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Cerakoter1984

OK/AR/KS/MO 2017 Autumn Disco and OBS.

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Autumn is coming pretty quickly. Thought some early discussion would be nice. Been a spectacular summer for me. Things are greener in August and more alive looking than I remember seeing in many many years. I am incredibly ready for autumn to begin though as I believe it will be quite beautiful this year.

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It has been several years since we had a full color fall here in the southern Ozarks . I'm speaking of the best color that I had ever seen . It was magical . Would love for it to happen this fall .

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Same here. Probably been 5 years  or so since I have seen full color or the trees haven't held their leaves too long and turned straight brown because of drought. I don't usually look forward to autumn as a season itself but I'm looking forward to it this year.

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Looking like we run near avg to above for most of the area in the next 2 weeks but September looks solidly cool for most of us at this point. Longer range guidance keeps cooling further with each run over the central CONUS. Days like today just make me even more ready for fall.

 

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I put out a Fall Outlook using MJJ conditions (PDO, ONI, AMO), observed ABQ weather conditions MJJ (90F days, MJJ mean high), change in ONI from DJF to MJJ, and also (estimated) sunspots for July-June.

Looked like a cooler Fall than last year nationally, expecting Fall to be 3F cooler than last year here, with October in particular much colder.

https://tinyurl.com/y8ae83v5

 

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Nice forecast raindancewx. Enjoyed reading it. One thing that did get my attention, though, is that La Niña conditions look like they will be now somewhat likely to at least an extent through part or all of fall/winter. What are your thoughts in that instance?

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I Hate Severe Weather ! When I'm I hear Lightning & Hit Ceiling Hard ! ! Than I'm up Rest of nite CAN'T go back to sleep !


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I'm not looking forward to the 90s I have to put up with for the next week. I've been enjoying the cooler weather over the past three weeks back in Norman. I'd like to see some rain and thunderstorms sometime too.

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Yeah. Hot again but October looking really awesome from what I hear. Still hoping for beautiful fall colors this year but it has gotten very dry lately, which I wasn't expecting.

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Hello from Owasso. Is it ever going to snow again?

I just started following this board. I've always been interested, know next to nothing, but following to learn more


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On 9/15/2017 at 2:34 AM, Cerakoter1984 said:

Yeah. Hot again but October looking really awesome from what I hear. Still hoping for beautiful fall colors this year but it has gotten very dry lately, which I wasn't expecting.

I think you can kiss fall color goodbye in this region again this year.   Just like the past 2 yrs, really dry conditions have set up at the wrong time,  leaves are dying and falling off prematurely. 

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It's finally looking to cool off and rain some in the next few days. It might not get out of the 60s on Wednesday. And after the rain stops it looks like we're supposed to get pleasant weather with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

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On 9/16/2017 at 9:53 AM, mbkemp said:

Hello from Owasso. Is it ever going to snow again?

I just started following this board. I've always been interested, know next to nothing, but following to learn more


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Thinking you have a decent shot of seeing snow this year.

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It’s been a while. I had the opportunity in 95-96 to experience lake effect off Lake Ontario. I miss that kind of snow


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On 10/3/2017 at 4:33 AM, Cerakoter1984 said:

Weather looking very cool to cold after the 10th. Should get those leaves changing really quickly though.

It's cool today but it looks like it will be near to above normal the rest of the week.

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On 10/10/2017 at 0:31 PM, lookingnorth said:

It's cool today but it looks like it will be near to above normal the rest of the week.

Yeah. It warmed back up a couple of days but looking like we're starting a fast step-down pattern now though.

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