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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Lol That run just came out of nowhere. Do I trust the NAM? No but obviously there still is a small percentage that this could just be pulled away much further north and out to sea.

I don't know, I've seen a lot of crazy NAM runs totally out of line with other guidance. Can't say I ever remember any of them turning out to be right.

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If the models have the trough and ridge wrong it should start to really show up on the 00Z runs, we are into nowcasting time really, how Irma moves the next 12-24 hrs will decide where she goes....The NAM is probably a touch overdone with holding the trough back but it could also be the first of the models to correct back east if its even half right with the trough....also look for a decrease in forward speed that will indicate the turn is about to happen....

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22 minutes ago, griteater said:

As of 11AM today, Irma had 185mph winds for 37 hours, longest any cyclone around the globe has maintained that intensity on record.  Previous record was Haiyan in the W Pacific at 24 hours.  And as of 5PM, Irma had been a CAT 5 storm for 66 consecutive hours.  Satellite era (1966) record for Atlantic was 42 hours (Hurricanes Mitch and David).  Info from @philklotzbach.  

Irma is going to have one heck of a storm surge given the strong winds, long build up of waters, and large size.

Thanks grit. It's obliterating those past records! BTW, saw that Patricia from 2015 was the most intense ever recorded in Atlantic Basin. Lowest pressure was 872 and sustained winds of 215!!! I had forgotten about her. 

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1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. 

What am I missing?

The NAM just came in with an oddball way east run.

 

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1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. 

What am I missing?

The NAM came back east...that is all, and its the NAM but it could also be picking up on something with the trough hanging in longer and that could shift the track more east...

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1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. 

What am I missing?

One Model the NAM is showing a eastward move off the coast of FLA. and up the coast to Outer banks of NC . Not the most reliable model for hurricanes 

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3 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks more threatened?

What am I missing?

500mb Trough in NE is deeper and grabs Irma

 

SLvKGOd.png

 

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7 minutes ago, Regan said:

Yeah. They did. More west. The NHC keeps taking away and away. West and west. Not sure I buy it. Idk. 

I buy it. What's the pull it that far north? There is ridging to the east, and no real trough over the eastern US, just a weakness over the south. It's going to go into that and die. The question isn't how far east, but how far west. It's always been that. The more easterly runs just had less pull with that feature. Tweaks, if you will.

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The 3k NAM which did surprising well with Harvey has the center just offshore Miami then turning north, still would be a tough hit for the SE corner of Florida and the immediate coast.... it only goes out to 60hr but the setup is a bit more progressive with the trough and a touch more realistic IMO, the high placement over the GL would let it get up Charleston to ILM before landfall I bet, it doesnt have the high hanging back as far as the regular NAM so it would still end up moving NNW I think. Its basically the playbook for how this has to evolve to get the storm up this way. The question is what made it run that much more east this time around its been very close with the Euro and GFS for a few days now more or less. 

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1 minute ago, Regan said:

Really surprised by the editing on the NHC cone today. Really expected them to hang in there til tomorrow. Hate to see people write this off when they see this and it be premature. 

There are already people talking about FL evacuees going to Charleston to stay on Twitter. Even if the main part of the storm stays west of the Carolinas, it will still be good practice. But how awful is it going to be for Florida? You have to feel for those people.

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