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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

They are all pretty close really, but 50 miles on either side of where it turns makes a huge difference for both south Florida and locations up the coast. The model tracks are clustered more narrow than the NHC cone at this point by the look of things.

Good point.  It also shows why the Hurricane Center doesn't make huge shifts in their track every 3 hours.  Slow adjustments and trust the cone.

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4 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Nam still convinced it turns early. 

namconus_mslp_uv850_seus_53.png

Watching these runs the last 4 days or so has been like watching a windshield wiper. Here in NC I guess we need to expect anything. Plan for the worst. Hope for the best. Can't shake the feeling it'll be like the NAM, turn early, and slam into NC. Wouldn't be the first time. I'm burnt. 

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One difference in the path Irma takes in the Bahamas seems to be a little finger ridge the models have that cause that WNW motion in the Bahamas....this type of feature is really hard for the models to predict even a few days out.

Here is the 18Z last night that has the NC hit notice the 591 line is broken down and allowing a more north motion....

59b05192aefc8_18zhit.thumb.png.e85a7fa353f0d5f08ceafaa1ac72016d.png

Here is the latest GFS run showing the finger ridge stronger thus Irma goes more WSW...

59b0512a94e22_12zm.thumb.png.b2ed265b0868496d77a4cdfada130525.png

 

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37 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The model agreement for being so far out right now is quite good TBH for it being 5 days out....especially after so much spread on the ensembles. The 18z tropical models are also in line. 

 

 

Indeed....areas with any elevation are going to especially prone if such a track pans out. 

 

11L_tracks_18z.png

The other thing with this will be the rains, obviously, but most of the Carolinas have had a relatively wet summer, so this , with the tropical rains, and winds in the areas as modeled today, could multiply all of the damages! 

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If it's not a wobble and is an actual trend to the north, that will affect the track down the line. It's close to getting to the point that 50 miles north now could be terrible for someone in 4 days. Still so long to go with this storm and honestly, the track will change probably 15 times between then and now. I go back to as recently as last year with some of.the models and professionals saying Matthew was going into Florida. 4 days later, my house say in the middle of 4 foot of water. 

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1 minute ago, senc30 said:

The NAM(yes I know, not the best) showed before any of them the Northward turn. It's running now and is north and slightly east of it's last run at 69

Your 100% correct. I like everyone else have the old sterotypes about the Nam, but it face slapped alot of folks on couple occasions last winter. Ive learn to pay attn to it for various reasons. Doesnt mean you write in stone what its saying but its not the dead hoarse it use to be.

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

911 mb, the lowest on Solaks post! Incredible! Thanks for posting!

Must not have made it into the Hur Update...

4:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6
Location: 18.7°N 65.1°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 920 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

 

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Here are 6 examples of tropical systems in the historical record tracking along or just off Florida's east coast, with strength evolution shown from Florida to GA/Carolinas 

3 of the 6 weakened

2 of the 6 maintained its category strength

1 of the 6 strengthened

 

Hurricane (1885) - strengthened from Tropical Storm to CAT2

DXsamkM.gif\

 

Hurricane Cleo (1964) - weakened from CAT2 to Tropical Storm

qv8XgUI.gif

 

Hurricane David (1979) - strengthened from CAT1 to CAT2, then weakened to CAT1 - first hurricane I remember as a kid in Charlotte

MOxPB9f.gif

 

Hurricane Dennis (1981) - maintained tropical storm status

hHL49pZ.gif

 

Hurricane Irene (1999) - maintained CAT1 strength

icKsftn.gif

 

Hurricane Matthew - weakened from CAT4 to CAT1

xy6PRBm.gif

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1 minute ago, Solak said:

Must not have made it into the Hur Update...

4:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6
Location: 18.7°N 65.1°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 920 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

 

I imagine they avg them all, but still a lot were in the mid teens! It's looking really good now, I think it hits sub 910 by next advisory !! ( 8pm)?

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