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Hurricane Irma

downeastnc

By downeastnc,
in Southeastern States

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UpStateCAD

UpStateCAD

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I just moved here  :(   

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-carolina/gusts-3h-mph/20170912-0000z.html

Buckeye.   I have a place on Fripp Island that took significant damage last year with Matthew.  Basically the eye wall tan right into Harbor And Fripp Islands.  It was a category 2 at best at low tide and did tremendous damage out our way. 

This area is extremely low.  Look at the tidal flood maps.   The entire area is under water with a category 3.  Look up the deveatstion of the 1893 hurricane in the area.  Over 3000 killed.  

Watch this storm carefully and get out if the current trends continue. 

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YetAnotherRDUGuy

YetAnotherRDUGuy

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Well usually the right of track bias we see with north moving TC off the SE coast is because of the normal westerlies...almost all the storms that I can remember coming up the SE coast tended to be right of track due to that...this looks to be a exception once the NE high comes into play....I would not be surprised to see Irma moving N or even NNE for a time as she comes up the coast...the models even hint at it....so depending on how/when that high moves in and out for that matter will be what gets her going more NW....if the high is weaker or faster then she will go further north and stay mostly NNW or N after landfall, if its stronger slower etc she will get pushed NW well well inland and stall a bit...the models have been kinda all over with it, but they all have the high and chances of a escape completely OTS is probably fairly slim. 

Yea, I've tracked a lot of storms over the years, but this one seems different. It's interesting most models are now depicting a NW movement (as opposed to N or NNE) after landfall. Climo says that most storms don't do that. But I think most of the majors have. (Hugo and Fran come immediately to mind)

 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

I'm at hour 51 but the NAM is useless currently in this part of the storm in my opinion. 

Thanks. I wouldn't say useless. Right now it's a matter of getting info from all espeacilly ensembles and looking for pin point consensus then consistency. But yes it doesn't carry weight like Ukie and euro so I get your drift.. 

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ncskywarn

ncskywarn

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

As we prepare for the main events of the 0z model suite I'd just like to point out that the GFS is even losing to the freaking CMC now. America!

(also shout out to the Navy for having all of the worst 3 models) (and the HMON for tarnishing the GFDL's good name)

mae.png

Which line on here is the GFS?

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Posted

The problem is they all bounce around in the Bahamas run to run and unfortunately that is the crucial timing that we need the most guidance on....the NAM looks to be turning north over Andros....but its a good 50 miles or so west of the previous run but they all are doing that and that 50 miles is kind of a big deal for downstream....and especially for Miami and SE Florida. 

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Thanks. I wouldn't say useless. Right now it's a matter of getting info from all espeacilly ensembles and looking for pin point consensus then consistency. But yes it doesn't carry weight like Ukie and euro so I get your drift.. 

Yeah you know what I mean. It being this far out at sea. I think the closer Irma gets the better the model will have a handle on things. Especially when we get in under 48 hours from landfall or at least the north turn.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The problem is they all bounce around in the Bahamas run to run and unfortunately that is the crucial timing that we need the most guidance on....the NAM looks to be turning north over Andros....but its a good 50 miles or so west of the previous run but they all are doing that and that 50 miles is kind of a big deal for downstream....and especially for Miami and SE Florida. 

Yep very good assessment. Too much in the way of turning here or turning there. West to east. 50 miles is a huge difference especially talking about a FL landfall. Shoot 25 miles is a big deal. 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yep very good assessment. Too much in the way of turning here or turning there. West to east. 50 miles is a huge difference especially talking about a FL landfall. Shoot 25 miles is a big deal. 

Basically we wont know for sure until she friggen turns.....Miami just needs to hope she turns far enough out to keep the hurricane winds offshore....

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
Just now, downeastnc said:

Basically we wont know for sure until she friggen turns.....Miami just needs to hope she turns far enough out to keep the hurricane winds offshore....

Yeah I agree. This thing is going to have to come a lot closer to FL I believe before we can really grasp when the turn will happen. The trough will need to be kept an eye on also. Lots of little/big players on the board.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Yeah I agree. This thing is going to have to come a lot closer to FL I believe before we can really grasp when the turn will happen. The trough will need to be kept an eye on also. Lots of little/big players on the board.

