• Member Statistics

    16,261
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    JWnAZ
    Newest Member
    JWnAZ
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

Recommended Posts

Harvey is going to be really cool to watch on GOES 16.  We're in a whole new era of satellite meteorology and it's like super Bowl Sunday every day now thanks to the GOES program.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.7N  91.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 23.08.2017  21.7N  91.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 24.08.2017  22.8N  92.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.08.2017  23.6N  92.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.08.2017  24.7N  93.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.08.2017  26.2N  94.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 26.08.2017  27.8N  95.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.08.2017  29.4N  95.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.08.2017  30.4N  94.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.08.2017  30.9N  93.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.08.2017  31.4N  92.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 28.08.2017  32.3N  92.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Gulf is wide open and it's nuka-cola warm.  Someone's looking at a foot to 20" of rain from this.  Man am I jealous.  I love big flooding events and this is a top tier setup in my eyes.

I love heavy rain events too but that much rain in this area would probably cause biblical river flooding. Had 11.5" here from Irene and we shattered the old record crest by 2.5' which had stood since 1984.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.7N  91.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 23.08.2017  21.7N  91.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 24.08.2017  22.8N  92.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.08.2017  23.6N  92.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.08.2017  24.7N  93.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.08.2017  26.2N  94.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 26.08.2017  27.8N  95.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.08.2017  29.4N  95.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.08.2017  30.4N  94.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.08.2017  30.9N  93.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.08.2017  31.4N  92.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 28.08.2017  32.3N  92.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 

Will it receive the name Harvey or will it be renamed?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NJwx85 said:

I love heavy rain events too but that much rain in this area would probably cause biblical river flooding. Had 11.5" here from Irene and we shattered the old record crest by 2.5' which had stood since 1984.

Our worst flood in Montgomery County was during the June 2006 event where 11 - 20" fell in a small jackpot near Derwood, MD.  It resulted in the evacuation of over 400 residents at 2am when we thought a large dam was about to fail.  If this forecast verifies, expect similar results in Texas.  This is big time stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not that I ever look towards the GGEM for tropical forecasts but the 12z run is in close agreement with the rest of the guidance on a landfall near Corpus Christi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Our worst flood in Montgomery County was during the June 2006 event where 11 - 20" fell in a small jackpot near Derwood, MD.  It resulted in the evacuation of over 400 residents at 2am when we thought a large dam was about to fail.  If this forecast verifies, expect similar results in Texas.  This is big time stuff.

I still remember the historic flooding in Austin from just a few years ago, and that was just from training thunderstorms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based off NHC and NOAA discussions, this would be re-named Harvey because it's the same circulation.  Kind of reminds me of Ivan in 2004.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Will it receive the name Harvey or will it be renamed?

Same Name unless it were to cross Latin America and come out on the Pacific side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The biggest story from this storm will be flooding. Every model at this point brings the system into land and stalls it near the coast allowing for a wide open flow on the eastern side of the low right off the Gulf. You don't need strong systems to have catastrophic flood issues either, see Allison.

 

 

100% agreement here. The absurd QPF amounts aligning over large areas of the central and eastern Texas coastal region on the majority of global models is far more concerning to me than the potential wind strength or surge from even a major hurricane landfall. Yes, clearly a major hurricane would be bad for a port or city, but that can be mitigated somewhat by evacuations. A stalled intense coastal surface low with a strong moisture fetch in the environment that is being modeled over such a large region is a worse possible weather outcome here. Obviously both scenarios ocurring is the worst.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday.  Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z EURO has landfall just north or right over Brownsville in the extreme southern part of TX at 78 hrs at 1002 mb

84 hrs inland in extreme southern TX... prob about 75 miles north of the TX/MX border

Looks like a weak TS to me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro now going with the idea that Harvey's broad/weak remnants will require the entire span of gulf water just to reorganize into a solid tropical storm.  I've been thinking today that models may begin to back off a bit on the intensity.  Something in the 60-90 mph range seems reasonable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More importantly, the ECMWF shows the surface low making progress inland and away from the immediate coastal region. Still poses an inland flooding threat, but that will help bring down those insane QPF amounts.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Windspeed said:

More importantly, the ECMWF shows the surface low making progress inland and away from the immediate coastal region. Still a poses an inland flooding threat, but that will help bring down those insane QPF amounts.

Looks like it's backtracking at 144 :yikes: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks like it's backtracking at 144 :yikes: 

 

WTF, I was NOT expecting that. It literally backtracks the vortex back to the SE towards initial landfall point. That is nuts.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Windspeed said:
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Looks like it's backtracking at 144 :yikes: 
 

WTF, I was NOT expecting that. It lierally backtracks the vortex back to the SE towards initial landfall point. That is nuts.

I know. Backtracking and deepening lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Windspeed said:
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Looks like it's backtracking at 144 :yikes: 
 

WTF, I was NOT expecting that. It lierally backtracks the vortex back to the SE towards initial landfall point. That is nuts.

Keep in mind that both the GFS and Euro (within 100 hours) showed Hermine re-engaging the East Coast after landfall, which never happened, as well as Matthew's loop off of the SE Coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Keep in mind that both the GFS and Euro (within 100 hours) showed Hermine re-engaging the East Coast after landfall, which never happened, as well as Matthew's loop off of the SE Coast.

 

Yes I'm not buying the backtrack as much as just realizing a stall or slow drift up the coast is still very much in play. The thing we're hoping to avoid.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Windspeed said:
4 minutes ago, Z-Cast said:
Keep in mind that both the GFS and Euro (within 100 hours) showed Hermine re-engaging the East Coast after landfall, which never happened, as well as Matthew's loop off of the SE Coast.
 

Yes I'm not buying the backtrack as much as just realizing a stall or slow drift up the coast is still ver much in play. The thing we're hoping to avoid.

Right, I get that. Hurricane track via model runs can be a maddening practice though, so just reminding those that may glance at this thread that it's not outside the realm of likelihood that even within 100 hours of an event major deviations of their path can occur.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.