Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: Naso much. Imo tracks of hurricanes are much easier to predict. The steering patterns are more stable. No precip issues etc. Not sure stable is the term I'd use in reference to a D10+ hurricane track. The actual existence of the storm itself might be more stable. And you also don't have the added complexity of freezing levels, warm noses, and wedging to worry about. So it might be easier to say a D10 hurricane will be there than it is to say a D10 snowstorm will be there, but the "where is 'there'?" question is still really hard to pin down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not sure stable is the term I'd use in reference to a D10+ hurricane track. The actual existence of the storm itself might be more stable. And you also don't have the added complexity of freezing levels, warm noses, and wedging to worry about. So it might be easier to say a D10 hurricane will be there than it is to say a D10 snowstorm will be there, but the "where is 'there'?" question is still really hard to pin down. Personally I wouldn't take anywhere off the table before the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Personally I wouldn't take anywhere off the table before the middle of next week. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The 18z GEFS has a ton of SE hits. Almost all members would effect some part of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, packfan98 said: The 18z GEFS has a ton of SE hits. Almost all members would effect some part of the SE. Yeah like 99% and they're all SW of if the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yeah when I saw the 18Z GFS all I saw was a west trend with landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The models are obviously gung-ho on its intensity in the western Atlantic, but one thing I'd watch for down the road is ingestion of dry air. This has ample time for multiple ERCs, and as its size grows and it moves westward it'll be able to more easily pull in continental air. It's no coincidence that cat 3+ hurricane landfalls are very, very rare north of southern FL. Most CV hurricanes that peak early as a cat 4/5 and make it to the US east coast do so as large cat 2s (Floyd, Isabel, Frances being the best examples). Large, major hurricanes approaching the northern Gulf coast often face the same issue. And as I recall, models tend to significantly underestimate the degree of weakening these beasts experience prior to landfall, which should serve as a cautionary tale to the more extreme outputs here. I'm not saying a cat 3+ east coast landfall can't happen with this long-tracker -- Hugo proves that it's possible under the right conditions -- but don't sleep on climatology, which in this situation often holds even in the face of exaggerated model forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GSP AFD going with models looking likely to have a recurve out to sea! Guess they should have waited on the 18z GFS and gefs ! Said also looks to have limited affect/impact on our area.? Kind of early to be putting that out there in my opinion!? They did mention to stay aware, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's unusual to see the GFS Operational run outside of the ensemble members like that, even at an extended timeframe. I wonder if it's a rogue run. Here's the last 3 runs of the GFS Ens Mean w/ individual members embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: It's unusual to see the GFS Operational run outside of the ensemble members like that, even at an extended timeframe. Here's the last 3 runs of the GFS Ens Mean w/ individual members embedded Well the trend is obvious.....the Euro did the same thing its ens, they trended north from a GOM type path to a Bahamas path several runs before the Op moved...seems there is a fairly good consensus for this thing to at least get into the eastern Bahamas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, griteater said: It's unusual to see the GFS Operational run outside of the ensemble members like that, even at an extended timeframe. I wonder if it's a rogue run. Here's the last 3 runs of the GFS Ens Mean w/ individual members embedded The run today just look like the Atlantic ridge is stronger and noses further west, pushing it further SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Whoever gets hit with this would be wise to make some pre-arrangements with surrounding states for some rapid response aid. FEMA has pretty much gone all in on Texas and the response from them would be slow and weak at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, jburns said: Whoever gets hit with this would be wise to make some pre-arrangements with surrounding states for some rapid response aid. FEMA has pretty much gone all in on Texas and the response from them would be slow and weak at best. yeah imagine if it does hit, crazy if it does seeing how we went what 12 years or so without a major hitting the US and now we might be getting two inside of a month....also I dont envy you at all when it comes to modding that main tropical thread the NE weenies in full on crazy mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: yeah imagine if it does hit, crazy if it does seeing how we went what 12 years or so without a major hitting the US and now we might be getting two inside of a month....also I dont envy you at all when it comes to modding that main tropical thread the NE weenies in full on crazy mode right now. I mod fairly loosely when a storm is this far out and gradually tighten up when things begin to get serious. Once it begins to directly affect an area the screws are fully tightened and everything off topic is deleted. It's much easier than modding the political board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The run today just look like the Atlantic ridge is stronger and noses further west, pushing it further SW? Yeah, did see some of that. There's a lot going on there with how the storm interacts with the W ATL ridging and E US trough diving