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WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

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3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Come on.  No tropical system in the US has ever produced wide areas of 40" of rain.  40" of rain is the PEAK rainfall that someone might see after mesoscale effects.  And I have seen nearly 20" of rain in Irene, and over a foot in Floyd.  And if you're in the wrong spot, that's a disaster, and if you're in the right spot its NBD.

I have a ton of friends down the the Houston/CC area, as do many folks with met/atmospheric science/applied engineering degrees.  They're all making reasoned decisions based on their elevation, flood maps, and the forecast.  They are a heck of lot better at that than the 20 year olds on the forum who have never met a hurricane that isn't biblical.

Floyd was over 20 inches an flooded all the way to raleigh. 

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12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

This will attain upper CAT 4/lower CAT 5 status by tonight...

Given everything I see...it could be posible. I was wondering last night if it would struggle to reach into a III...but he seems ready to go right now.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100% in agreement. 

Ray, we've been on these boards for a long time.  So I'm confident in saying that you see the same signatures as I do...rapid IR clearing, well established EW with feeder spiral bands into EW (as opposed to concentric "choking" bands)...and ideal UL conditions, warm eddy ahead, and surface, concave frictional coastline convergence...

...you are wise to agree!!!! :):)

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Buoy 42020, which looks to be right in Harvey's path - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

 
Conditions at 42020 as of
(7:50 am CDT)
1250 GMT on 08/25/2017:
Unit of Measure:   English  Metric    Time Zone:  Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] GMT+4 Pakistan Standard [GMT+5] GMT+6 Indochina Time [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]    

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 19.7 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 12 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.6 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 129 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.46 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 33.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 35.0 kts

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13 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Ray, we've been on these boards for a long time.  So I'm confident in saying that you see the same signatures as I do...rapid IR clearing, well established EW with feeder spiral bands into EW (as opposed to concentric "choking" bands)...and ideal UL conditions, warm eddy ahead, and surface, concave frictional coastline convergence...

...you are wise to agree!!!! :):)

George, obviously at this point, we have the luxury of being able to assess these structural nuances to inform thoughts on intensity/impact, but even as early as Tuesday morning the writing was on the wall for a catastrophic US impact and certainly the end of the major hurricane drought.

When guidance ever shifted north, and decided not to bury a TS/minimal cane into Mexico, I noted the pristine upper level environment forecast and the unperturbed bath water over the western GOM and sounded the alarms.

The only thing that can save the coast from extensive/extreme wind damage is if this were to hover off of the coast for a protracted stretch, which would allow for weakening.

But the biblical flooding is a certainty.

This will be life altering-

 

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12 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Come on.  No tropical system in the US has ever produced wide areas of 40" of rain.  40" of rain is the PEAK rainfall that someone might see after mesoscale effects.  And I have seen nearly 20" of rain in Irene, and over a foot in Floyd.  And if you're in the wrong spot, that's a disaster, and if you're in the right spot its NBD.

I have a ton of friends down the the Houston/CC area, as do many folks with met/atmospheric science/applied engineering degrees.  They're all making reasoned decisions based on their elevation, flood maps, and the forecast.  They are a heck of lot better at that than the 20 year olds on the forum who have never met a hurricane that isn't biblical.

I'm nearly 50.  There are times when things are overstated, for sure.  This from a risk assessment, is NOT one of them!!  This is NOT a time to downplay this.  Flooding kills more people than any other aspect of a hurricane.  The conditions for coastal and inland flooding are insane at this point....and that is ignoring the real potential that the current forecast is conservative via strength and long lasting (stalled system) intense rainfall that won't be able to runoff with long lasting onshore flow.

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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I'm nearly 50.  There are times when things are overstated, for sure.  This from a risk assessment, is NOT one of them!!  This is NOT a time to downplay this.  Flooding kills more people than any other aspect of a hurricane.  The conditions for coastal and inland flooding are insane at this point....and that is ignoring the real potential that the current forecast is conservative via strength and long lasting (stalled system) intense rainfall that won't be able to runoff with long lasting onshore flow.

You know a situation is dire when.....

140mph gusts are not your largest concern.

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The fact the numerical models (which many times underforecast rainfall amounts) are giving such widespread amounts is telling. How can you think it's overdone? Wait until this drifts east and you get a pseudo warm front near Houston that focuses tropical rains. That's the feature where if it stays in place like some guidance has....you are fooked. 

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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I'm nearly 50.  There are times when things are overstated, for sure.  This from a risk assessment, is NOT one of them!!  This is NOT a time to downplay this.  Flooding kills more people than any other aspect of a hurricane.  The conditions for coastal and inland flooding are insane at this point....and that is ignoring the real potential that the current forecast is conservative via strength and long lasting (stalled system) intense rainfall that won't be able to runoff with long lasting onshore flow.

Yeah on the list of possible worse case scenarios this is fairly high. About the only thing that could make this worse at this point is if Houston gets into the RFQ.

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My boyfriend has family in League City (just north of Galveston). On a scale of "stay put" to "theh should have evacuated yesterday" how badly are they in trouble?

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Question....  Has there been a case in history where we have had a Cat 3 or higher storm that has come ashore somewhere and basically stalled or looped within 50 miles of coastline for several days?  I can't think of one but there must be some analog of something similar?  Maybe not and if not we are in uncharted history.

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Just now, cheese007 said:

My boyfriend has family in League City (just north of Galveston). On a scale of "stay put" to "theh should have evacuated yesterday" how badly are they in trouble?

GTF out now!!

