latest from GSP's just released disco on that aspect. If anything, the shift of the track to the west might have raised the flood threat for western parts of our area where the strong upslope flow will have the best mechanical lift against the Blue Ridge Escarpment near the SC/NC border. Winds might be less overall, but a strong pressure gradient between Irma and the high to the north will keep an impressive wind across the area nonetheless...one that would probably still require wind advisories for Monday/Monday night. And we'll still have very strong winds impacting the higher terrain as the storm center approaches and then passes to west. Would not be surprised to have a few hurricane-force gusts at the peaks above 5k feet Monday night/early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Random hypothetical question - if this thing were to track inland over Florida, could it have interaction with Lake Okeechobee, the Everglades, or other wetlands? I.e. could wind/rain be enhanced, similar to a lake effect snow situation? It's going to flood either way (almost assuredly), but I'm thinking more about enhancing the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 46 minutes ago, shaggy said: Hard for me to believe she will carry hurricane force winds into the atlanta and charlotte areas seeing they have her as a depression up there. I'm digging through hurricanes that have (more or less) taken a similar path to compare: Hurricane King, 1950, Looks somewhat similar, but not as strong. Reports of 55MPH gusts as far north as Valdosta, a long way from northern Georgia, of course, but I'm still digging around.1945 Homestead has a somewhat similar potential path. Can't find much in the news about this outside of FL. Anyone know of other storms, especially Cat5 that ran the entire peninsula of FL? Any mets out there know how to get more in depth data on these two storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Random hypothetical question - if this thing were to track inland over Florida, could it have interaction with Lake Okeechobee, the Everglades, or other wetlands? I.e. could wind/rain be enhanced, similar to a lake effect snow situation? It's going to flood either way (almost assuredly), but I'm thinking more about enhancing the storm itself. Some canes have strengthened in that area south of Okeechobee before. Maintaining itself is more likely than anything. So it possible it doesn't start pronounced weakening until its north of Okeechobee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 41 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: May just be a wobble, but the eye definitely has some northern movement to it at the moment. Also, impressive how much the wind/rain shield has expanded. Outer bands already showing up on Miami radar. I saw that as well. That does not look like a wobble. Need to see a couple more hours of movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 hours ago, packfan98 said: What's the UKMET look like? It has been the furthest south and west for days. It was also predicting a Cuba hit. I already put a lot of weight in that model. To me, it's much more consistent than "king Euro." So this is just a crappy anecdotal observation but with hurricanes, winter storms, etc. over the years I think the UK has been quite good at sniffing out big track changes in advance and pretty poor at fine tuning the details of those shifts inside of 72h. I specifically remember tracking a winter storm (Miller with you guys a couple years ago and the UK nailed a path through northern AL and GA with a much farther north transfer days before the Euro and GFS caught on (which, of course, ended up sleeting/raining most of us expecting snow...again...). Anyway, UK was well into Cuba for some time and as all the other models came along it actually shifted to just off the coast and is kinda in the center of guidance now. Both the Duke blue lines on this are the UKMET (one may be ensemble mean? I'm honestly not sure of the difference. It looks like more than just a different interpolation but it's also not the previous run). https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 ^ Yeah, it appears that the UKMET and EURO are going to outperform the GFS with this one. Remember that the GFS had this hitting way up in the Northeast early on too. Keep the NAM for winter, but throw it out for tropical forecasting. Latest satellite images do indeed show a jog to the NW. Outflow looks stout, but no doubt it's not as imposing a look on satellite as before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Esasky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 How far north do we expect the tornado threat to stretch? ATL is forecast to be 65/59 on Monday, which seems impressively cool for a tropical system 10 days before the first day of autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Yeah, it appears that the UKMET and EURO are going to outperform the GFS with this one. Remember that the GFS had this hitting way up in the Northeast early on too. Keep the NAM for winter, but throw it out for tropical forecasting. Latest satellite images do indeed show a jog to the NW. Outflow looks stout, but no doubt it's not as imposing a look on satellite as before I don't see it hitting Cuba! Eye landfall based on radar/satellite loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said: How far north do we expect the tornado threat to stretch? ATL is forecast to be 65/59 on Monday, which seems impressively cool for a tropical system 10 days before the first day of autumn. The tornado threat will be dependent on the track itself. It will follow at and east of the center of circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Power Outage prediction as of this aftn - http://ioe-guikema.engin.umich.edu/Hurricane_Irma.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I know how everyone feels about the NAM, but for informational purposes, it's a good bit faster on this run and I think a bit east (though it's hard to tell due to the pretty significant speed differences). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 She just can't shake that dry air that's gotten into the core. That's usually the way it is with dry air. Every time the sat picture improves, it degrades again the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: She just can't shake that dry air that's gotten into the core. That's usually the way it is with dry air. Every time the sat picture improves, it degrades again the next hour. I'm still worried about that 24 hour run up to the coast. We've seen lots of storms struggle for days seemingly for little reason and finally get things sorted for substantial strengthening very quickly. Pretty much all the models had Irma steady state or struggling right now and they almost all have explosive development as it approaches Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This track looks bad for flooding rains in the southern mtns of North Carolina along the southern escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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