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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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The motion the Euro run has between 48 and 72 hrs is the crucial part of the run, thats pretty WNW, when the models run with that motion the storm hits further west...when the track stays more NW it gets further up the coast,  when the cane gets there and how it tracks during that period should clear up a lot with regards to who on the SE coast gets a hit....thats still 2 days away 

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3 minutes ago, jburns said:

Agreed but we are in some unusual territory here.  It's not often a hurricane can hit a major city, stay over land for a few hours, take a 50 mph hit in wind velocity and still come back offshore as a major. Pretty amazing when you think about it.

I agree.  I'm not sure it will be that strong when it reemerges off the FL coast, though.  I know that's what the model is showing, but my guess would be that it's weaker than that and will be in a state of weakening.  It will take some time to stabilize and then restrengthen.  I don't know how many times I've seen out in model-land a cane move over land and then rapidly strengthen as soon as it hits water, only to reemerge in real life weaker and remain in a discombobulated state for quite a bit longer than the models are showing.  This one may be different.  I mean, we are dealing with a rare storm here, and upper level winds will be favorable, along with high octane SSTs.

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I'm in the boat right now where seeing these runs coming in back and forth makes me weary what to expect. For all we know this Sc/Ga talk is wrong and it comes in the Nc coast and plows us. Wow. How many more days of this?  Anyone else know what to make of the runs seeming all over the place. I too went through Fran. I was a sophomore in high school at the time.  

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I agree.  I'm not sure it will be that strong when it reemerges off the FL coast, though.  I know that's what the model is showing, but my guess would be that it's weaker than that and will be in a state of weakening.  It will take some time to stabilize and then restrengthen.  I don't know how many times I've seen out in model-land a cane move over land and then rapidly strengthen as soon as it hits water, only to reemerge in real life weaker and remain in a discombobulated state for quite a bit longer than the models are showing.  This one may be different.  I mean, we are dealing with a rare storm here, and upper level winds will be favorable, along with high octane SSTs.

agree but this thing is STILL 185mph and I think it makes a run at 200 in the straits as it approaches fl.  even if it weakens 50-60mph we are looking at a high end cat 4 still as it comes offshore.  very worrying for the coast and us inland for sure.

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5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Showing hurricane force gusts up to CLT

yep...charlotte  might get gusts as high as 85 to 90  according to this run...as well as most of sc.  close to  hurricane force gusts even as far west as my location (frame before this one) 

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090612_138_487_379.png

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

yep...charlotte  might get gusts as high as 85 to 90  according to this run...as well as most of sc.  close to  hurricane force gusts even as far west as my location (frame before this one) 

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090612_138_487_379.png

That could be very damaging for the mountains also. Even just TS gusts would be enough to bring down trees especially if we are seeing flooding rains from the remnants of Irma. Also to note the interaction with the trough that looks to come in on top of this storm once it moves up this way. A lot of moving pieces, a lot of uncertainty, a lot we just do not know. One thing we do know is this is a Cat 5 hurricane that is a bad mofo and does not look to slow down anytime soon. 

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

Pretty dang good consensus from 12z GFS/UKMET/EURO of track along or just east of FL coast, then up to Savannah to Charleston.

Yep I saw the 3 models laid side by side and remarkable consensus. Looking at those Bulging HPS on H5 maps Im in the camp this runs the Florida penisula longer verse OTS or getting back over water before a second landfall. If what we are seeing today is correct in regards to Bermuda HP and the one up over Ohio Valley on the euro op. Course it will change a hair or 2 guranteed next few days and we all know that can and will cause major changes to alot of folks sensible weather.

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9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That could be very damaging for the mountains also. Even just TS gusts would be enough to bring down trees especially if we are seeing flooding rains from the remnants of Irma. Also to note the interaction with the trough that looks to come in on top of this storm once it moves up this way. A lot of moving pieces, a lot of uncertainty, a lot we just do not know. One thing we do know is this is a Cat 5 hurricane that is a bad mofo and does not look to slow down anytime soon. 

Not liking this look for the mountains AT ALL!

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Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Nowhere to displace water up here except into the valleys. Tons of rain + high winds = down trees and bank erosion. A Peeks Creek Disaster 2.0 is in order with this setup.

Yeah this is worst case scenario for sure. We have been pretty wet here recently also. We just had 2 plus inches the past 24 hours then we had rain last week and know maybe 5 plus coming towards the first of next week. This storm will be a bad nightmare for all it affects in my opinion. There will be no sugar coating this thing if it continues to hold together. 

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I won't post the entire discussion here, but this is a critically important point to make right now (from NWS GSP's disco):

AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: I'LL BEGIN THIS DISCUSSION WITH SOME   TRIVIA - DID YOU KNOW THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN A 5-DAY   TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST IS ABOUT 200 NAUTICAL MILES? FOR REFERENCE,   THAT'S ABOUT TWICE THE WIDTH OF THE FL PENINSULA, AND AN ERROR THAT   SIZE COULD DRAMATICALLY CHANGE IMPACTS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM   IS ACTUALLY GREATER THAN USUAL, AND THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED   AND WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE GOING FORWARD. THIS ONLY UNDERSCORES THE   NEED FOR EVERYONE IN THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA TO STAY ALERT AND   PREPARED.  

It's a great discussion though, and I'd suggest everybody read it. 

http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KGSP.html

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For those interested, the afternoon forecast discussion is out from GSP.  I am also including the Charleston NWS link even though theirs is not out for the afternoon...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CHS&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

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31 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yep I saw the 3 models laid side by side and remarkable consensus. Looking at those Bulging HPS on H5 maps Im in the camp this runs the Florida penisula longer verse OTS or getting back over water before a second landfall. If what we are seeing today is correct in regards to Bermuda HP and the one up over Ohio Valley on the euro op. Course it will change a hair or 2 guranteed next few days and we all know that can and will cause major changes to alot of folks sensible weather.

The model agreement for being so far out right now is quite good TBH for it being 5 days out....especially after so much spread on the ensembles. The 18z tropical models are also in line. 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I am not either... Most tracks recently put us in a major bullseye for flooding rains and heavy winds. This is a beast and cannot be taken lightly, not even up here. 

Indeed....areas with any elevation are going to especially prone if such a track pans out. 

 

11L_tracks_18z.png

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