Harvey - Main Thread

[WxWatcher007]

Early, I know, so if it's out of line Mods feel free to nuke the thread. A new wave has rolled off the African coast, and all the major operational guidance has development in the next few days. More impressive, the GEFS and EPS are bullish on the wave and its long term development chances. Way too early to say what happens with the track, but the NHC has already labeled it an invest despite the low odds given for development in the next 2-5 days. 

First critical thing I'll be looking at--SAL. It has been harassing anything in the MDR all season. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge
with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Roberts

[NorthArlington101]

18z DOOM run

 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z DOOM run

 

Makes its landfall (or a near-landfall) at NC/SC border at 971mb. Then lurks off the coast for hours. Surely tons of imaginary erosion. Off in fantasy land. If you want to DOOM-cast even harder, note that the model has it gain 30mb (952 to 988) between 240-252, probably because it shifts to a lower res in the long range. 

[MJV]

try www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current and in 4-5 days---maybe we get something in the Atlantic Basin---that makes a serious run this way. That's a nice solution---though.

[bdgwx]

The GFS actually has 91L tracking very close to the path totality. I wonder...what are the odds...ah nevermind.

[NJwx85]

The track on the 18z GFS is reminiscint of Matthew.

[Diggiebot]

Let's actually get a cyclone before we worry about track. Pretty big differences in the euro and gfs and we all know how well the gfs has done with the tropics lately. I'd side more with the euro for now. 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Let's actually get a cyclone before we worry about track. Pretty big differences in the euro and gfs and we all know how well the gfs has done with the tropics lately. I'd side more with the euro for now. 

Every model shows the storm gaining strength. Long ways out but this might get interesting soon.

[bigtenfan]

From this distance the forecast will change many times.

That said it is interesting that  the GFS 18z had a doomsday storm for the Carolinas, the 00z has a somewhat weaker storm just off the NC coast and the 06Z looks to have lost the storm all together.

The Euro has been somewhat more consistent with yesterday's 12z carrying the storm through the Florida straights heading into the GOM and the 00Z having the storm into the GOM albeit taking a slightly more southern route to get there.

[ldub23]

Since the gfs says the same  old dry air and shear keeps the season dead  im ignoring the Euro. When both models agree on a real storm developing then we should watch.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Since the gfs says the same  old dry air and shear keeps the season dead  im ignoring the Euro. When both models agree on a real storm developing then we should watch.

The GFS has been consistent in showing development. Unless 12z continues to dissipate the system we're going to assume that the 06z run was a fluke.

[bigtenfan]

While i do not think that any of the models have been reliable this tropical season so far if I had to choose one to rely on it would be either the Euro or the UK

[NJwx85]

While the 06z GFS may have backed off on development, look at the individual 06z GEFS members. 

[bdgwx]

0Z UKMET has it tracking toward the southern end of the Yucatan by D7.

[NJwx85]

That's two runs in a row that the GFS dissipates the system. I see no reason to change my overall thinking which is that we'll see a TC in less than 7 days near the islands.

[NJwx85]

FWIW the 12z HWRF takes this down to a 969mb cane near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. 

[eurojosh]

4 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

While i do not think that any of the models have been reliable this tropical season so far if I had to choose one to rely on it would be either the Euro or the UK

Euro shows a wide recurve this time.  Still a few days before we have any real consensus on this.

[NJwx85]

29 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Euro shows a wide recurve this time.  Still a few days before we have any real consensus on this.

Wrong wave. 91L remains weak and enters the Caribbean, eventually making landfall as a weak system in Central America. The wave behind 91L develops into a strong hurricane which recurves near 60W.

[ldub23]

development delayed means no development. Nothing  of interest will develop in the atlantic desert. Until both models agree on development its all fantasy. However many invests develop they will be  no different that 99L. If they ever develop at all it will be after they escape the desert or get  into the BOC. I sure hope  no one will repeat that  in 2005  we had the same number of storms. This season cant even begin to compare with 2005.

[NJwx85]

29 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

development delayed means no development. Nothing  of interest will develop in the atlantic desert. Until both models agree on development its all fantasy. However many invests develop they will be  no different that 99L. If they ever develop at all it will be after they escape the desert or get  into the BOC. I sure hope  no one will repeat that  in 2005  we had the same number of storms. This season cant even begin to compare with 2005.

Aren't you the same poster that said 99L wouldn't develop? 

[ldub23]

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

That's two runs in a row that the GFS dissipates the system. I see no reason to change my overall thinking which is that we'll see a TC in less than 7 days near the islands.

I think by tonight  or tues we will see the Euro cave to the GFS and drop any tropical development.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I think by tonight  or tues we will see the Euro cave to the GFS and drop any tropical development.

The GEFS ensembles love 91L, with several individual members bringing it into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong system. The EPS also maintains development. Until the ensembles completely lose the system I wouldn't be tossing any one solution.

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GEFS ensembles love 91L, with several individual members bringing it into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong system. The EPS also maintains development. Until the ensembles completely lose the system I wouldn't be tossing any one solution.

Thats the way it usually  works.

[NJwx85]

Just now, ldub23 said:

Thats the way it usually  works.

I think the lack of exciting storms to track recently has skewed your judgement with this upcoming pattern. The odds are certainly against a major impact in the United States, but we should get at least one or two significant storms in the Atlantic over the next 2-3 weeks based on the conditions. The upcoming Kelvin wave is going to help.

[ldub23]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Aren't you the same poster that said 99L wouldn't develop? 

Yea, and it didnt do anything until it got  out  of the tropics. Certainly of  no interest though i did also say several times  if  it managed to struggle  out  of the desert  it might  develop some. the atlantic  is totally  dominated by dry sinking air.

[ldub23]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I think the lack of exciting storms to track recently has skewed your judgement with this upcoming pattern. The odds are certainly against a major impact in the United States, but we should get at least one or two significant storms in the Atlantic over the next 2-3 weeks based on the conditions. The upcoming Kelvin wave is going to help.

I seriously doubt a  kelvin wave can overcome desert  like  conditions. indeed the saharan desert seems to have found a  home  in the atlantic tropics for years now. I wouldnt be shocked to see another 1 day storm that falls apart. I also think we could get a storm after its  out  of the tropics and turning east out  in nowhere.

[ldub23]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago

Like Gert etc, dont believe GFS or the euro getting rid of what I think will be Harvey. Pattern ripe as waves come west now

 

I guess the  pattern is ripe if you discount the dry sinking air.

[SteveVa]

When I read posters like you, ldub23, I feel like I'm browsing the Wunderground blog (or whatever it's called now.)

Ontopic:

91L is a pretty big system with competing vortices which is always hard for models to handle. I don't think a lot of people actually believed in really fast consolidation as was depicted in previous runs of the models. We just have to wait and see, but I personally expect Harvey to come out of 91L.

[NJwx85]

The 18z GFS now develops 91L, albeit it stays relatively weak, but it's distinctly there.

[ldub23]

Will have to see if it becomes  consistent  or  if the euro drops  it. lots  of dry air to deal with