Harvey - Main Thread

[ldub23]

It appears the GFS breaks it into 2 lows, one near bermuda and another near the ne  carib.

[ldub23]

Looks rather dried  up tonight. Models notwithstanding  i dont think it will ever be an area  of interest.

[NJwx85]

33 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Looks rather dried  up tonight. Models notwithstanding  i dont think it will ever be an area  of interest.

It's already an area of interest as a designated invest. In any event NHC still going with a 60% chance of development over the next five days.

[ldub23]

Interest to me means a real threat. NHC going with my thinking and lowers chances. personally, i would peg the chance at  0

 

8 AM TWO down to 20%-40%

An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15
to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the
Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days
but should become less favorable once the system moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

same story as the last 5 or 6 dead seasons.

[ldub23]

We need to start to wonder if there will ever be a season where a real storm forms  in the MDR.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is back to developing 91L into Franklin, if correct the center would pass near St Lucia on Friday as a weak TS before entering the Eastern Caribbean. Most of the shear and dry air are further to the North, so that would be a great opportunity, especially considering how most of the warm waters of the Central and Eastern Caribbean have been untouched.

 

[rockchalk83]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Except 91L wouldn't be Franklin, it would be Harvey. 

[NJwx85]

17 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Except 91L wouldn't be Franklin, it would be Harvey. 

Correct, typo.

[Hoth]

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

We need to start to wonder if there will ever be a season where a real storm forms  in the MDR.

Did you stray in here from Accuwx? 

[wxmx]

@ldub23, ok we get it, the MDR has had suboptimal conditions for several seasons now. Let's move past that, it sounds like a broken record now.

[ldub23]

Sure we can move  on and  my opinion remains this should be pegged at  0%

[Tibet]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Sure we can move  on and  my opinion remains this should be pegged at  0%

This guy lol

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Sure we can move  on and  my opinion remains this should be pegged at  0%

Can someone take care of this guy? For god sakes, every single post of yours is the same thing.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Can someone take care of this guy? For god sakes, every single post of yours is the same thing.

Weenie tag for the love of God.

[wxmx]

Vis imagery shows that there's a good chance that 92L has a closed low. There's some NE shear, but nothing major. Convection is not that great, but it's increasing, especially around and west of the LLC. Next TWO will probably pump probabilities a good deal.

[Time sensitive]

[ldub23]

34 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Vis imagery shows that there's a good chance that 92L has a closed low. There's some NE shear, but nothing major. Convection is not that great, but it's increasing, especially around and west of the LLC. Next TWO will probably pump probabilities a good deal.

[Time sensitive]

Looks  ok now but neither the EURO or GFS do much with it. GFS pretty much shows weak develop with all the waves and the Euro shows very weak lows except for 93L TO BE. And goes well east. 91 might do a don or brett.

[NJwx85]

91L is now up to 40% chance of development in the next 48hrs and a Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if necessary. 

But we were all told this had 0 chance of development 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

91L is now up to 40% chance of development in the next 48hrs and a Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if necessary. 

But we were all told this had 0 chance of development 

Just underscores how far we have yet to go to understand all the nuances of genesis and intensification. I pay almost no attention to any modeled intensity projection, just that there's a signal. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon.  Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[hawkeye_wx]

This system appears to have a well-defined circulation.  It might be called a TD already if it was close to the US.

Edit:  Meaning, for waves out in the MDR, the NHC likes to wait until it is a solid TD before upgrading.  There's no need to rush any labeling way out there.  I'm sure the NHC would like to see the easterly shear drop a bit and the convection to congeal around the center.

[eurojosh]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This system appears to have a well-defined circulation.  It might be called a TD already if it was close to the US.

 

[ldub23]

14 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

91L is now up to 40% chance of development in the next 48hrs and a Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if necessary. 

But we were all told this had 0 chance of development 

Euro and GFS pretty  much drop all development from any wave except for  weak lows at best. If getting a weenie tag for being right  is  my punishment, ill gladly take it. Could we possibly see another  1 day wonder? possible, but for peak season thats  not development  in my book.

[NJwx85]

15 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro and GFS pretty  much drop all development from any wave except for  weak lows at best. If getting a weenie tag for being right  is  my punishment, ill gladly take it. Could we possibly see another  1 day wonder? possible, but for peak season thats  not development  in my book.

It's likely going to be designated today. You deserve to be five posted.

[WxWatcher007]

80/90 now. Still some NE shear but I expect this to be designated today. Hope the HH can get out there. Wish they could get to 92L too  

[ldub23]

31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's likely going to be designated today. You deserve to be five posted.

Quite possible, but it has a very  rocky future and again neither model is at all impressed.

[ldub23]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2017081706/slp24.png

 

Thats the gfs in 3 days and the euro looks the same.

 

 

[NJwx85]

26 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Quite possible, but it has a very  rocky future and again neither model is at all impressed.

Models are not the be all end all. Future Harvey (91L) will be moving into a less dry environment over the Caribbean sea. The morning update has increased the odds of development to 80% over the next 48hrs and 90% over the next five days. It's likely going to be designated later today. Although the system could encounter increased shear once past 70W, it should remain in a low shear environment for the next few days over warm untapped waters and will likely pose an eventual threat to the Yucatan and Central America.

1. Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated
with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy
data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Per NHC tweet, recon to investigate 91L this afternoon. Glad they're not canceling.

[NJwx85]

It's too bad that shear should weaken this system in in the 96-120hr time frame. Most of the guidance is in good agreement on a peak near category one intensity in about 84hrs with substantial weakening after that. Eventually the system could end up in the Bay of Campeche. 

[NJwx85]

The 06z GFS actually develops a nice anti-cyclone over the Western Caribbean by day 4 with the ULL moving North and weakening, so maybe conditions there will end up more favorable than currently expected. Either way, land interaction is going to be a problem beyond day 5.