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Invest 92L


NJwx85

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8 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Looking at the 12z guidance it would appear to my untrained eye that the GFS GEFS Euro and the Hurricane models  HWRF and HMON have all either lost or dissipated Inv92 over the next several days at least as far as it being a threat to the CONUS. The Canadian has its usual wacky solution with a 1938 style track. The UK has what looks to be a weak system in the northern Bahamas  at hour 144.

 

I  admit that I am new to this but am I reading theses models correctly?

 

thanks in advance

Yes you are.

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Shear is weakening. But I don't even think there is a broad surface circulation with this disturbance now. Just some weak vorticity in the mid levels. This mess will still have an opportunity to develop in the Bahamas or near the SE coast in the coming days however. Still bears watching for development.


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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:
NHC for 92L
 
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Hope they are wrong

Well they are the experts but then again like anyone else in the weather business they are prone to being wrong every so often. You are also talking about probabilities so nothing is definite.

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While everyone s focusing on what could be historic flooding from Harvey, I'll draw attention to 92L

Both 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS develop the system. As I'm typing this the latest GFS develops 92L from a 1006mb depression to a 987mb storm from Hatteras to Cape Cod. LOL

Now that we have two main models hinting at development, the system bears watching. Plus, t's gonna be pretty close to SE coast riding the Gulf Stream. 

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92L's dropped 2.93" over Ave Maria in the last 72 hours (as of 830am this morning). To me anyway, the satellite presentation is showing signs of organization---even though the atmosphere over sw FL has been 'worked over' pretty well. Ensemble guidance depiction of this disturbance--- for a track into the far southeastern Gulf and then an exit northeastward into the Atlantic Basin --- appears to have been a decent solution. At this point in time---no reason to dismiss a solution that takes a track across the Gulf Stream and north-northeastward along the US East Coast. PS---problem I always dealt with in the medium range forecast process (when at WPC)---was where a "perfect prog timing" of a tropical's intensification could be taken verbatim vs. 'thrown out'. Especially beyond the day 4-5 time frame.  The way 'Harvey' morphed is a good example of that forecast process and I would think that 92L's got a few surprises left too. Nice to see many others (like SteveVa and others in this entire discussion stream) being 'vigilant' and observant with these disturbance. Glad I'm a part of this and can get a good feel of what's going on---based on what others are seeing and writing. I don't actually have to 'work at it' anymore---thanks everyone! 

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Does appear to be getting organized fairly quickly ATM, given the time frame there wont be a lot of warning for the SC/NC coast as it will be here in less than 48 hrs, the upside is there doesnt appear to be much support for it being anything more than a middle of the road TS.....biggest issue is maybe 3-6" rain east of I95 in the Carolinas and some sound surge issues as it doesnt take much to move the water around in Pamlico Sound. 

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92L-related rainfall so far today 1.55" as of 200pm EDT---since start of event (Wed aft 8/23) ---6.05" here @ Panther Run GC. Getting about 1-1.5" a day, so water's draining off at a decent rate. No flooding. Canals and retention ponds heading into Naples this morning filling up though. 

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