The Nam keeps the center 120 miles off the Florida coast that would spare them hurricane force winds being its the west side, heck they might not even gust much higher than 75 on that track....

If the NAM is right about the trough still hanging out over NE  and that ULL over New Orleans then Irma is gonna scoot N or NNE even pretty quickly 

namconus_z500_vort_seus_50.thumb.png.a970720438157d3af164996f65d99ef9.png

 

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The Nam keeps the center 120 miles off the Florida coast that would spare them hurricane force winds being its the west side, heck they might not even gust much higher than 75 on that track....

If the NAM is right about the trough still hanging out over NE  and that ULL over New Orleans then Irma is gonna scoot N or NNE even pretty quickly 

namconus_z500_vort_seus_50.thumb.png.a970720438157d3af164996f65d99ef9.png

 

Yeah I just don't put much faith in that timeframe of the NAM. I do think we may see some wild swings still from the models given the amount of time we have between now and then. Anything is still a go. 

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zenmsav6810

zenmsav6810

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

 

The NAM does not make landfall in FL. It stays off the coast but would probably still impact the coastline a lot.

Probably a best case scenario in terms of outcome. A glancing hit, with no one taking the full on hit probably creates widespread damage and flooding but nothing gets truly wiped off the map. Reminds me of a Matthew like outcome. Best to keep this in the state of Florida, which outside of Maimi-- is the best prepared state. I think the Carolinas will be ground zero. Ancient history tells us tales of Cat 5's hitting Cape outlook. 

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
Just now, zenmsav6810 said:

Probably a best case scenario in terms of outcome. A glancing hit, with no one taking the full on hit probably creates widespread damage and flooding but nothing gets truly wiped off the map. Reminds me of a Matthew like outcome. Best to keep this in the state of Florida, which outside of Maimi-- is the best prepared state. I think the Carolinas will be ground zero. Ancient history tells us tales of Cat 5's hitting Cape outlook. 

Yeah it is just way too early to speculate. Again this is the 84 hour NAM we are talking about. A model I do not trust in this time frame. We have superior models ahead of the NAM that I would put more weight in currently. But yes that would be the best case scenario for Irma and for the Coast of FL. 

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

So basically they really have no clue. Per nhc disco at 1100pm

 

There has been a slight eastward shift in
some of the track guidance models, but since the models could shift
back to the west it is prudent to make little change to the
official forecast at this time.  In any event, users are reminded
not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, shaggy said:

So basically they really have no clue. Per nhc disco at 1100pm

 

There has been a slight eastward shift in
some of the track guidance models, but since the models could shift
back to the west it is prudent to make little change to the
official forecast at this time.  In any event, users are reminded
not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

I suspect they want to keep it conservative in S Florida and make sure that places like the western Keys don't let their guard down. 

So, the hurricane center best track has Irma with 140mph winds north of Miami on the FL coast at 8pm Sun, and at 110mph winds with landfall at Savannah 8pm Mon.  I do wonder if it would weaken that much if it's a glancing blow in S Florida.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

I suspect they want to keep it conservative in S Florida and make sure that places like the western Keys don't let their guard down. 

So, the hurricane center best track has Irma with 140mph winds north of Miami on the FL coast at 8pm Sun, and at 110mph winds with landfall at Savannah 8pm Mon.  I do wonder if it would weaken that much if it's a glancing blow in S Florida.

The NHC passingly mentions shear.....if its SW shear and strong enough to hurt the cane that much I bet you anything its more east than where they have it....  

The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one except at day 5 when
stronger shear should cause more weakening.  This forecast is
generally above the intensity model consensus.
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Sactown4

Sactown4

Posted
Posted

Hi guys, 

Hoping someone can help me out here.  Was meant to be on vacation in Fort Lauderdale till Sunday evening, and obviously needed to cut that short.

Was able to book a flight out of Orlando for early Saturday afternoon.  Do you think that flights will still be taking off then, or are we out of luck?

Thanks

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