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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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2 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Looks to be about the same solution as the 18z model.. I guess we are starting to see a general consensus. .. Not sure we will see much of a correction back to the east

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It's been said before but I'll reiterate, its way too early to be making calls like this. New Orleans wasn't even forecasted to be in the path of Katrina until 3 days out. Still lots of time for things to change.

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39 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way
... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement

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Keep in mind that the average error on a day 4 and 5 on the NHC cone is 200 miles. To say that the East Coast is out of the woods with no big effects is very premature. 

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49 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Keep in mind that the average error on a day 4 and 5 on the NHC cone is 200 miles. To say that the East Coast is out of the woods with no big effects is very premature. 

Cantore says 225 miles. I've seen 250 miles error too. Point is, it could come up west, middle or east of/on Florida. We can't let our guards down on the east coast yet. 

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8 minutes ago, Regan said:

Cantore says 225 miles. I've seen 250 miles error too. Point is, it could come up west, middle or east of/on Florida. We can't let our guards down on the east coast yet. 

So says yhe 6z GFS.  Hello Miami.  Let me swing by on my way to devastate Charleston SC.  This is catastrophic for much of the southeast......coast and interior.  Not much of a way out at this point.

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1 hour ago, timnc910 said:

All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way
... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement

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The 06z GFS says hello.

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1 hour ago, timnc910 said:

All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way
... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement

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The 06z GFS goes Lee Corso and says, "Not so fast."

This is why you never make statements like this so far out from landfall. No one on the east coast should let their guard down yet. 

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2 hours ago, timnc910 said:

All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way
... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement

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Read more and post less. This is an idiotic statement to say the least. Keep the banter in the appropriate thread before you find yourself in timeout  

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11 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

Euro is a good bit west of the GFS.  And not as strong.   Some of these sub 900MB solutions are very hard for me to buy.    6Z GEFS is east of the OP, by a decent margin.

 

gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_26.png

gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_28.png

 

 

 

Is that a PRE event showing up on the ensembles, or simply the upslope over the piedmont and mtns?

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33 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

175mph gust(?) surface wind found.....just wow  :yikes:

That will effectively relocate your house.....the crappiest part is there is ZERO chance the models will nail that turn this far out, hell we wont be sure exactly were until it actually turns....the turn just happens to be modeled to be in a area where 100 miles one way or the other has HUGE ramifications for literally millions of people. Best thing that happens now is the models have the ridging to strong and she never gets that far west and ends up east OTS otherwise someone is probably getting a Cat 5. Need this thing to start gaining some Lat fast otherwise the NE islands are toast. 

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6z GEFS looks to be roughly in the center of EPS cone...if you are in Florida not sure what you do.  

One thing about the EPS for the tracks east of FL.... tracks are either re-curving off coastal NC or they are hooking back in over GA/SC.  Still a miss wide right on the table.

11L_gefs_06z.png

DI9IZMkVAAE1m7a.jpg

 

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