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact the numerical models (which many times underforecast rainfall amounts) are giving such widespread amounts is telling. How can you think it's overdone? Wait until this drifts east and you get a pseudo warm front near Houston that focuses tropical rains. That's the feature where if it stays in place like some guidance has....you are fooked. 

The HRRR shows this feature quite nicely.

59a0324ca9df4.png

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1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

My boyfriend has family in League City (just north of Galveston). On a scale of "stay put" to "theh should have evacuated yesterday" how badly are they in trouble?

Depends if he has a structural engineering degree apparently.

Serious answer: GTFO yesterday

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1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

My boyfriend has family in League City (just north of Galveston). On a scale of "stay put" to "theh should have evacuated yesterday" how badly are they in trouble?

Go north west young man/woman.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact the numerical models (which many times underforecast rainfall amounts) are giving such widespread amounts is telling. How can you think it's overdone? Wait until this drifts east and you get a pseudo warm front near Houston that focuses tropical rains. That's the feature where if it stays in place like some guidance has....you are fooked. 

Its akin to seeing 2'+ snowfall amounts across an entire stretch of coastline on an ensemble mean, anomaly wise.

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question....  Has there been a case in history where we have had a Cat 3 or higher storm that has come ashore somewhere and basically stalled or looped within 50 miles of coastline for several days?  I can't think of one but there must be some analog of something similar?  Maybe not and if not we are in uncharted history.

Easy 1950.

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2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

My boyfriend has family in League City (just north of Galveston). On a scale of "stay put" to "theh should have evacuated yesterday" how badly are they in trouble?

Should have left yesterday, it's almost too late already.

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5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I'm nearly 50.  There are times when things are overstated, for sure.  This from a risk assessment, is NOT one of them!!  This is NOT a time to downplay this.  Flooding kills more people than any other aspect of a hurricane.  The conditions for coastal and inland flooding are insane at this point....and that is ignoring the real potential that the current forecast is conservative via strength and long lasting (stalled system) intense rainfall that won't be able to runoff with long lasting onshore flow.

Sure.  But flooding risk is not homogenous.  People in flood zones need to evacuate; people outside of flood zone are fine (assuming their houses are built to code). 

 

There's a darn good reason why there aren't mandatory evacuation orders in place for Metro Houston.  You guys are actually downplaying the risk by exaggerating it.  There's a population of people in flood-prone areas (and by flood-prone, I mean even 1 in 100 year or 1 in 500 year flood zones) that need to GTFO right now.  There's a population of people who have some elevation who should be eating everything in their freezer and getting ready for a miserable week.   Conflating the two into a "OMG EVERYONE'S GOING TO DIE DIE DIE" is irresponsible and ultimately causes people to ignore tailored warnings or evacuation orders that they should be respecting.

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Hello my friends,

 

Sorry for the ignorance and stupidity. Now, I am even more confused...is the hurricane not making landfall...and thus we in the greater Houston (NW area - Jersey City) area are clear?


Or is there still a chance for some rain etc. in the NW Houston - Jersey City are?

 

I am so confused...do we need to hunker down or not?


Many thanks chaps,

James

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Sure.  But flooding risk is not homogenous.  People in flood zones need to evacuate; people outside of flood zone are fine (assuming their houses are built to code). 

 

There's a darn good reason why there aren't mandatory evacuation orders in place for Metro Houston.  You guys are actually downplaying the risk by exaggerating it.  There's a population of people in flood-prone areas (and by flood-prone, I mean even 1 in 100 year or 1 in 500 year flood zones) that need to GTFO right now.  There's a population of people who have some elevation who should be eating everything in their freezer and getting ready for a miserable week.   Conflating the two into a "OMG EVERYONE'S GOING TO DIE DIE DIE" is irresponsible and ultimately causes people to ignore tailored warnings or evacuation orders that they should be respecting.

You don't need to live in a low lying or flood prone area to receive flash flooding. Areas that never flooded before had a foot of water during Irene, and that was just a quick foot of rain in about 10 hours. Now imagine five or six times that.

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Just now, Drz1111 said:

Sure.  But flooding risk is not homogenous.  People in flood zones need to evacuate; people outside of flood zone are fine (assuming their houses are built to code). 

 

There's a darn good reason why there aren't mandatory evacuation orders in place for Metro Houston.  You guys are actually downplaying the risk by exaggerating it.  There's a population of people in flood-prone areas (and by flood-prone, I mean even 1 in 100 year or 1 in 500 year flood zones) that need to GTFO right now.  There's a population of people who have some elevation who should be eating everything in their freezer and getting ready for a miserable week.   Conflating the two into a "OMG EVERYONE'S GOING TO DIE DIE DIE" is irresponsible and ultimately causes people to ignore tailored warnings or evacuation orders that they should be respecting.

Houston was built on a swamp. Houston gets flooded when heavy rains hit San Antonio. Storm surge will stop water from flowing to the ocean. Houston will be flooded severely. If the storm follows the Euro Houston almost gets a direct hit ontop of the floods. It's not exaggerating, it's not wishcasting, and it's not bs.

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

GTF out now!!

Her post makes me sad.  I can't imagine how many families are trying to convince their loved ones to get out of the way of this monster and how many of those loved ones are ignoring the warnings.   Such a sick feeling..

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1 minute ago, jamesbond said:

Hello my friends,

 

Sorry for the ignorance and stupidity. Now, I am even more confused...is the hurricane not making landfall...and thus we in the greater Houston (NW area - Jersey City) area are clear?


Or is there still a chance for some rain etc. in the NW Houston - Jersey City are?

 

I am so confused...do we need to hunker down or not?


Many thanks chaps,

James

The main threat to the greater Houston area is the excessive rainfall and life threatening flash flooding, but other than that, you should be fine :D

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