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John1122

Fall 2017 Great Tennessee Valley Outlook

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Looks like two stout cold fronts the rest of the month, this week and Thanksgiving week. Looks mild in between though.

On ‎11‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 7:11 PM, Ranger said:

Jeff, when you talk about a cold shift coming around Thanksgiving, are you talking about cold that will be entrenched for a while, say at least 2 weeks, or something that is more transient in nature, say a week or less? 

I would still call the fronts both transient by themselves, with a warm interlude. However we just might get two weekly periods to average BN.

Separately for the entire forum, I will not comment on Thanksgiving precipitation models until that week. I'm of course in default skeptic mode.

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12z EPS and 18z GFS had BN to seasonal temps.  Looks like fall or early winter.  If the winter reflects November, we need some cold.  Again, I like the 60/40 idea of 60% slightly AN temps w 40% cold for the winter w one or two extreme bouts of cold.  I will roll w normal snowfall for first to last flake whenever that is.  DJFMA.  The 12z Euro looked set to deliver major cold days 8-10 w an East based NAO.

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0z/6z GFS are cold.  I assume the 6z GEFS will also be cold, The 0z Euro/EPS are also cold.  The GFS has been slightly more consistent(compared to itself no the Euro)  w cold but still swinging wildly from run to run at times.  Usually happens when cold air is in Canada.  It is also having troubles w what to do near Greenland.  

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Things are looking good as far as finishing below normal for November temp wise. As I've posted before, it's not 100 percent that BN November meant a good winter, but it was a very high correlation between the two. Above normal November was even higher for AN winters. 

It's been BN here for several days now. It's well below today, having only made it to 44 degrees so far this afternoon, which is about 15 degrees BN for here. I know you have to take the accuweather 2 week forcast with a grain of salt, but I think it had 2 days in the next 15 for me with a normal high, and the other 13 were 3-10 degrees below normal. 

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Things are looking good as far as finishing below normal for November temp wise. As I've posted before, it's not 100 percent that BN November meant a good winter, but it was a very high correlation between the two. Above normal November was even higher for AN winters. 

It's been BN here for several days now. It's well below today, having only made it to 44 degrees so far this afternoon, which is about 15 degrees BN for here. I know you have to take the accuweather 2 week forcast with a grain of salt, but I think it had 2 days in the next 15 for me with a normal high, and the other 13 were 3-10 degrees below normal. 

I will gladly take a BN November and cross my fingers that the rest of the winter follows suit.  I do think it is a positive that we've had BN temps consistently this month, instead of just a couple of days here and there.  M anxious to start seeing what the December long range looks like!!

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Weeklies map for today.  Map pretty much sums up the run,. BN to normal...more normal than not.  Ridge out west.  Conflicting teleconnections...As Jeff said, battle between the SER and cold air.  This is a great set-up for mid-winter, if we can get it to mid-winter.  Cold fronts will be stronger then potentially.  Right now it is fall and climo does not support staying power for cold.  The trend is definitely modification by the Weeklies to more of a seasonal look.  But the ridge is still west...and a good rule of thumb is the Weeklies are a bit warm as a bias in the long run.  Snow is very similar.  6-7 for TRI.  3 for TYS.  1-2 most everywhere else.  I don't expect that to verify.  I just look to see if amount increase as that signals storminess.  The pattern depicted is very dry. The CFSv2, which is flip flop city, does support the general seasonal idea of the SER battling incoming cold.  To me, that is the pattern for winter.  Now if a block can form, it will drastically change things as cold is available over a snowpack to our north.   This would have been what I expected last winter had the SuperNino not fried the northern hemisphere.  I think this winter has some really nice cold w bouts of warm in between.  But when it is all said and done...somebody from Memphis to TRI is going to have some nice winter wx.  Hoping our friends in the far west areas of TN and northern MS/AL can score some frozen precip this winter.  That has ice written all over it at some point if the pattern persists into the heart of winter.

IMG_1081.PNG

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I think we may really book two BN weeks ending at/right after Thanksgiving. Still a few mild days, but 7-day average stats look BN both weeks. Encouraging..

Next question is, how do we transition into a mild start for December? Sometimes WAA gins up a storm. However it's November, not February, so I'll go with quiet warm up.

Euro weeklies verbatim (LOL week 6) show a better chance of severe weather than snow for Christmas. :o

 

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12 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I think we may really book two BN weeks ending at/right after Thanksgiving. Still a few mild days, but 7-day average stats look BN both weeks. Encouraging..

Next question is, how do we transition into a mild start for December? Sometimes WAA gins up a storm. However it's November, not February, so I'll go with quiet warm up.

Euro weeklies verbatim (LOL week 6) show a better chance of severe weather than snow for Christmas. :o

 

I am going to be singing Silent Night w thunder and lightning for the harmony?  :lightning:

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Looks like some potential at the end of the month for a monster storm.  If it comes to fruition, OKC to Knoxville would have snow on the ground.  Still a ways out but it's nice to have some things to ponder on!!  The global 15 day is where I saw the fantasy map if anybody wants to check it out.

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42 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Looks like some potential at the end of the month for a monster storm.  If it comes to fruition, OKC to Knoxville would have snow on the ground.  Still a ways out but it's nice to have some things to ponder on!!  The global 15 day is where I saw the fantasy map if anybody wants to check it out.

