Harvey - Main Thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

+RA incoming for Houston. 

 

[thewxmann]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Anyone underplaying this is just trolling some personal agenda.  This is still in worst case scenario mode for many. 

 

It's neither the worst case scenario nor is it just some "light rain" given the situation. Let's be realistic on both sides.

[tacoman25]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Anyone underplaying this is just trolling some personal agenda.  This is still in worst case scenario mode for many. 

 

It's a massive, ongoing disaster. None of us know how it will turn out in the end. But people overhype stuff in this thread ALL THE TIME. It goes both ways. Objectively reporting the radar trends and acknowledging what would be worse or better for Houston metro is not trolling.

[CaWx]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Anyone underplaying this is just trolling some personal agenda.  This is still in worst case scenario mode for many. 

 

The worst case scenario for downtown Houston revolves around what happens at Addicks and the other reservior dam. With most of the heavy rain focusing around city proper and points E/SE, it is a huge sigh of relief. The dam may go over the spillway, but as long as the worst stays over Houston and further east, that is great news. Sure it will be still terrible for other locations, but not as bad as it would be with a massive spillway discharge and possible dam failure. 

[AppsRunner]

Pretty clear NW shift in heavy precip over the past hour or so tonight. For now the heaviest rains are focused over Dickinson and the NWS office, but if those continue to slide northwestward, the metro area is going to have an awful night. 

[DotRat_Wx]

I'm still not completely convinced Houston sees the heavy stuff from that band. Center seems to be drifting slightly north, could potentially get into it.

[tacoman25]

1 minute ago, CaWx said:

The worst case scenario for downtown Houston revolves around what happens at Addicks and the other reservior dam. With most of the heavy rain focusing around city proper and points E/SE, it is a huge sigh of relief. The dam may go over the spillway, but as long as the worst stays over Houston and further east, that is great news. Sure it will be still terrible for other locations, but not as bad as it would be with a massive spillway discharge and possible dam failure. 

Exactly. The flooding can definitely get worse, but worst case scenario would almost certainly be heavy rain over the N/NW/W sections of the metro area. The fact that (so far) the heaviest stuff has stayed further south and east is fortunate. Of course that may change.

[NortheastPAWx]

KIAH just eclipsed 30.00" as of 10pm CT. Probably headed for 35" by morning with what's pointed at the metro.

[CaWx]

3 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

Exactly. The flooding can definitely get worse, but worst case scenario would almost certainly be heavy rain over the N/NW/W sections of the metro area. The fact that (so far) the heaviest stuff has stayed further south and east is fortunate. Of course that may change.

Like if what we are seeing with the banding along the coast or SE of the city was happening to the W/NW of the city where the reservior watershed is, we would be talking major problems for downtown Houston, but I'm not seeing that happening tonight, time will tell. 

[DotRat_Wx]

106.44' Addicks at 11:03 Houston Time

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I'm still not completely convinced Houston sees the heavy stuff from that band. Center seems to be drifting slightly north, could potentially get into it.

The next 3-5 hours or so will be important. Decent model agreement on it shifting nw by then.  

[DotRat_Wx]

The storm center has begun to travel with a northerly component. Mostly heading NE most recently. This is why we are seeing the banding expand, try and push NW. 

If storm travels further north, Houston gets it. East, they don't.

[DotRat_Wx]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

The next 3-5 hours or so will be important. Decent model agreement on it shifting nw by then.  

What models are you considering? I've found HRRR/RAP to be useless. RGEM/NAM have been closest. 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

What models are you considering? I've found HRRR/RAP to be useless. RGEM/NAM have been closest. 

3k NAM has it coming NW. It's does a loop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017082900&fh=-5&xpos=0&ypos=149

[DotRat_Wx]

Looking at 12 Euro, pretty close right now. Might have a good handle. Would get Houston into really heavy stuff.

0z GFS is very similar. Along with 0z RGEM.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

What models are you considering? I've found HRRR/RAP to be useless. RGEM/NAM have been closest. 

Looking at everything.  The 00z GFS/12 km NAM/RGEM seem most bullish on the band shifting nw.  Lesser extent on others.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The NWS SMV radar loop looks, to my untrained eye, like hours of moderate to heavy rain for parts of Houston Metro. Big pivot of moisture. 

[CaWx]

2 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

3k NAM has it coming NW. It's does a loop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017082900&fh=-5&xpos=0&ypos=149

NAM is bad for the reserviors, but I'm not sold on a NW trajectory. May move N/NNE

[esullivan]

1 minute ago, CaWx said:

NAM is bad for the reserviors, but I'm not sold on a NW trajectory. May move N/NNE

Looks already to be heading WNW per RadarScope 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Looking at 12 Euro, pretty close right now. Might have a good handle. Would get Houston into really heavy stuff.

0z GFS is very similar. Along with 0z RGEM.

Yeah, models and radar trends look like a fresh hell for Houston metro, not to mention areas North and East. 

[DotRat_Wx]

106.49' at 11:19PM Houston, Addicks

[ice1972]

44 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

this was posted on reddit

 

 

I don't get that map.....why would a reservoir spill at 108  and the Main Dam elevation be set 11 feet higher.....makes no sense....I call bull

[DotRat_Wx]

Just now, ice1972 said:

I don't get that map.....why would a reservoir spill at 108  it the Main Dam elevation be set at 11 feet higher.....makes no sense....I call bull

It's correct, I checked it out

[UMB WX]

29 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

It's a massive, ongoing disaster. None of us know how it will turn out in the end. But people overhype stuff in this thread ALL THE TIME. It goes both ways. Objectively reporting the radar trends and acknowledging what would be worse or better for Houston metro is not trolling.

please go to bed.

[CaWx]

1 minute ago, esullivan said:

Looks already to be heading WNW per RadarScope 

It still might, I mean it wouldn't surprise me. Just the heavier returns 2-3" which would really cause problems are staying to the SE of the city. Unless the 1-3" rains start reaching the reservior watersheds, I will start worrying again. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yeah, not really looking good for Houston Metro area.  My heart goes out to people there who are uncertain and scared. 

 

 

[DotRat_Wx]

Radar (higher tilts) confirming Hoosier's sentiment. This is coming to Houston. I had my doubts once it kept drifting SE. NHC track was also shifted East.

[andyhb]

45-50+ kt inbounds aloft associated with that feeder band east of the Bolivar Peninsula working with 2.3-2.6" columnar PWATs. That is some hefty moisture advection.

[CaWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, not really looking good for Houston Metro area.  My heart goes out to people there who are uncertain and scared. 

 

 

If you go to the hr/rates, you can see the worst of it is still SE, if those push into the western and NW parts of the city, I will be surprised. 

[ice1972]

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

It's correct, I checked it out

Then that's awful engineering....."hey let's build a dam to this elevation but let it spill 10 feet lower"......wtf