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WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

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51 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

If the water goes above the concrete a warning will go out, because they haven't finished the scheduled repairs to the voids formed around the outlets. 

Did they say they are 7 feet before reaching the top? 

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8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Explosive development around the COC now...the gulf is lighting up now that the COC is back over the baththub. 

The COC is well southeast of the convection over the texas coast.

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Just now, CaWx said:

Did they say they are 7 feet before reaching the top? 

Adddicks reservoir gauge was at 104.42 earlier top of the spillway is 108 

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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

The COC is well southeast of the convection over the texas coast.

Yea, Harvey is beyond repair as far as explosive strengthening. It could potentially regenerate to a strong TS or weak Hurricane(unlikely). However, this will likely allow it to tap into the GOM again and amp up the bands inland.

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Could it possibly get any worse?

Yes, you better hope Addicks reservior will hold. Tonight is going to be the critical threshold. IF the reservior goes, downtown is going to be much worse. 

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10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

It's pretty obvious they're going to get creamed tonight. The is setting similar to Saturday night.

Wellll.... the moist layer isn't nearly as deep, and the lift is driven from a quasi-warmfront than from a quasi-coldfront / dryline.  Can't imagine this will come close to the 2"/hr rates they were seeing during Sat night.  But there's a boundary, and there's lots of lift, and PW water and elevated CAPE is still high by any standard.  Should be a good deluge, if not Saturday-level.

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If the center makes it far enough South, it may miss the weakness in the ridge. The guidance already needed to be adjusted further SE the last day. It's expected that the trough moving through SE Canada will pick this up, I'm not 100% convinced. 

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Question for Mets.  I know that we have a diurnal maximums and minimums for tropical systems over water.   When feeder bands setup east to west (such as the one about to hit Houston)  do they also tend to get stronger after sunset when over land?  I would guess perhaps not since land cools down and oceans don't so the lift is not the same but I don't know?  Thoughts?

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Right now current levels are 104.71' and the top of spillway is 108' . I have seen an average rise of .08 ever 15 minutes after refreshing the pages. That is .32 every hour. If current radar holds up for even 12 hours throughout the night, that tops the reservior sometime in the early morning, hope that isn't the case. 

addicks reservior.gif

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26 minutes ago, CaWx said:

What is the highest outflow rate the addicks reservior can put out? I see levels are continuing to rise despite the release, anybody have any further information on the reservior? 

Both Addicks and Barker dams current release rates are double what the Army Corp of Engineers say they are designed for so I would suspect no additional release rates can be achieved.

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Just now, WeatherNovice said:

Both Addicks and Barker dams current release rates are double what the Army Corp of Engineers say they are designed for so I would suspect no additional release rates can be achieved.

That is terrible news, and the levels are still rising. This right here is the biggest potential threat to Houston tonight, especially downtown. 

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Their was definitely a camp among the 12z GEFS that take the center more towards NO rather than inland.

What?

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_13.thumb.png.9d7aaeb2119e9c8aef301c94b91f28de.png

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Just now, CaWx said:

That is terrible news, and the levels are still rising. This right here is the biggest potential threat to Houston tonight, especially downtown. 

Actually, downtown is flooding even as we speak from the controlled releases.  If these dams fail we don't even want to think of what that will mean.

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3 minutes ago, CaWx said:

Right now current levels are 104.71' and the top of spillway is 108' . I have seen an average rise of .08 ever 15 minutes after refreshing the pages. That is .32 every hour. If current radar holds up for even 12 hours throughout the night, that tops the reservior sometime in the early morning, hope that isn't the case. 

addicks reservior.gif

It seems like they are going to be using the spillways.    From what I have read the gates are wide open at 4000 qfs and inflows are nearly 10x that.    

Interestingly not many are talking about the spillways.   On most dam structures the spillways are near the dam gates somewhat because they are intended to be used if only in extreme scenarios.   However with these the spillways are at the far corners, away from the outlet.   Meaning where the dam banks are smallest, which makes sense because it shouldn't risk a tall portion.    

Big downfall is that it's clearly going to dump water in neighborhoods and in most cases away from normal watersheds.  

Look at the north east corner of Addicks on GoogleMaps and street view and you will see what I mean.   You can also see that they capped the dam there with concrete and that elevation is perhaps 10ft lower than uncapped portion of the dam further down.   The other ends of the dam at Addicks and Barker are designed the same way.   Overflow is all going to dump at spots that aren't normal watersheds which is going to be a problem to say the least.    

Good news I suppose is that it shouldn't be risky to the taller portions of the dam, so perhaps risk to the structure from overflow should be minimal.

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5 minutes ago, WeatherNovice said:

Actually, downtown is flooding even as we speak from the controlled releases.  If these dams fail we don't even want to think of what that will mean.

Oh I know it is flooding due to the controlled release, but if the reserviors start toping the spillway like they may possibly do it will be even worse than now. 

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6 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Addicks crosses 105. 

7dtwuSd.png

Based on my calculations, if current rates persist through the night, the spillway will be topped in the morning. Since they cannot release anymore water, already double the amount the reservior was designed for. 

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Good press conf live on KHOU....he said basically what I have been saying, "Now is not the time to second guess planning and actions....nothing in the world could have prepared anyone for this and there is NO WAY that enough resources could have been sent here to help in advance. Now is not the time for finger pointing and stating what YOU would have done differently. Now is the time to try and save lives and rescue other. Please, we need all the help we can get".

That is a dire plea from emergency officials and exactly on-point.

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1 hour ago, sbos_wx said:

You'll probably see this convection become displaced and warm up top for a time period this evening. Then new convection fires overnight according to every model. It just depends on where, when. Basically what could occur is precip shield weakening and sliding SE toward the coast for a short time. Heavy rain should move back in later during nighttime period as storm reorganizes itself. If Houston is lucky, dry air really messes things up. That's not likely. It's a closed circulation over the gulf. We're not focused on storm strength, but moisture, and there is more than plenty.

To me, best convergence will be S and E of HOU.. 

You can see the storm beginning to re-organize now. Banding is changing its' shape and orientation. Older precip shield doesn't pack same punch.

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Radar looks really bad for the Houston Metro, everything is filling in. Guess areas were swamps for a reason, events like this 1000s of years ago probably changed the landscape and created lakes, etc, similar to the way big storms create inlets in barrier islands. 

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Based on my calculations, if current rates persist through the night, the spillway will be topped in the morning. Since they cannot release anymore water, already double the amount the reservior was designed for. 


Not sure it can be prevented.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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