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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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Going back and looking this current run of the operational GFS looks a lot like the 18Z run on Tuesday.  After that run it went back West.  Obviously the Bermuda HPS along with the ULL coming across is affecting the E vs. W solutions.  

What a nightmare to try and forecast!  Do you go with the latest or try to shoot the median?  Glad I am just a weather fan and not a TV met.

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2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

I still maintain my model mayhem prediction: Cape Outlook makes landfall on sunday or monday as a strong category 3 ... more of an intense annular configuration. 

 

Annular is used to describe almost perfectly round cat 5 storms on IR with no shear and perfect outflow. I've personally never heard it used to describe anything else. 

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3 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Stupid east trend. Stupid me for halfway believing there wouldn't be an east trend. Even though something like 98% of tropical cyclones since I was born have probably landfalled east of where predicted 48 hours off.

Rant over. Please proceed with normal unbiased observations/opinions/whatevs.
 

CMC actually had landfall in NC at 12Z today as well....thats 2 CMC runs in a row to NC, the GFS has had 2 hit NC in the last 24 hrs of runs, the east trend on north moving canes off the SE coast is pretty much climo so this at least for NC folks isnt unexpected. Whether or not its legit however wont be known for at least 4-5 more days :) 

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:


If the euro joins them then it will be interesting to see what NHC does at 5am.

 

They wont budge and they shouldnt....need to keep the Florida peeps on their toes the models still bring it real close to SE Florida....though they should move the next two plots off shore a bit to reflect the uncertainty and to push the cone north...

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Damn its late (reading emails at the same time) ...cape lookout for crying out loud!! ugh... sorry about that folks now that I ruined any credibility I had. annular configurations are used to describe storms that don't have a large percip shield and only have one eyewall with a large eye. Part of my thinking here is that fact we haven't really seen an eyewall replacement de-intensification yet. I think there is going to be a weird interaction with this dry airmass over Florida. 

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I think anyone who thought this would conform to a track 5 days out was kidding themselves. After watching tropical forecasting over the years, you can't narrow it down to a decent range until we're inside of 72 hours. This one is especially difficult given how close the bend right is to Florida.That said, the pattern does favor this movement. The cutoff over new england, if continues to trend slower, will continue to have more and more influence on Irma in the models as we near game-time. Would like to see the EURO jump on board before I believe a SC/NC landfall is possible. However, statistically, if this misses Florida, the most likely outcome is northern SC or NC climo-wise.

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15 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

CMC actually had landfall in NC at 12Z today as well....thats 2 CMC runs in a row to NC, the GFS has had 2 hit NC in the last 24 hrs of runs, the east trend on north moving canes off the SE coast is pretty much climo so this at least for NC folks isnt unexpected. Whether or not its legit however wont be known for at least 4-5 more days :) 

Alright sir, you have convinced me for the time being I shouldn't let this one GFS run make me panic too much. (Even though I want too)

May the odds be ever in our favor.

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16 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Annular is used to describe almost perfectly round cat 5 storms on IR with no shear and perfect outflow. I've personally never heard it used to describe anything else. 

This is a common disagreement in the MET community the definition isn't set in stone. The academic literature describes an annular cyclone as meeting the following criteria:

1. A tropical cyclone that maintains either an average or above average eye

2. An eyewall surrounding the eye containing deep convection  

3. An apparent "lack of convection occurring outside of the central dense overcast for at least three hours."

Signs of such a cyclone are the following:

1. storm intensity is about 75% (or more) of the maximum potential intensity 

2. eyewall replacement happens in an ocean with sea surface temperatures between 77°F – 83 °F

3. presence of eyewall mesovortices

 

Remember I'm saying this is a potential development... it isn't there yet. To you point the IR show this as a pretty round storm. Also I'm not sure if I'm the only person on here that sees this but it's currently a cat 5 storm.

Annular IR imagery examples

I think Isabel is a good analog for this storm...its image is fourth from left top row. Isabel was an angular hurricane.

 

TCRProductDevelopment_clip_image006.jpgwv.jpg 

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With the angle this is going to approach both Florida and the GA/SC/NC coastline it doesn't take much to drastically change where she comes on shore.  With the likely size and strength at both potential landfalls, though, impacts will be high regardless.  Once Irma makes the turn north even wobbles will make a significant difference in landfall location - that's going to be extremely difficult to pin down, so as has been noted a few times no need to get to bogged down with exact locations.  Overall guidance seems to imply that it's going to be dicey at best for South and East Florida, then anywhere from Savannah to ILM under the gun but even that can change.  Interesting few days ahead.

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Various stations saying barely touching Florida of at all then SC and possibly near NC, but at a cat 1@ 85mph. I've been seeing cat 3 or 4 in SC etc. Not sure why such weakening forecasted with little land disruption. Idk. Also seeing the NHC has delayed arrival too. 

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