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WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

So Harvey is already intensifying --down to 997 mb as of latest advisory. NHC's latest track takes him well offshore through Tuesday night which should allow for additional strengthening.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

This is like giving a raging fire that has been snuffed out a major gulp of air.

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Lets remember that this storm already came back from the dead once, and in short order. I wouldn't totally rule out a quick come back to a robust TS.

Of course one thing working against this idea would be the down sloping dry air coming out of West TX

 

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

So Harvey is already intensifying --down to 997 mb as of latest advisory. NHC's latest track takes him well offshore through Tuesday night which should allow for additional strengthening.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

That is major issue for the area!!! Like adding more fuel to fire! I do not have much meteorological knowledge but what is causing this... I have never in the 18 years following the weather have seen anything like this. 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Lets remember that this storm already came back from the dead once, and in short order. I wouldn't totally rule out a quick come back to a robust TS.

Of course one thing working against this idea would be the down sloping dry air coming out of West TX

wv_lalo-animated.gif

What's with that major blowup of clouds N of Houston??

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1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

That is major issue for the area!!! Like adding more fuel to fire! I do not have much meteorological knowledge but what is causing this... I have never in the 18 years following the weather have seen anything like this. 

Very warm water over the Gulf of Mexico and still a low shear environment. Also the circulation was very robust, and still is. 

last48hrs.gif

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Just now, allgame830 said:

What's with that major blowup of clouds N of Houston??

That's an old WV loop, I tried to post current but cannot so I deleted it.

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Most of the 06z statistical hurricane guidance keeps Harvey over the Gulf for 36-48hrs, some a few longer than that.

The 11z HRRR absolutely hammers Houston tonight and points East to the LA border.

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11 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That is major issue for the area!!! Like adding more fuel to fire! I do not have much meteorological knowledge but what is causing this... I have never in the 18 years following the weather have seen anything like this. 

Trough misses Harvey to the north while ridge builds in to his west, forcing him ESE. There is also a ridge to his east which is preventing him from tracking faster and further from the coast...

Essentially he is stuck between two conflicting steering currents while the one thing that could have booted him out--the UL trough to the north--missed him.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Most of the 06z statistical hurricane guidance keeps Harvey over the Gulf for 36-48hrs, some a few longer than that.

The 11z HRRR absolutely hammers Houston tonight and points East to the LA border.

What are they showing for intensity?

Given Houston's location relative to Harvey's track and guidance maintaining at least weak TS status, I don't see how they do not experience more severe flooding rains from this. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

What are they showing for intensity?

Given Houston's location relative to Harvey's track and guidance maintaining at least weak TS status, I don't see how they do not experience more severe flooding rains from this. 

 

aal09_2017082806_intensity_early.png

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With Harvey just spinning less than 100 miles away you have to think 1-2" over a 15 hour period is about as good as Houston could realistically hope for.

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3 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

With Harvey just spinning less than 100 miles away you have to think 1-2" over a 15 hour period is about as good as Houston could realistically hope for.

looks like the rain will be coming from the ESE now rather than the the previous stuff coming from the SW, not sure if this is any better, looks like just steady mod/heavy rains now with little breaks which could hamper rescue efforts

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The worst impact would obviously be the rain. Harvey has a ton of drier air in the mid and upper levels which will limit any strengthening I think. It looks very much like a baroclinic system at the moment. 

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So did the big rains focus east of Houston last night? Looks like my relatives in Jersey Village didn't even get .50 since midnight.

Very good news for Houston if so.  That said, all that water up north still has to come down, but it appears the main continuous bands of heavy rain may be focusing east now thankfully. But, that's for now, will have to see how the track evolves.

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11 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

looks like the rain will be coming from the ESE now rather than the the previous stuff coming from the SW, not sure if this is any better, looks like just steady mod/heavy rains now with little breaks which could hamper rescue efforts

Maybe fewer very heavy bands directed from off the Gulf, but any rain really just adds to the catastrophic conditions. It's unimaginable that there could be another up to 12" when there is a widespread 2-2.5 feet of rain already in the city. And unlike Allison, it's well distributed throughout the metro area. 

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Unless they have some sort of uber heavy band, I think this starts to transition to river flooding (or at least attn starts to turn towards that). All that water needs to make its way to the rivers nearby. That will be a big problem.

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3 minutes ago, Roy said:

So did the big rains focus east of Houston last night? Looks like my relatives in Jersey Village didn't even get .50 since midnight.

Very good news for Houston if so.  That said, all that water up north still has to come down, but it appears the main continuous bands of heavy rain may be focusing east now thankfully.

Hrrr looking much better for Houston in its most recent run, mostly because Harvey takes an eastern or NE track that pulls the precip far east. Lets see what Nam does.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The worst impact would obviously be the rain. Harvey has a ton of drier air in the mid and upper levels which will limit any strengthening I think. It looks very much like a baroclinic system at the moment. 

Yeah, this just looks like a firehose now.  With the COC so close to the coast it will be difficult for large increase in intensity.

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45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Very warm water over the Gulf of Mexico and still a low shear environment. Also the circulation was very robust, and still is. 

last48hrs.gif

Fear the fighters. Can't explain it in any scientific terms but I have been following these things long enough to see that some TC circulations just have a tendency to remain stronger and have more vitality than others --all else being equal. Harvey has already proven to be one of these "fighters", imo; first over the Yucatán, and then subsequently over Texas.

 

 

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