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Harvey - Main Thread

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1 hour ago, eurojosh said:

My understanding is that the hrrr essentially extrapolates from a snapshot of current conditions. If the globals show Harvey drifting southward, it wouldn't necessarily account for that in where it sets up the bands more than a couple of hours out.

Happy for others to correct me on this.

 

ETA- tldr: if Harvey doesn't move, it should be accurate. If it does, nasomuch.

 

  sorry, but I do need to take you up on your offer to be corrected if needed.     While the HRRR does assimilate radar reflectivity data, so that it starts with a better idea of the initial state than a lot of other models, it's still a model like all the rest, meaning that its equations can absolutely figure out where a system is going to move.     The weak steering currents, though, make it challenging for ANY model today to get the exact position of the center, so the placement of the bands in the forecasts could certainly be off, but it's not because the model is structurally incapable of predicting their location.

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5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Do you have confirmation of that or a link from an official source?

If you mean the CG part, it is admittedly hearsay via passengers posting from onboard the ship. Example:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showpost.php?p=53906576&postcount=210

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showpost.php?p=53906135&postcount=1021

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I want to remind you of this: The NWS WPC saw the fairly high rainfall amounts output by the models on 8/22, a full 12 hrs or more before the NHC re-classified Harvey as a 30kt Tropical Depression (early on 8/23). When I saw this on 8/22, I thought it might be a billion dollar disaster just due to rain alone, due to the area of that 5-10" zone. At the time, I thought Harvey would become 40-60mph tropical storm, and the wind part would not be too damaging. Of course, the models such as the HWRF were not too aggressive at that point in time. So the emergency management had to have some idea that very heavy rain was in the future.

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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Also to the discussions regarding evacuations of Houston--evacuate them to where??? And how??? 

Is there any area within 150 miles that isn't either dealing with significant flooding or wind/surge related damage? 

Those pointing blame at local government are being ridiculous. This flooding was predicted to be hundreds and hundreds of miles, and it's verifying that way.

There was new solution to this. There was no possible full evacuation. 

The focus should be cleanup, recovery, and response in the weeks to come after rescues cease, water recedes. 

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Starting to fill in over Central Houston once again. The suburbs north and east of the city center have been getting absolutely RAKED for the last two hours. 

Also, check out the cells coming in off of Bolivar Peninsula. Some supercell structures embedded in them.

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Somehow, some friends of mine that live in Houston actually went out earlier for lunch. Their neighborhood has been spared so far fortunately, but have also seen friends resharing relative's posts asking for help. 

 

While I think it's no question this ends up being one of the costliest disasters in American history, do keep in mind that Katrina also destroyed 90% of the 90 mile Mississippi Gulf Coast to a half mile inland - some areas past 6 miles inland in addition to New Orleans. 

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Royal Caribbean Liberty of the Seas as well as some Carnival ships will instead be heading to Miami.

Common sense creeps in.

The idea of dumping a few thousand mostly elderly passengers into a catastrophe zone was beyond stupid. 

Perhaps someone had a word with the managements involved.

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1 minute ago, etudiant said:

Common sense creeps in.

The idea of dumping a few thousand mostly elderly passengers into a catastrophe zone was beyond stupid. 

Perhaps someone had a word with the managements involved.

Now I think I am wrong about the Carnival ships,  looks like they will be in NOLA

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That tornado photo is from yesterday's Cypress, TX hit.

I've seen a couple of social media accounts comment that their family members in the Barker Reservoir floodplain have gotten notice there will be controlled releases shortly.  Which if true, is not unexpected, but ouch.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

  sorry, but I do need to take you up on your offer to be corrected if needed.     While the HRRR does assimilate radar reflectivity data, so that it starts with a better idea of the initial state than a lot of other models, it's still a model like all the rest, meaning that its equations can absolutely figure out where a system is going to move.     The weak steering currents, though, make it challenging for ANY model today to get the exact position of the center, so the placement of the bands in the forecasts could certainly be off, but it's not because the model is structurally incapable of predicting their location.

Thank you, much appreciated.

I do note that the 3k NAM is setting up significantly south of the HRRR. What do you think accounts for this variance in hi res models?

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Even though though the flood waters are warm, hypothermia can be a very real problem as time goes on.  80 degree water is still 18 degrees colder than you are and hypothermia could very easily set in over time.

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20 minutes ago, cbrown1990 said:

Somehow, some friends of mine that live in Houston actually went out earlier for lunch. Their neighborhood has been spared so far fortunately, but have also seen friends resharing relative's posts asking for help. 

 

While I think it's no question this ends up being one of the costliest disasters in American history, do keep in mind that Katrina also destroyed 90% of the 90 mile Mississippi Gulf Coast to a half mile inland - some areas past 6 miles inland in addition to New Orleans. 

Austin is 250 miles from the Louisiana border and 150 miles from the Texas Coast. Corpus Christi is 300 miles from the Louisiana border. This entire area is potentially a disaster zone. 

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Yellow returns are ramping back up over Houston and are rapidly increasing in areal coverage. I really really wish they could catch a break. I like rain but this is horrific. I keep thinking about those poor nursing home ladies all awash in flood waters and nowhere to go. Someone really needs to please go rescue them.

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That cell in E Harris is producing some insane rates 4"+/hr.

Also, COC still seems to be drifting E, Will have to see if that effects forecast going forward.

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1 minute ago, Jebman said:

I keep thinking about those poor nursing home ladies all awash in flood waters and nowhere to go. Someone really needs to please go rescue them.

Apparently they were airlifted out.

 

Unless you were talking about the other nursing homes in the area.

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