• Member Statistics

    15,530
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    UniversesBelowNormal
    Newest Member
    UniversesBelowNormal
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

Recommended Posts

Just now, Random Chaos said:

Right. I thought they hit fully open late last night or overnight at about 4000cfm. So is this "increase" controlled still? Or is it an uncontrolled increase (as in, overflowing, and they just are trying to make it seem like it's planned)?

I may be losing track of days but I don't think they went full open overnight.  I think they started at ~ 2000 cfs and had been waiting to see the effects. Once they saw that the rain was continuing and the reservoirs were still rising, they have been incrementally raising the flow all day.  Remember they don't want to overwhelm the neighborhoods that were getting impacted by their releases (which were different from those getting the backups from the nearby waterways due to the full reservoirs no longer absorbing the water, despite them overtopping).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I may be losing track of days but I don't think they went full open overnight.  I think they started at ~ 2000 cfs and had been waiting to see the effects. Once they saw that the rain was continuing and the reservoirs were still rising, they have been incrementally raising the flow all day.  Remember they don't want to overwhelm the neighborhoods that were getting impacted by their releases (which were different from those getting the backups from the nearby waterways due to the full reservoirs no longer absorbing the water, despite them overtopping).

They also need to plan for additional rain. I'm sure they are looking at future models and have determined they need to release as much as possible. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NPR just ran a story that makes two very good points. Houston has the third largest undocumented population in the country, with over 500,000 undocumented persons.

(1) Many of them are afraid to call 911 because they believe they will be deported under new aggressive ICE and state policies; and

(2) A very large percentage of these people work construction. If any city in the country is going to need its undocumented residents over the next few years, it's Houston.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

They also need to plan for additional rain. I'm sure they are looking at future models and have determined they need to release as much as possible. 

I think they are at that point now where they will definitely go to max open.  They were estimating that the reservoirs would not drop until sometime around the 3rd week of September. Based on the location of Addicks & Barker (on the western side of the city), the hope is the rain will be diminishing on that side as the system moves away and its heavier bands sit to the east.  Of course at that point, the lakes in the east are being flooded (as well as western Louisiana and now the panhandle for Florida).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It would most likely not happen in that manner.  It would most likely initially be via small breaches in weak points along the earthen parts.  But that would still be considered "uncontrolled releases".

Are there actually weak points?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And lol at this notion that Turner is some kind of rockstar.

A guy named 'Mattress Mac' has shown more organizational and leadership skills than not only Turner but the governor of our state.

When we talk about small government here in Texas we sure are showing em, cause for about the first 36 hrs it was mainly up to the general pop to coordinate and run rescue operations, including getting shelters up and running.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Are there actually weak points?

I was looking at some Army Corp of Engineers info where they have been doing mitigation on both reservoirs.  They had anticipated to complete the work by 2020.  I had posted a website link somewhere in this long thread that had compiled the Army Corps of Engineers PowerPoint presentation.  It had a cool history of why things were built the way they built them (watershed/bayous, etc).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Chucktown81 said:

The photo is legit.  It's from a Beaumont firefighter who was on his flats boat.

 No Beaumont traffic cameras look anywhere close to anything like that. Looks like it was taken out on the open water and photoshopped.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jacindc said:

 No Beaumont traffic cameras look anywhere close to anything like that. Looks like it was taken out on the open water and photoshopped.

 

O

I never said it was in Beaumont.  Its 20 miles from Beaumont on I-10.  I have family in Beaumont and yes, the city proper doesn't look like that but I-10 is completely overrun with water

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jacindc said:

 No Beaumont traffic cameras look anywhere close to anything like that. Looks like it was taken out on the open water and photoshopped.

 

I-10 west of Beaumont has been flooded over since yesterday afternoon and with the way the winds and rain picked up today I wouldn't be surprised if it was legit at all. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Right. I thought they hit fully open late last night or overnight at about 4000cfm. So is this "increase" controlled still? Or is it an uncontrolled increase (as in, overflowing, and they just are trying to make it seem like it's planned)?

There is uncontrolled over topping of the spillways at both Addicks and Barker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

 


I witnessed Homestead & Florida City in late December after Andrew. Your post is spot on. It was the most stunning wind damage from a hurricane I've ever seen. Neighborhoods leveled,trees completely debarked if standing, even some minor pavement scouring. The whole infrastructure was basically wiped clean. As I drove thru in complete silence I thought.....this must be what major tornado damage looks like.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Same here. Homestead was flattened. Completely destroyed and wiped clean. Will never forget that

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SeanBarg said:

I-10 west of Beaumont has been flooded over since yesterday afternoon and with the way the winds and rain picked up today I wouldn't be surprised if it was legit at all. 

