sctvman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester, Colleton County schools closed through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Sorry for the OT post, but curious why we havent heard from Matthew East on this? Come to think of it I havent seen his posts in a long while. Did I miss something or does he usually just hang around in winter? He hasn't been on here, but he posts videos to his facebook everyday making comments about what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I know you asked him but ATL stays on the "good" side of Irma. I personally just don't see much more than a couple inches of rain with winds around 35mph for the metro. Imo ATL gets their tropical hits from GOM storms barreling north out of the gulf. Ie Opal. Gotcha, just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something. I told the other half to start looking into hotels that would accept a cat there and in Birmingham. We can cancel if things end up looking fine but with that animal on our hands she'd better get started now. There's also the leave the cat option but it's better to work too many angles on this problem than not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Sorry for the OT post, but curious why we havent heard from Matthew East on this? Come to think of it I havent seen his posts in a long while. Did I miss something or does he usually just hang around in winter? I think I have seen him post some in the main thread some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GEFS mean is a little west of the OP and the 6z, but overall not much change. 13 of 20 make landfall over South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: GEFS mean is a little west of the OP and the 6z, but overall not much change. 13 of 20 make landfall over South Florida. It does looks like bulk of members take it up through Florida then off into the atlantic with a 2nd landfall in GA/SC. Matches up really well with the EPS consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: Here's the thing, the actual Irma track (red X's) has been verifying to the south of the GFS forecasted positions (AVN in image below). Same for HWRF. Euro has been more accurate. That gives credence to the 12z westward adjustment on the GFS with a track closer to the FL east coast. Savannah to Charleston in the cross hairs at the moment. I wonder what it is about the GFS/HWRF that it wants to send it north so quickly. 0z run HWRF wasn't even close to actual position. Euro looks locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 With the latest satellite imagery, Irma looks to be moving more a tick more NW than WNW as it was previously. The eyewall could miss the Turks and Caicos if it stays on that heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 A short interruption from our regularly scheduled program. I just want to thank you all for keeping this thread on topic with a minimum amount of drama and without the need for a mod to be looking over your shoulders. Since I've been spending a vast percentage of my time in the main thread, where none of the above is taking place, I wanted to make sure you all know how much I, and I'm sure our other mods, appreciate both the amount of information and the tone of this thread. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Solak said: If you're thinking about doing your prep work even far away from the current projected path, you might want to start now. Stores here in the Clayton/Smithfield area are already out of bread and water. WRAL did say we could see a half inch to an inch of rain from Irma. Not alarming, but most NCarolinians do rush for necessities when severe weather is a possibility. A brief snow flurry is all it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, avalanche said: WRAL did say we could see a half inch to an inch of rain from Irma. Not alarming, but most NCarolinians do rush for necessities when severe weather is a possibility. A brief snow flurry is all it takes. Big difference between flurry and hurricane....WRAL is also forecasting impacts on the current modeling, the reason the stores are seeing runs on supplies is many people in NC have seen these forecast before, we are a hurricane savvy crowd and we know how these things like to tease GA but end up in our neck of the woods. Better to be safe than sorry especially since the models probably wont shift much until the storm is off Florida and making its north turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro is rolling. Let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Euro is rolling. Let's see where she goes. Well, it's west at 48, close to Cuba border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Atlantic ridge looks a little weaker but Irma is further west and Jose is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yeah, definitely west this run. Landfall on the southwest coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Yeah, definitely west this run. Landfall on the southwest coast of FL. yeah, wow, gfs is shaking in its boots now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: yeah, wow, gfs is shaking in its boots now Along with Miami and the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 And now, we are back to it staying over land through FL. That would significantly lessen the impacts to the rest of SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Splits Florida in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Along with Miami and the Keys. Euro track is just east of the Labor Day Hurricane (1935), which hit in the Keys at 892mb, 185mph, 18-20 foot surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 One thing to look for as Irma pulls away from Florida is the likelihood of dry air getting entrained into the system with the system becoming asymmetrical with the precipitation to the north side of the storm and the southern eyewall opened up. How rapidly will the dry air weaken the storm? It will be interesting to see the changes evolve as the storm leaves Florida. As always, follow the advice of the NHC and your local NWS Forecasting Office for local action statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 One thing is becoming apparent is that Florida is going to be impacted in a big way with this storm. But still a lot of things to iron out. The Euro has been moving around about as much as the GFS has. Model consensus would be nice but we just are not getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro had Matthew too far west last year, will that happen with Irma? Something else to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Again one run. As we see from one run to another nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If this pans out, it would mean the UKMET led the way. It wouldn't be the first time. Ensembles will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Incredible. (credit Ryan Maue on Twitter) Edit to remove duplicate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If the Euro is right, folks evacuating to Atlanta are going to have issues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Incredible. (credit Ryan Maue on Twitter) Edit to remove duplicate that would be damaging for a lot of people. Floridia just gets ran through the buzzsaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgrego72 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 okay Being raised in Miami and school in florida this is a nightmare scenario I will take a hard pass on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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