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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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5 minutes ago, Snow haven said:

here is a link to all counties in GA with mandatory evacuations...can you imagine I-95 right now.

https://gov.georgia.gov/sites/gov.georgia.gov/files/related_files/press_release/Mandatory Evacuation Zones - Irma.jpg

Its not that bad yet, it is worse in SC with pockets of delays on 95 N

 

95 N in SC at MM 4

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This couldn't get any more f'd up for me if possible. I'm suppose to leave for the Isle of Palms on Saturday, but now it appears Gov. McMaster is going to issue an evacuation order Saturday morning so I'll be stuck here in Greenville. However if the 12z euro verifies, I'll be getting worse weather from Irma here in Greenville then I would be if we had just been able to go to IOP. I feel like banging my head against a brick wall right now.

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11 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

A lot of NC may not even get any rain from it. Lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Moisture will be streaming in off the Atlantic still. Places along the Blue Ridge escarpment will bet 4 to 6 inches plus and much of Nc West of CLT will get 2 plus. Areas around I 95 will get less but still 1 to 2 inches there with this current track

 


 

 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Interesting if she stayed that north of track for another 12 hrs it might actually start the models shifting back east....whats the link for where this came from I see CIMSS but I cant find it.

Outflow looks good in all directions, but that pesky NW quad is looking rough.

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24 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

keep in mind we will see these west/east runs on the models over the next 48hrs prior to the turn north.  25-50miles will make ALL the difference and we won't have a good handle until we are nowcasting it.

Yep...models are right until they are wrong lol...she is getting close to the point where models like Euro/Ukie etc take her more WNW....if she doesnt turn more west at all then the north turn will happen well east of Miami, probably on the east side of Andros island and that of course changes everything....you wouldnt think the models are that wrong this close but then again....this was the official NHC track based on modeling literally 12 hrs before it was thrown out.....12 hrs. 

matt.GIF.4affc72b05b627a8577d829104b20148.GIF

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32 minutes ago, bluffton21 said:

I'm new to this I'm trying to find most updated models anyone mind posting a link where I can find most updated models. 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Look for Global Models > GFS & ECMWF (Euro)

If you have questions, just ask. 

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I hope the lol at the end of the sentence means this is a joke. Cause I know you can't be serious 

 

 

Yes there should be some big rains probably the most in the Southwest Mountains if this track is to verify!! But much less of an impact than what it look like last night of course that could change and probably will change many times before Monday!!!

 

 

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Interesting if she stayed that north of track for another 12 hrs it might actually start the models shifting back east....whats the link for where this came from I see CIMSS but I cant find it.

Not sure that I'd agree with that. Looks like an immediate wobble and then stays parallel to the track. Still seems the timing and magnitude of the turn north is key for where she winds up.

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6 minutes ago, gman said:

A track through northeastern Georgia, would be much worse for the Upstate than if it went right over us, right? 

Yes I'm on the fence about leaving. If it keeps this current track I don't see the point. Me and the wife stay in West Ashley we bunkered in last year!!

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11 minutes ago, alhooks13 said:

Not sure that I'd agree with that. Looks like an immediate wobble and then stays parallel to the track. Still seems the timing and magnitude of the turn north is key for where she winds up.

The 00Z GFS last night ran it all the way to Miami then all the way to the SC/NC border...so in that sense it could get that far west and still go farther north, but in general the more west she tracks the more likely a GA hit is, if she ducks south of track and takes a more west heading close to Cuba then she wont feel the trough as much and be able to get south of Florida then turn up like the Euro had..and if she stays on her current heading or wobbles north then she probably turns father east and increase the chances of a Charleston to Wilmington landfall.

I feel pretty strongly that she will turn north close to Florida but if you consider it could be 50 miles either side of that point you get a 100 mile wide spread, that will have pretty big implications on the weather from Florida on north. The NHC track has Irma 120 miles SW of Andros island when she turns....if she stay on the current heading she would make the turn over Andros island thats a pretty big difference...

We will learn a lot I think over the next 12-24 hrs as to where she is going....

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