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WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

The 500mb mid level vortex of Harvey is still quite strong and will be located in relatively the same position as last night. The amount of CAPE in combination to the intense surface convergence in Harvey's right entry to rapid ascent into intense upper level divergence is why the HRRR looks like a replay of intense training bands this evening.

You can see the intense surface flow from eastern Mexico to the central Gulf still swiftly converging into essentially the same locations as this time yesterday. Another explosion of convection is will evolve this evening in likely the same . The way the line of convection above that surface convergence played out last night looked in appearance like a powerful baroclinic frontal boundary. I wonder if dry airmass off of the highlands of eastern Mexico is acting similarly to a dryline enhancing the dynamics into that boundary. Just crazy dynamics at play here.

3km NAM is the same too, with the amount of instability in place it is not surprise things light up this evening.

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3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I seriously don't get some people.

On CBS, they were showing this guy doing everything to save his Ram Pickup Truck as it floated down the river road, dragging him along with it. The water was so deep that all of could see was his head and everyone around was screaming at him to just not do it, but it refused to let the truck go. 

 

 

People act on instinct there, I'm sure if he didn't save his truck and survived, he'll cringe when he sees the video.

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17 minutes ago, Cary said:

His opinion/what the public official said is more logical, although it's not the "ideal" opinion. What you are absolutely correct about is they should have left long ago.

You got where I was kinda going there. I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with the statement as much as the lack of detail in at what point should they become concerned. At what point does it become an emergency. I saw on Weather Nation they appear to have corrected the statement now explaining you need to leave and get to higher ground even if it's a roof and Ill agree with that now. Regardless, a heartbreaking situation there. 

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21 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Euro looks like it stalls for the next 12 hours, then drifts southward over the N Gulf, re-energizing rainfall to the east. Has 12'+ more coming for IAH.

Typo: I know you meant 12 inches not 12 feet, but figured with these insane amounts someone might actually believe 12 feet.  

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Royal Caribbean has finally admitted that they won't be docking Liberty of the Seas in Galveston anytime soon, and that ship is headed to Miami, per pax onboard.

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5 minutes ago, PennyForYourThoughts said:

Foxnews reporting Coast Guard helicopters from all over the nation being deployed to Houston.   

They have to backfill those units. During Katrina, the entire Coast Guard received the Humanitarian Service Medal because it took almost the entire service to respond in some way. Even those units covering for the deployed units. I have two Humanitarian Service Medals, one from Hurricane Ivan and one from 9-11. Probably the two awards I am the most proud of. 

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Report from my buddy in the Heights, a few blocks from the white oak bayou but with elevation:  white oak bayou is as high as he's ever seen it and still rising; his neighborhood dry but he may end up with some water in his basement eventually;  they went out for tacos for lunch.

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Why in every briefing are they saying the water will recede like they've already crested. I guess it has more to do with trying to calm the people, but there is a point where lying isn't going to help anyone. 

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Just now, osbornjp88 said:

Why in every briefing are they saying the water will recede like they've already crested. I guess it has more to do with trying to calm the people, but there is a point where lying isn't going to help anyone. 

In fairness, some of these bayous do have a very quick Up/Down time. From experience in tax day floods in 2016, the street flooding also disappears quickly if it's just a foot or two of water (which it is in lots of areas).

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Looks like that band west of the city may spare inside the loop from its worst. Hopefully the city can get a minor reprieve this afternoon.

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Just now, Cary said:

Sheriffnado in Fort Bend County.

They're all waterspouts now and NWS won't be able to distinguish the damage.

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Anyone know what the record is for tornado warnings in a tropical cyclone? I can't find anything. Harvey has probably already annihilated that or will before the event over.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Anyone know what the record is for tornado warnings in a tropical cyclone? I can't find anything. Harvey has probably already annihilated that or will before the event over.

Dunno about warnings, but Ivan spawned an estimated 117 tornadoes. Harvey hasn't had that many warnings, let alone confirmed touchdowns

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Anyone know what the record is for tornado warnings in a tropical cyclone? I can't find anything. Harvey has probably already annihilated that or will before the event over.

Don't know about warnings issued, but I believe Ivan produced 117 tornadoes... so I doubt this is anywhere close to a record for warnings issued.

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Anyone know what the record is for tornado warnings in a tropical cyclone? I can't find anything. Harvey has probably already annihilated that or will before the event over.

I don't know about the number of TW's, but Ivan holds the records for the most tornadoes, so I'd imagine he would also hold the record for TW's as well?

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1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Appears on radar that Houston might get a brief break soon.

I was thinking the opposite--that area to its south seems to be filling in, the stuff coming in off the coast is widening westward.

 

 

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1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Appears on radar that Houston might get a brief break soon.

Yea but this afternoon is looking a lot like yesterday at this time with more intense bands building in from the south and east.

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