Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2017 Harvey is going to be really cool to watch on GOES 16. We're in a whole new era of satellite meteorology and it's like super Bowl Sunday every day now thanks to the GOES program. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm93 Posted August 22, 2017 Even the HWRF has 16-24" of rain from this. Major league flood potential. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm93 Posted August 22, 2017 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.7N 91.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2017 21.7N 91.5W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2017 22.8N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2017 23.6N 92.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2017 24.7N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2017 26.2N 94.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2017 27.8N 95.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2017 29.4N 95.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2017 30.4N 94.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2017 30.9N 93.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2017 31.4N 92.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2017 32.3N 92.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Gulf is wide open and it's nuka-cola warm. Someone's looking at a foot to 20" of rain from this. Man am I jealous. I love big flooding events and this is a top tier setup in my eyes. I love heavy rain events too but that much rain in this area would probably cause biblical river flooding. Had 11.5" here from Irene and we shattered the old record crest by 2.5' which had stood since 1984. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.7N 91.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.08.2017 21.7N 91.5W WEAK 00UTC 24.08.2017 22.8N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.08.2017 23.6N 92.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2017 24.7N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2017 26.2N 94.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2017 27.8N 95.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2017 29.4N 95.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2017 30.4N 94.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2017 30.9N 93.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2017 31.4N 92.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2017 32.3N 92.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY Will it receive the name Harvey or will it be renamed? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I love heavy rain events too but that much rain in this area would probably cause biblical river flooding. Had 11.5" here from Irene and we shattered the old record crest by 2.5' which had stood since 1984. Our worst flood in Montgomery County was during the June 2006 event where 11 - 20" fell in a small jackpot near Derwood, MD. It resulted in the evacuation of over 400 residents at 2am when we thought a large dam was about to fail. If this forecast verifies, expect similar results in Texas. This is big time stuff. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 Not that I ever look towards the GGEM for tropical forecasts but the 12z run is in close agreement with the rest of the guidance on a landfall near Corpus Christi. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Our worst flood in Montgomery County was during the June 2006 event where 11 - 20" fell in a small jackpot near Derwood, MD. It resulted in the evacuation of over 400 residents at 2am when we thought a large dam was about to fail. If this forecast verifies, expect similar results in Texas. This is big time stuff. I still remember the historic flooding in Austin from just a few years ago, and that was just from training thunderstorms. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2017 Based off NHC and NOAA discussions, this would be re-named Harvey because it's the same circulation. Kind of reminds me of Ivan in 2004. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 12z HMON makes landfall in Northern Mexico at 974mb 12z Friday then rides the Rio Grande NW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Will it receive the name Harvey or will it be renamed? Same Name unless it were to cross Latin America and come out on the Pacific side. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 This is pretty wild for an ensemble mean. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 The 12z UKMET landfalls closer to Houston Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2017 The biggest story from this storm will be flooding. Every model at this point brings the system into land and stalls it near the coast allowing for a wide open flow on the eastern side of the low right off the Gulf. You don't need strong systems to have catastrophic flood issues either, see Allison. 100% agreement here. The absurd QPF amounts aligning over large areas of the central and eastern Texas coastal region on the majority of global models is far more concerning to me than the potential wind strength or surge from even a major hurricane landfall. Yes, clearly a major hurricane would be bad for a port or city, but that can be mitigated somewhat by evacuations. A stalled intense coastal surface low with a strong moisture fetch in the environment that is being modeled over such a large region is a worse possible weather outcome here. Obviously both scenarios ocurring is the worst. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2017 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 12z EURO at 72 is SE of Brownsville, TX at 1001 mb (by about 100 miles) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 12z EURO has landfall just north or right over Brownsville in the extreme southern part of TX at 78 hrs at 1002 mb 84 hrs inland in extreme southern TX... prob about 75 miles north of the TX/MX border Looks like a weak TS to me Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted August 22, 2017 Euro now going with the idea that Harvey's broad/weak remnants will require the entire span of gulf water just to reorganize into a solid tropical storm. I've been thinking today that models may begin to back off a bit on the intensity. Something in the 60-90 mph range seems reasonable. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2017 More importantly, the ECMWF shows the surface low making progress inland and away from the immediate coastal region. Still poses an inland flooding threat, but that will help bring down those insane QPF amounts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, Windspeed said: More importantly, the ECMWF shows the surface low making progress inland and away from the immediate coastal region. Still a poses an inland flooding threat, but that will help bring down those insane QPF amounts. Looks like it's backtracking at 144 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2017 Looks like it's backtracking at 144 WTF, I was NOT expecting that. It literally backtracks the vortex back to the SE towards initial landfall point. That is nuts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, Windspeed said: 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like it's backtracking at 144 WTF, I was NOT expecting that. It lierally backtracks the vortex back to the SE towards initial landfall point. That is nuts. I know. Backtracking and deepening lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthArlington101 Posted August 22, 2017 I know. Backtracking and deepening lolBrown ocean effect? Traveling back over already moist/flooded areas. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2017 Well this ECMWF run is bunk. So much for thinking lower QPF. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Z-Cast Posted August 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like it's backtracking at 144 WTF, I was NOT expecting that. It lierally backtracks the vortex back to the SE towards initial landfall point. That is nuts. Keep in mind that both the GFS and Euro (within 100 hours) showed Hermine re-engaging the East Coast after landfall, which never happened, as well as Matthew's loop off of the SE Coast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 The 12z ECWMF pretty much trolls all of Southeast Texas for five days. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2017 Back over the GOM and moving east at 168. Let's see how wild this run gets... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2017 Keep in mind that both the GFS and Euro (within 100 hours) showed Hermine re-engaging the East Coast after landfall, which never happened, as well as Matthew's loop off of the SE Coast. Yes I'm not buying the backtrack as much as just realizing a stall or slow drift up the coast is still very much in play. The thing we're hoping to avoid. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2017 LA at 192. FWIW (not much) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Z-Cast Posted August 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: 4 minutes ago, Z-Cast said: Keep in mind that both the GFS and Euro (within 100 hours) showed Hermine re-engaging the East Coast after landfall, which never happened, as well as Matthew's loop off of the SE Coast. Yes I'm not buying the backtrack as much as just realizing a stall or slow drift up the coast is still ver much in play. The thing we're hoping to avoid. Right, I get that. Hurricane track via model runs can be a maddening practice though, so just reminding those that may glance at this thread that it's not outside the realm of likelihood that even within 100 hours of an event major deviations of their path can occur. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
