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WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Another exceptional couplet this time just north of Danbury moving WNW.

Hard to tell for sure on a quick glance, but it looked like the CC briefly dropped out. That was very likely a tornado.

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5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

worried about Josh yall - last we heard his hotel had significant structural damage when he was tweeting while in the eye.

It's concerning but I wouldn't read too much into the lack of communications.  With winds of this speed all of the cell towers and large power lines in the area are most likely out of service. 

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Something that isn't mentioned a lot, but I've always found interesting: The people who survive this are still in for potentially years of psychological effects. I can't find it anymore, but I read a research paper one time about survivors of Hugo and Andrew's eyewalls developing full-fledged PTSD.

 

(The end of this page mentions a Hurricane Janet survivor still waking up with nightmares 20 years later: http://www.canebeard.com/andrew.html)

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1 minute ago, mfgmfg said:

Current location is southwest of Sinton, headed to Odem

that looks like right outside the strongest part of the SW eye wall

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4 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

Hard to tell for sure on a quick glance, but it looked like the CC briefly dropped out. That was very likely a tornado.

Yeah, I stepped it back now that I am on my computer, at :24 past the hour there was a brief CC deficit with the couplet that lasted for another scan.

Another potential tornado right behind it right now though that circulation isn't quite as tight.

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2 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

Something that isn't mentioned a lot, but I've always found interesting: The people who survive this are still in for potentially years of psychological effects. I can't find it anymore, but I read a research paper one time about survivors of Hugo and Andrew's eyewalls developing full-fledged PTSD.

 

(The end of this page mentions a Hurricane Janet survivor still waking up with nightmares 20 years later: http://www.canebeard.com/andrew.html)

Recent studies show that ptsd can be avoided if intensive Psychological treatment is available in the instant aftermath of the trauma - ptsd takes a while to develop. Important to include mental health support in the broader range of post storm emergency services.

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Might have a significant tornado forming ESE of Liverpool.

Edit: And another one near Iowa Colony to the NW.

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1 minute ago, Tater Tot said:

Something that isn't mentioned a lot, but I've always found interesting: The people who survive this are still in for potentially years of psychological effects. I can't find it anymore, but I read a research paper one time about survivors of Hugo and Andrew's eyewalls developing full-fledged PTSD.

 

(The end of this page mentions a Hurricane Janet survivor still waking up with nightmares 20 years later: http://www.canebeard.com/andrew.html)

I wouldn't call it PTST but I had pretty bad anxiety and irrational fears for months after going through Charley.  The people who got the worst of it in those storms had it much worst than I did.  Nobody I knew got hurt and property damage was only moderate.  Easy to believe going through something like that could be psychologically damaging.  At best you'll experience intense fear, which is pretty messed up in itself.

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Refugio taking the western eyewall now, where Tim Marshall is located at the moment. Looks like they might never get into the eye but instead will get raked by the W/SW eyewall.

More impressively, the Port Aransas buoy recorded several 114/115kt gusts with a west or WSW wind. Incredible storm, and has maintained its features extremely well in the past few hours. 

 

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5 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

If you want to see something crazy, go look at the 00Z ECMWF QPF.

Through 156hrs there's a maximum of 62.30" near the Port Lavaca area... widespread 15-30" amounts. Almost unfathomable. 

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15 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

If you want to see something crazy, go look at the 00Z ECMWF QPF.

Sharing it because this needs to be for posterity (via @Stebo).

ecmwf_tprecip_austin_28.png

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Mind you everyone, this is from 00z tonight and beyond. It doesn't count what already fell before 00z this past evening.

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Victoria Texas is probably going to be lit up tonight. Still a major cane and it's going to sit on top of them for days.

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