Right.  If anyone has ever driven from Houston to Beaumont then you would know that you drive over many low lying swampy areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jacindc said:

 No Beaumont traffic cameras look anywhere close to anything like that. Looks like it was taken out on the open water and photoshopped.

 

 

go to sleep, seriously.   I've been watching their live coverage for hours.  total disaster setting up for Beaumont. 

another one - (original tweeter https://twitter.com/FrankieM09 )

DIbnD5IUEAAbQd1.jpg

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I may be losing track of days but I don't think they went full open overnight.  I think they started at ~ 2000 cfs and had been waiting to see the effects. Once they saw that the rain was continuing and the reservoirs were still rising, they have been incrementally raising the flow all day.  Remember they don't want to overwhelm the neighborhoods that were getting impacted by their releases (which were different from those getting the backups from the nearby waterways due to the full reservoirs no longer absorbing the water, despite them overtopping).

Earthern dams scare the **** out of me - ever since one in my neighborhood gave way several decades ago.
This doc give you pause http://scholarsmine.mst.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3092&context=icchge

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Chucktown81 said:

The photo is legit.  It's from a Beaumont firefighter who was on his flats boat.

Where did you get the link?

Sorry, I'm skeptical after the fake "underwater planes" picture. No disrespect intended, but people take advantage of these situations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still some potential scary times ahead for the Gulf coast.  Possibly something weak coming north from the BOC.  Then the NHC gives 93L a 90% chance of developing.  Could stay at a low latitude to miss next weeks trough.  If that happened a track towards Florida/Upper Gulf is possible.  10 days away.  I am guessing they want to lower all the Reservoirs in the Harvery areas as much as possible and as quick as possible just in case another tropical system hits.  A 2nd major for Texas in 2 weeks would be beyond catastrophic.  Attached the 18Z possible future track of 93L  (Irma) or the next several days.  Stays south....

Untitled.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think they are at that point now where they will definitely go to max open.  They were estimating that the reservoirs would not drop until sometime around the 3rd week of September. Based on the location of Addicks & Barker (on the western side of the city), the hope is the rain will be diminishing on that side as the system moves away and its heavier bands sit to the east.  Of course at that point, the lakes in the east are being flooded (as well as western Louisiana and now the panhandle for Florida).

From the press conference this morning they seemed to be wide open at that time.   The engineer mentioned that variations of rate at the gate was because of the level of Buffalo Bayou - it was backed up high at the gate and slowed the outflow down.   He mentioned if that went down then they would get more flow at the gate.  He did mention they expected that to happen.   An interesting detail either way.

However, I've heard multiple times that the gate would only flow ~4k each.   So if its 16k now perhaps the overflow has been calculated into the total.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

 

go to sleep, seriously.   I've been watching their live coverage for hours.  total disaster setting up for Beaumont. 

another one - (original tweeter https://twitter.com/FrankieM09 )

DIbnD5IUEAAbQd1.jpg

 

But the other photo shows what look like legit ocean waves.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, thess said:

But the other photo shows what look like legit ocean waves.

Because the wind is blowing there due to the location of the tropical cyclone?

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JoMo said:

Because the wind is blowing there due to the location of the tropical cyclone?

Fair, I just haven't seen any other flood photos that look like that. 

The twitter poster is saying that he got it from "his nephew's friend who was checking on cattle", but the person who linked it here says it's from a firefighter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Polka1 said:

From the press conference this morning they seemed to be wide open at that time.   The engineer mentioned that variations of rate at the gate was because of the level of Buffalo Bayou - it was backed up high at the gate and slowed the outflow down.   He mentioned if that went down then they would get more flow at the gate.  He did mention they expected that to happen.   An interesting detail either way.

However, I've heard multiple times that the gate would only flow ~4k each.   So if its 16k now perhaps the overflow has been calculated into the total.  

I watched this morning and this afternoon and they were continually "combining" the two flow rates, which could be confusing.  Full open for both would have been ~8000 cfs.  However their problems were also with the faulty/malfunctioning gauges, so IMHO they really didn't (and still don't) have a good handle on the flows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, thess said:

Where did you get the link?

Sorry, I'm skeptical after the fake "underwater planes" picture. No disrespect intended, but people take advantage of these situations.

My father works for the local newspaper in Beaumont and a local firefighter who took the picture sent it to him and the reporters that work there.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chucktown81 said:

My father works for the local newspaper in Beaumont and a local firefighter who took the picture sent it to him and the reporters that work there.  

Is the firefighter the same guy who was checking on his cattle? Or is the twitter guy misinformed about who took the photo? 

(I come from a newspaper background myself, hence the natural suspicion about sources.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.