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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

LithiaWx, you gonna chase this one? Only about a 12 hour drive!

Oh hell no.  A slow moving, possibly stalling, possibly intensifying cat 3 or 4.  Catastrophic flooding.  I'm good bro. 

 

Only saving grace I can see is upwelling if it moves slowly.  That said I've seen some suggestions this thing will intensify up to landfall.  Very dangerous and described very well in the main thread.  Weakening vs. intensifying at LF. 

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50 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Oh hell no.  A slow moving, possibly stalling, possibly intensifying cat 3 or 4.  Catastrophic flooding.  I'm good bro. 

 

Only saving grace I can see is upwelling if it moves slowly.  That said I've seen some suggestions this thing will intensify up to landfall.  Very dangerous and described very well in the main thread.  Weakening vs. intensifying at LF. 

Good choice. Even if you stay well inland to avoid the worst, this has the potential to be one of those where you only see storm force winds but your car is under 8 feet of water.  No fun in that.

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56 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Oh hell no.  A slow moving, possibly stalling, possibly intensifying cat 3 or 4.  Catastrophic flooding.  I'm good bro. 

 

Only saving grace I can see is upwelling if it moves slowly.  That said I've seen some suggestions this thing will intensify up to landfall.  Very dangerous and described very well in the main thread.  Weakening vs. intensifying at LF. 

I agree, this one looks very dangerous with the flooding potential. 

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The HMON replaced the GFDL early this summer as a new non-hydrostatic hurricane model. Right now it appears that it uses the same dynamic core as the NAM and SREF. Hence why the NAM 3k and the HMON are blowing this thing up to ridiculously strong storms. It has shown improvement in forecasting capabilities over the GFDL, especially in the short term, but it still has a ways to go in terms of its development. For now, the HWRF would be the best hurricane model to use operationally, especially when you have a well-defined and established storm. The 940-950mb it keeps spitting out seems well within the realm of possibilities.  

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pressure has dropped like 15mb over past few hours in 940s territory now. Gonna be a beast and one for the history books.

*** Its time to quit dismissing the NAM inside 48 hrs. Its had the right idea all along. We learned this the hard way this past winter. It is high res and can see things the globals miss short range. Talking about warm noses etc. Has done a great consistent job advertising Harvey was going to RI/ Bomb out. Be wise and fill up with gas before its goes through the roof price wise throughout next week. Major disruption supply side is fixing to take place moreso from inland flooding

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2 hours ago, Wow said:

The Euro path is scary with a two-time Cat 2/3 hit. First near Corpus then kicks back out over the GOM and hits Houston.  40+" of rainfall over most of the TX coast line.

Truly a horrific forecast for the Texas gulf coast. Not sure we have ever seen a cat 3 stall on the coast and maintain hurricane strength for as long as this has the potential to have we? 

Edit: With this system not expected to drop TS status for the entire 5 day period this is going to be really bad for even the inland areas as far as wind damage goes. With all that rain and soaked ground it will not take much wind to start toppling trees. This really has the potential to leave people without power for extended periods of time. 

The duration of Irene is what caused much of our wind damage. She blew from 3am until 11pm and tree and roof damage was worse with Irene than with some of our other higher wind hurricanes.

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