down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 My 2 cents: Sitting here thinking this exact time next week it's highly likely this board will probably be in storm mode and alot of the SE regs will be on here on pins and needles. Everything is game right now from Florida , NE, to OTS. But getting a bad vibe each model cycle with this one. Biggest reason is haven't seen 1 even hint or suggestion from all models this storm at a minimum doesn't make it to or pass 35 north as a major cat 3. Next like others, I pay alot of attn to ensembles from globals and the foreign guidance this far out. To me they keep trending way more in favor and more consistently that the ridge in the Atlantic is gonna be very stout. Long ways to go and alot will/ can change. But as Labor day winds down and we head back to work in 72 - 96 hours we are going to have a pretty decent idea just how much trouble we may be in and who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 NHC going with the Euro right now. The initial motion remains 275/12 kt. The hurricane has moved a little farther north than previously expected, and the track has been adjusted in that direction. Overall, the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed, and Irma is still expected to turn west-southwestward on Saturday due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. After about 72 h, there remains a large north-south spread in the guidance, with the GFS continuing to show a weaker ridge (and a northern track), while the ECMWF shows a stronger ridge/southern track. The ECMWF has performed better for Irma thus far, so my forecast continues to favor that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looking at the trends on the Euro and GFS Ensemble means, they have essentially converged. Euro Ens has trended north and the GFS Ens has trended south. Personally, I would lean more to a far E NC or off the coast solution right now (as opposed to FL to SC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS is further SW versus 18Z thru 126..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Too soon to get excited but close to getting concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like Delmarva Peninsula pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, jburns said: Too soon to get excited but close to getting concerned. yeah realistically we looking at what 10 days out lol.....that said I had already had this upcoming week off from work so I will use it to do a few extra things and honestly if by Wed this thing is still a threat I will stock up on water, batteries and other non perishables...might even put a gennie on the Lowes card cause if this one comes in, it almost guarantees a few weeks of no power with the size and strength of the modeled wind fields. This GFS run is a hit around VA/MD border so the west trend is obvious......no model is currently fishing this system all models have or imply a landfall between Fl and VA sure hope they are wrong....in the end though Charleston to Hatteras is the most likely landfall spot cause thats where they always go, the trends today have not been encouraging thankfully we still have 10 days for that to change......cause a Cat 4 on a Floyd track would be so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Not to mention a Fran or Hugo track. Yeah that could be where the GFS is headed though right now it appears a more Floyd/Bertha/Irene type track is likely but as we get closer the evolution of trough and possible cutting off ULL over the Miss Valley could change all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 0Z GEM goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro trying to go Hugo with a Charleston area landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Actually looks like the 18Z GFS Ensemble mean and the 00Z Euro are pretty close to each other. GFS ensemble wants to make landfall near Hilton head and euro is north near Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro has been pretty consistent last couple runs with a east coast landfall.. It's still 10 days away and can't take every model seriously but you can see the overall pattern and looks like the models are starting to trend to somewhat of an agreement that Irma most likely will not go ots..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 hours ago, jburns said: Too soon to get excited but close to getting concerned. Good way of putting it. I'm not making a Sam's Club run, but firing up the generator to make sure it's tuned up is on today's agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: Good way of putting it. I'm not making a Sam's Club run, but firing up the generator to make sure it's tuned up is on today's agenda. Exactly. I posted very early in this thread that I hoped each of you had a plan in place and stair stepped into it as we get closer. For most of us (inland) you should be preparing for service disruptions tied to extended power outages. I've already knocked out water / drinks, batteries and shelf stable foods. I have loaded my freezer with water panels which will add another 2-3 days to the life of my food that needs cold storage. I have knocked out gas for the generator and 2 propane tanks for the grill. This weekend I will clean yard debris and burn, trim any trees and bushes around the house and take inventory of loose items that need to be stored. If I lived near the coast I would already have a hotel room booked inland. Early bird gets the worm, and gets to live folks! Prep a little each day! Does anyone have a good Hugo storm impact recap that could be posted as a reminder for those who are too young to remember or those who are new to the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Ser Pounce said: Good way of putting it. I'm not making a Sam's Club run, but firing up the generator to make sure it's tuned up is on today's agenda. Yepp, generator ,propane ,water, diesel and gas. Chainsaws sharpened. Seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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