I love these fantasy storms the GFS spits out, but the Euro was a dumpster fire. At least we are getting fantasy storms this early in the winter season. I don't remember seeing them until January last winter season.

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53 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

I love these fantasy storms the GFS spits out, but the Euro was a dumpster fire. At least we are getting fantasy storms this early in the winter season. I don't remember seeing them until January last winter season.

I was thinkIng the same thing,  It's nice to see in November.  Maybe we can all score a good December this year!!

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As we near the end of fall...the Weeklies do give a good clue to the first part of winter.  Again, any normal temps I generally view as BN.  OTH, when it is warm...that generally verifies.  BN usually means cold.  Last night's run had BN temps for the first couple of weeks and the last week or two.  The middle four weeks are generally seasonal w some AN temps for the forum area.  The ridge stays west.  The 0z EPS supports the Weeklies as it colder than the GEFS through d15.  The past few Weeklies trended warmer ever so slightly w the 46 day mean of BN temps still centered over the E/SE.  Snow increased slightly over the western and southwestern forum areas.  It decreased slightly  for the eastern forum areas.  Still, it was a nice mean w an absolute hammer on the control for the eastern Valley.  Probably for banter, but the 32-46 day window featured a massive "model" storm that went from New Orleans to New England.  We all know that is total fantasy...but it does show what can happen w cold lurking,  The temp map (posted for the earlier run) is pretty similar to last night's.  Just reduce the cold in Canada.  My biggest take is that this run fits with what many have said...base pattern is warm w some strong cold involved.  It did seem to wash-out in places w no clear pattern during the middle weeks as evidenced by all of NA being warmish which rarely happens.   My next Weeklies post will go in the winter thread.   If forced to name a pattern...ridge west, trough east w undercutting of the eastern trough by the SER.

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Carvers is on point. CFS is in reasonable agreement, with the usual timing differences. At least they are not polar opposites. Pun intended there.

Tough forecasting may go for a while. One almost has to wait for ensembles and operational runs to see correct timing of pattern shifts. Speaking of those, they seem to be getting colder again right after Thanksgiving. We'll see.

Silver lining of tough forecasting: At least it's getting cold occasionally. Have a good weekend!

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Carvers and Jeff, I really appreciate you guys staying on top of all of this and sharing with the rest of us.  Very nice summaries of what the models are showing.  The camper is winterized, I say bring on the cold!  Hoping for at least a couple of snows this winter.  Two 3 inchers would put us at average here in Knoxville.  Anything more would be amazing.

Cheers!  :guitar:

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7 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

Carvers and Jeff, I really appreciate you guys staying on top of all of this and sharing with the rest of us.  Very nice summaries of what the models are showing.  The camper is winterized, I say bring on the cold!  Hoping for at least a couple of snows this winter.  Two 3 inchers would put us at average here in Knoxville.  Anything more would be amazing.

Cheers!  :guitar:

Have to really echo what is said here! I find it so much easier to simply scan for their posts for a quick synopsis of what to expect. As opposed to some that fill posts with meteorological jargon, they tend to do things in laymen's terms, which is exactly what I need!

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Thanks for the kind compliments.  But man, I really enjoy reading everybody's posts...too many great posters to name.  I also like seeing folks from all over the forum area add input.  It is always great this time of year to see everyone come back for another year of tracking winter wx. 

Just a brief wx comment. The 18z GEFS and 12z EPS both really like the ridge in the west and trough in the East.  We will see wha the 0z GEFS brings as the operational liked AN heights over the top in the medium range w persistent cool wx in the south. Stil, too early w climo for snow chances.  But when we hit the third week in December...that changes.  So, right now just trying to read the tea leaves and guess the winter pattern.  

It is really howling out there...saw one of the LSU kids talking after their UT game.  His teeth were chattering.  The wind is howling here at the moment.    Just hearing that roar is a great sound.  

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  Looks like we should Have BN temps to close out the rest of November.  It's supposed to drop down to 28 tonight at my place,  Gotta love that.  Our friends to the north in Kentucky might get a small shot of winter the first week of December too!  Winter is fast approaching and I for one cannot wait!

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4 hours ago, John1122 said:

Sitting at 38 degrees here at noon. Power was out most of the night last night after that squall line moved through. Wide spread damage around the area with falling trees and downed power lines.

  I Hope anyone who received damage is ok,  that wind was some kind of intense!  

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Hope the lights and heat are back on for this cold morning. BN temp regime should prevail through early next week.

Looks like some milder temps try to nudge in for the very end of the month and perhaps the first week of Dec. Looking at weeklies and ensembles/clusters. No blowtorch, but I figure a week or so of AN temps first week of Dec.

CFS wants to keep all of December warm which is doubtful. Euro weeklies introduce another cold front around 7-10 Dec. Overall charts are meh but it has some cold clusters. I favor the more volatile Euro over the mild CFS. Trend is my friend.

I echo that our regional forum enjoys high quality posts from all members, very little fluff. Mountains thread in Southeast is similar. Fewer people post in Mountains vs the general threads, keeping it to the point. Plus they are good.

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