NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If Irma comes in south of Naples it will avoid a lot of the major metro areas. Itll be bad, espeacilly sw side Florida coastline But way better than than 30 -50 miles futher right. Then Miami will get plastered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Fwiw- TWC is calling for 86 mph wind gusts for Charlotte and 76 for Atlanta Monday night. Seems a bit high but maybe I am missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: Fwiw- TWC is calling for 86 mph wind gusts for Charlotte and 76 for Atlanta Monday night. Seems a bit high but maybe I am missing something. I doubt Charlotte gets 86 mph or Atlanta gets 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: Fwiw- TWC is calling for 86 mph wind gusts for Charlotte and 76 for Atlanta Monday night. Seems a bit high but maybe I am missing something. That sounds a bit extreme to me. Also I would think gusts would be higher in ATL and CLT considering the track, generally speaking. The latest GFS has most of us in the 50-70 mph gust range, and even that seems a bit high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Can you send the link to get this imagery? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/tc.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 From other Board. But HMON is showing what I think is growing more and more possible, west coast Florida trip as oppossed to much advertised east coast. Tampa would be thumped with this scenerio.If It avoids big Cuba disruption and makes it on Florida West Coast rides up, will have a big impact on you GA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 That is an ERC. Maybe some dry air too off of Cuba but it's an ERC. i don't see 60+ wind for ATL or CLT but I've made quite a few wrong assumptions about Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I doubt Charlotte gets 86 mph or Atlanta gets 76. How much for franklin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 @NCSNOW - with regard to storm surge that would be one scary track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Keep an eye on MW shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: How much for franklin? 3.14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Keep an eye on MW shortwave Progressive! Look at that kicker over SD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 28 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Can you send the link to get this imagery? I think the base path is here, and several interesting other things in there too, but the 24/48 hour loops are the main ones: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/ In the 48hr one, you can clearly see the replacement (and how MUCH this storm has expanded in the last 24): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: That is an ERC. Maybe some dry air too off of Cuba but it's an ERC. i don't see 60+ wind for ATL or CLT but I've made quite a few wrong assumptions about Irma. Wouldn't be surprised if we trend back to the east...does anyone have any data on actual paths vs. modeled paths? I don't recall such a western trend before...but could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 It was looking like she's been moving west, and the latest NHC advisory confirms it. She'll have to pull north quickly to avoid a Cuba landfall. It's low terrain in that area, but that's still land. LOCATION...22.0N 76.0W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 What's the UKMET look like? It has been the furthest south and west for days. It was also predicting a Cuba hit. I already put a lot of weight in that model. To me, it's much more consistent than "king Euro." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: What's the UKMET look like? It has been the furthest south and west for days. It was also predicting a Cuba hit. I already put a lot of weight in that model. To me, it's much more consistent than "king Euro." Very true. Looks like the 12z is just getting going. I'd check the main thread to see if anyone has it early, but I don't think I can handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2pm NHC UPDATE: Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 925 mb Max sustained: 155 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, packfan98 said: What's the UKMET look like? It has been the furthest south and west for days. It was also predicting a Cuba hit. I already put a lot of weight in that model. To me, it's much more consistent than "king Euro." Only images I see currently available for 12z UKMET....has IRMA over NW GA at 96 and over W TN at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Wouldn't be surprised if we trend back to the east...does anyone have any data on actual paths vs. modeled paths? I don't recall such a western trend before...but could be wrong. Go to this link, and click on your model of choice in the Trends section at the bottom left...it will show recent model tracks with the actual storm track superimposed http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Hard for me to believe she will carry hurricane force winds into the atlanta and charlotte areas seeing they have her as a depression up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, shaggy said: Hard for me to believe she will carry hurricane force winds into the atlanta and charlotte areas seeing they have her as a depression up there. Going to be hard for me to believe she avoids Cuba, at this point. Given the current heading and that the Euro now shows an impact with Cuba, I'm starting to think it's going to be hard for her to make landfall (assuming she does) in south Florida above a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Euro is way west,eastern gulf at 48.Also looked like into Cuba at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 1m1 minute ago The 12Z ECMWF has shifted even farther west into the Florida Keys with #Irma on Sunday. This is some good news for the Miami area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Solak said: Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 1m1 minute ago The 12Z ECMWF has shifted even farther west into the Florida Keys with #Irma on Sunday. This is some good news for the Miami area. Could you imagine if all those people who left the peninsula that may be in southern georgia or the panhandle are now suddenly in line for a hit if it slides up the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looks like a SW Fla hit,Naples maybe a bit south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 New EURO still showing those high wind gusts for the upstate and Western mountains of NC/SC N GA... 60 plus for most of WNC/Upstate and 80+ for some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, shaggy said: Hard for me to believe she will carry hurricane force winds into the atlanta and charlotte areas seeing they have her as a depression up there. Lookout said something earlier about the storm spreading out and the gradient between the wedge in N Ga and W Carolinas , leading to those crazy wind gusts modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: I doubt Charlotte gets 86 mph or Atlanta gets 76. Thanks Glenn Burns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 49 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Keep an eye on MW shortwave You look at that and its amazing to me she is plowing straight west....the flow over FL is SW to NE and pretty strong look the the clouds right along the SE coast screaming NE.....how she isnt already headed north or hell even NW is crazy to me, I guess the base of the trough is just a little to far north to grab her enough..most models pull that S/W over Kansas all the way to the gulf coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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