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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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So I wonder when the NHC will give these runs some cred....there is a world of difference between the Euro and GFS now and honestly only one is keeping the pressure even remotely close to reality. I suspect the GFS will float around a bit up and down the SE Coast for a few more days, hell we will be watching every wobble as it comes up the coast since those wobbles can mean the difference between Charleston and Wilmington.  Gonna be hell on the NHC if the Euro sticks to the Cuba track....

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So it does seem like this has been the most modeled solution, yes? Just north of Cuba, turns N on or near the east coast of FL and then landfall in GA/SC as it's turning back NW. I'm not suggesting toss the Euro or anything but taking that into account along with the general pattern and climo it does seem to be perhaps the most plausible solution.

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

So I wonder when the NHC will give these runs some cred....there is a world of difference between the Euro and GFS now and honestly only one is keeping the pressure even remotely close to reality. I suspect the GFS will float around a bit up and down the SE Coast for a few more days, hell we will be watching every wobble as it comes up the coast since those wobbles can mean the difference between Charleston and Wilmington.  Gonna be hell on the NHC if the Euro sticks to the Cuba track....

Need GEFS to tick east of Miami to believe it.  UK ticked east a little, need better maps.  

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

This run is a colossal disaster for much of the SC low country just factoring in surge. 

Imagine the surge with a storm that big, with pressures probably in the 920-940 range,  that has been that strong for that long.....where ever it comes in at will see probably record surge. 

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6 minutes ago, FatherNature said:

If you look at the overnight runs from Saturday night compared to the 0z, crazy how it's trending back to that Carolina solution for GFS

At this rate, with this storm you'll wake up tomorrow and everything will be heading to the Gulf. Nothing has been easy to track with this storm.

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All that Euro hate in this thread and now it looks more like an Eastern FL hit while working Irma up into GA/SC after her tango with FL.  Apparently the GFS and EURO took steps towards each other at 0z.  

 

And again the pressure difference at initialization has no impact on the path the model projects.  This is definitely not your typical clean recurring CV storm that wrecks the eastern tip of NC like so many storms of the past.  

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Woke up this morning to see a tweet from RaleighWX saying:

"00z major global models ensemble members,with the strike probability from the ECMWF/CMC/GFS families to the right #Irma Shift east overnight"

and saw the NHC made a major change to their cone.  So shift east from both models I'm seeing. Mean landfalls mid SC coast (putting imo NC back in the realm) after staying offshore Florida possibly. 

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