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WxWatcher007

Harvey - Main Thread

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One factor starting to become a negative regarding strengthening is the center of the storm is beginning to approach the continental shelf and the shallow water will began limiting oceanic heat content. Also as it slows upwelling may begin to have an effect. I think realistically it's window for strengthening is about the next 4-6 hours or so.

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1 minute ago, SteveVa said:

It's very foolish to focus this much on wind speeds. 110mph or 120 -- doesn't really make a difference. It only makes a difference to us who follow these things closely.

The freshwater flooding threat should be emphasized and there shouldn't be any talks about "busting" because Harvey won't reach Cat 4 (even though it might)

I think we're looking at a much bigger range of wind possibilities than 110-120.  Your larger point about emphasizing flooding stands though.  You can generally hide from the wind, even extreme winds.  There were only 15 direct fatalities in Florida during Andrew and 9 in Charley for example.   Flooding probably killed over 1k in Katrina.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12Z Euro coming in more extreme. Essentially stalls near landfall location for 120 hrs with 50" max now.

The trough diving down from the plains now completely misses him...

50" of rain? Harvey may not need to reemerge over open waters to reintensfy, if he turns Southeast Texas into an extension of the Gulf...

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Just now, Windspeed said:
6 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:
PJLVXLu.gif&key=76f8f798d029d2cd6a9d626de951559a859da390f0dfde59b3b4f33d5ec79143

Looks to be undergoing yet another ERC.
 

The ERC is pretty much over. What you are seeing is remnant cloud debris breaking down inside the new eyewall. That should continue to clear out as long as convection doesn't refire with that old lingering cell.

Thanks. Sorry for clogging up the thread with false info; I would have sworn that was an ERC. :wacko:

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm sorry that biblical flooding isn't on your desired list. 

Euro came in even more extreme. More stalled solution not far from landfall point for the next 5-6 days with nearly a 60" max.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_tx_26.thumb.png.1e04b533f34d0783b1bd3aed97553de4.png

 

 

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Just a quick note on geographic terminology:

When locals say SE Texas, they're typically referring to Houston and eastward locales like Beaumont and Port Arthur. 

Areas around Corpus, Victoria, and Aransas are usually called South Texas.

Then, Brownsville, McAllen, etc are simply "The Valley." 

Obviously there's a high degree of imprecision here but just trying to give a general idea. 

 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Euro came in even more extreme. More stalled solution not far from landfall point for the next 5-6 days with nearly a 60" max.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_tx_26.thumb.png.1e04b533f34d0783b1bd3aed97553de4.png

 

 

60.4" MAX TO BE EXACT

59a06e51778d8.png

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If it's 959 mb with a 105 kt flight level wind observation, that's not in the eye people.

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3 minutes ago, andyhb said:

98 kt SFMR, that should be enough to upgrade to a Cat 3 if uncontaminated.

Dropsonde had 102 kts at the surface. 

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IEW is definitely not gone, and continues to fight...



That lone cell is being persistently stubborn to dissipate. But it should get choked off eventually.

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Starting to feel a tad better about a direct hit in Corpus Christi from the worst of the surge/wind. Winds remain dead out of the north there and the motion appears to be more NNW than NW which would take it right toward Corpus Christi. Most likely area for landfall looks to be around Seadrift/Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca area. 

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The IEW is still apparent from what I'm looking at. However, the higher angled slices do show it opening up now. 

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27 minutes ago, Msalgado said:

This hurricane has 10-12 hours to go over the gulf and it's just completing an EWRC in a good environment for intensification.  Anyone saying that it can't strengthen anymore is flat out wrong.  It can hit CAT 4.  It may not - and it probably won't - but the elimination of that scenario is not based in reality.

If I remember correctly, the capacity to recover from an ERC is determined in large part by the favorability of the envt. in which it embarks on said changes.

 

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