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Harvey - Main Thread

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37 minutes ago, SEAwx said:

If 90% of deaths in hurricanes and tropical storms are water related, with the unprecedented nature of Harvey and the in scope population, everything points to a very large casualty toll.  It remains to be seen is the tally exceeds the 1800+ from Katina, but initial numbers were slow to come out then as well.  What will likely happen first is a huge number of missing, which gets worked down as comms are restored and people make contact.  But the initial and final numbers are going to be big.

I mean, if the # of fatalities ends up over 1,000, then I guess congrats to the people who called it first, but I don't think we should be going there at this point.  I saw that a lot of grocery stores were running out of stuff before the storm, so hopefully most people have several days worth of food/water.  There would be an added level of suck if people were not drowning at home but dying due to running out of supplies.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I agree. There is enough information to accurately draw this conclusion. How much more than Katrina? Who knows. 

The point is, without a doubt, the costs will be unprecedented. 

I still think it's likely to place third behind Katrina and Sandy. The economic impact alone of a storm effecting NYC and Jersey is almost impossible to top. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You can see the dry air starting to shut off the more efficient rainfall production from Houston west on radar.  

Looks to be filling in as opposed to retreating .

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It's obviously still raining hard in some areas mainly east and south of Houston, but Houston proper and the west metro area have seen significantly decreased rates since yesterday, as the airport numbers demonstrate. Hard to say a "bullet was dodged" with the ongoing devastation, but the situation would almost certainly be more dire for more people had the heavy rains been focused further west.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very costly recent era for storm damages.

1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $105,840,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $45,561,000,000
3. Ike (TX/LA/MS) 2008 2 $27,790,000,000
4. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,587,000,000
5. Ivan (FL/AL) 2004 3 $19,832,000,000
6. Charley (FL) 2004 4 $15,820,000,000
7. Irene (NC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/NY/CT/VT/NH/ME) 2011 1 $15,800,000,000
8. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $9,739,820,675
9. Rita (LA/TX) 2005 3 $11,797,000,000
10. Agnes (NE U.S.) 1972 1 $11,760,000,000

Sandy?

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Just for reference, in case someone does not know, Hurricane Katrina cost a record 108 billion dollars (2005 USD).

In terms of today's dollars, that's about $130 billion.

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I still think it's likely to place third behind Katrina and Sandy. The economic impact alone of a storm effecting NYC and Jersey is almost impossible to top. 



I dont recall NYC being destroys. It barely even Flooded.

Jersey had some flooding but still not compared to this but still had lot of damage on beach front


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, StormFollowerUSA said:

 


I dont recall NYC being destroys. It barely even Flooded.

Jersey had some flooding but still not compared to this but still had lot of damage on beach front


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

NYC barely flooded during Sandy?

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very costly recent era for storm damages.

1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $105,840,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $45,561,000,000
3. Ike (TX/LA/MS) 2008 2 $27,790,000,000
4. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,587,000,000
5. Ivan (FL/AL) 2004 3 $19,832,000,000
6. Charley (FL) 2004 4 $15,820,000,000
7. Irene (NC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/NY/CT/VT/NH/ME) 2011 1 $15,800,000,000
8. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $9,739,820,675
9. Rita (LA/TX) 2005 3 $11,797,000,000
10. Agnes (NE U.S.) 1972 1 $11,760,000,000

Are those numbers adjusted for inflation? Obviously Katrina would have top spot regardless, but not sure about some of the others compared to past storms. Of course, further development in hurricane-prone areas has only exacerbated the costs.

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3 minutes ago, StormFollowerUSA said:

 


I dont recall NYC being destroys. It barely even Flooded.

Jersey had some flooding but still not compared to this but still had lot of damage on beach front


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, tacoman25 said:

Are those numbers adjusted for inflation? Obviously Katrina would have top spot regardless, but not sure about some of the others compared to past storms. Of course, further development in hurricane-prone areas has only exacerbated the costs.

I believe those figures are current dollars, not inflation-adjusted amounts.

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2 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

Are those numbers adjusted for inflation? Obviously Katrina would have top spot regardless, but not sure about some of the others compared to past storms. Of course, further development in hurricane-prone areas has only exacerbated the costs.

That is an old list. Wouldn't let me post the updated version for some reason. That's why I deleted the post. You guys are too quick to the draw to quote.;)

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13 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Center is attempting to co-locate with the convection. Brief opportunity for spinup later as it tucks underneath the canopy.

Seeing some immediate responses in convective development around the center of circulation in both Vis Sat and Radar.

1307.thumb.png.93721f6d648a58f57c5ceed5b1dfe868.png

1306.thumb.gif.f48d146802d9d76e30d2e97c2369c03f.gif

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Have some distant inlaws that live in Pearland / SE Harris County that have been fine until yesterday.  Water flooded the streets yesterday and because of the strong south winds today, little drainage is occuring and the water is now backing up into homes across the area.  These folks just cant win.

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14 minutes ago, das said:

Seeing some immediate responses in convective development around the center of circulation in both Vis Sat and Radar.

1307.thumb.png.93721f6d648a58f57c5ceed5b1dfe868.png

1306.thumb.gif.f48d146802d9d76e30d2e97c2369c03f.gif

Not sure if it's the relocation, or the convection is  pulling the center left, or  maybe it's just a wobble but it sure looks like it's moving almost due north now.. Such a course would keep the worst of the banding right over the hardest hit areas for as long as possible/until the center passes. HRRR isn't doing a good job with the track....last few runs had it moving well to the east. 

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Is that showing another chance of a disturbance in the Gulf in 5 days or is that Harvey?

 

 

Chance of another disturbance. Latest GFS has some tropical moisture coming up towards Houston as something really weak pressure wise, but it drops a lot of rain again. I believe a fair amount of its ENS members (at least at 06z) had it too.

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Katrina damaged or destroyed 800,000 homes 

Sandy damaged or destroyed 650,000 homes

Keep in mind with Sandy that property values contributed a significant amount to the 50 billion tag there. I just don't see damage comparable with either of these events. What was the population of Rockport Texas, the hardest hit area with landfall? 10,000? So if 800,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in Katrina setting the bar for highest damage then I think you can argue realistically that no where close to 800,000 homes are damaged or destroyed in this case so the total cannot be higher. Yes I know the event is still in progress but I would absolutely welcome a disagreeing counterpoint as long as it's civil. I would like to see a map maybe of the Houston area and what exactly is underwater. 

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Is that showing another chance of a disturbance in the Gulf in 5 days or is that Harvey?

Harvey is long gone. That looks like it is coming from the SW Gulf and moving north to Texas. 

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Is that showing another chance of a disturbance in the Gulf in 5 days or is that Harvey?

That's showing another disturbance. 00z EURO ENS hinted at that as well.

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Have some distant inlaws that live in Pearland / SE Harris County that have been fine until yesterday.  Water flooded the streets yesterday and because of the strong south winds today, little drainage is occuring and the water is now backing up into homes across the area.  These folks just cant win.

One of my brother-in-laws' Aunt & cousin is in the Richmond area and just heard from my sister that they were in a mandatory evacation area but are okay.

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Chance of another disturbance. Latest GFS has some tropical moisture coming up towards Houston as something really weak pressure wise, but it drops a lot of rain again. I believe a fair amount of its ENS members (at least at 06z) had it too.



GFS 24hr rain @ 162-186

1bf53cbcc913b9dbda9113d0cdb5a8a5.png

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4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Is that showing another chance of a disturbance in the Gulf in 5 days or is that Harvey?

That's showing another disturbance. 00z EURO ENS hinted at that as well.

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