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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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11 minutes ago, Regan said:

I'm hearing that the NHC is gonna shift a little at that 1 euro run?  They are really hugging the euro. Hope people don't let down their guards. 

5PM Discussion

"The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma.  This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward."

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

5PM Discussion

"The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma.  This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward."

Twc says it's not a significant shift so we need to make sure we keep it together. The cone will possibly move again and it could be east. 

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1 minute ago, senc30 said:

18Z GFS is starting. Let's see if it throws a wrench in things.

Yeah. Im curious about that too.  I think I'll wait for the 00z like Allan suggested. People were asking if we are ok in Nc nownand he said not to let your guards down and hold on for the 00z. I'd say that's good advice. 

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19 hours ago, UpStateCAD said:

Buckeye.   I have a place on Fripp Island that took significant damage last year with Matthew.  Basically the eye wall tan right into Harbor And Fripp Islands.  It was a category 2 at best at low tide and did tremendous damage out our way. 

This area is extremely low.  Look at the tidal flood maps.   The entire area is under water with a category 3.  Look up the deveatstion of the 1893 hurricane in the area.  Over 3000 killed.  

Watch this storm carefully and get out if the current trends continue. 

I'm watching :)  Thanks for the info!  I still can't believe all the damage still from Matthew :(  

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