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John1122

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Yes we are looking at the same CFS. Great thing about NOAA is everything is free. Only trouble is we get what we pay for, lol! Anyway, today the CFS is easing up on the blowtorch every so slightly.

13 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Crazy how cold the Weeklies are...I was really surprised.  Jeff, the CFS that I have access to updates like four times per day.  Is there a weekly update?  The ones I can see jump all over the place.   I will trust the Weeklies when I see more than one of those runs.  They have been trending cooler, but that was a deviation from the norm.

I'm almost certain we are seeing the same Euro weeklies even if using different subscriptions. I write week-by-week vs 45 days since daily errors (sometimes / pray hard) cancel out at the weekly level.

Differences between the CFS and Euro are likely MJO forecast related. Looking at the clusters, I see some doors opening for cold in our region by Thanksgiving. Weeks 3-6 cold clusters have the majority so the overall is slightly BN here. I really doubt 4 straight weeks are BN, but odds favor some stout cold fronts. One has to favor the Euro weeklies over the CFS.

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes we are looking at the same CFS. Great thing about NOAA is everything is free. Only trouble is we get what we pay for, lol! Anyway, today the CFS is easing up on the blowtorch every so slightly.

I'm almost certain we are seeing the same Euro weeklies even if using different subscriptions. I write week-by-week vs 45 days since daily errors (sometimes / pray hard) cancel out at the weekly level.

Differences between the CFS and Euro are likely MJO forecast related. Looking at the clusters, I see some doors opening for cold in our region by Thanksgiving. Weeks 3-6 cold clusters have the majority so the overall is slightly BN here. I really doubt 4 straight weeks are BN, but odds favor some stout cold fronts. One has to favor the Euro weeklies over the CFS.

Yeah, we are seeing the same Euro Weeklies.    I just wasn't sure if there was a different CFS product.  The one I look at is just all over the place, and I am not sure how to use it.  The Cansips is warm as well...the one that comes out at the beginning of each month.  Could be the most recent Euro Weeklies were just a blip.  Like I said, will pump the brakes until I see support from future runs.  It has been been cooling off a bit w each run it seems - so the trend is there.  But it went full tilt, cold w this one.  Some of its cold is not too far out there as it seems to transition in week 3.  I will add that  unless it updates slowly, I look at the Weeklies for each week,. I just don't post seven Weekly maps...figure I can get away w posting one bootleg map.  Time will tell.  Great thing about LR forecasting is that there are always surprises.

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Is the CFSv2 even that reliable?  Seems like it is iffy at best.  The EPS does have a similar look w near normal temps(off the top of my head) during days 10-15.  The GFS/GEFS combo seems to catch cold fronts better here recently.  When the EPS is normal at days 10-15, seems as if it verifies BN as it can be a bit warm at that range.  

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The 12z EPS also has AN heights over Greenland(days 10-15) that retrograde over the Davis Straights and into northeast Canada.  Let’s see if the Euro tries to bridge over to its Weeklies from last night.  Those Weeklies cold temps were almost close enough to be picked up by the medium range EPS.  Still, at this range it is like taking a shot about ten feet past the top of the key.  I do like the trends.  Time will tell.  I am wary of the Weeklies after their head fake last winter.  Still, when the Euro model shows cold...it can be very cold.  Hey, at least we have something to talk about.  Last winter and fall was awful.

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Re that 8-14 day chart, maybe they meant European ensembles. Still I can't see going nearly 50% chance AN. Maybe 33%. Personally I'm looking for a cold shift around Thanksgiving. 

Clarification: Thanksgiving cold might only last until the end of the month. I am not buying sustained yet, despite the Euro weeklies 5-6.

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7 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Re that 8-14 day chart, maybe they meant European ensembles. Still I can't see going nearly 50% chance AN. Maybe 33%. Personally I'm looking for a cold shift around Thanksgiving.

Jeff, when you talk about a cold shift coming around Thanksgiving, are you talking about cold that will be entrenched for a while, say at least 2 weeks, or something that is more transient in nature, say a week or less? 

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40 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Very encouraging if we can get some BN to maintain itself for the next couple of weeks. It may make for a warm up in December but it pays off in the heart of winter.

12z Euro looks similar.  Will wait to see the EPS and Weeklies.  The Monday Weeklies used the late Nov cold shot to reinforce the following weeks.  The Jamstec is reported to have flipped cold for Dec.  Euro seasonals look decent for Jan/Feb.  Just need to see some consistency over the next few runs to support recent trends.  GEFS has been banging this drum for a few days.

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24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z EPS is cold from d9-15.  Looks like a pretty big lake effect event for the folks in the normal spots of NY and PA.

  It sure is nice to have some promising signs of things to come.  We had a unique summer temperature wise, to say the least.  Hopefully that leads to  several nice surprises this winter.  

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Euro weeklies are on board with a cold Thanksgiving week. Surface cold is shown easing up the end of November. Upper charts still would allow occasional cold intrusions eastern Valley. Western third of our sub-forum, esp MEM, is closer to a milder regime in the Mid South. Overall it is a seasonably cool package. December jury is still out though.

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Here is the 46 day overall temp look.  There is a warm week or two in there meaning it is not this look for the entire 46 days.  The 500 pattern looks good w a ridge out West and trough in the East.  I will take seasonal to BN after last year.  I still wonder about the duration of the cold.  This winter has the feel of a 60/40 winter where 60% of the time it is warm and 40% it is cold...at times very cold.  I have noticed as well that when the Weeklies are seasonal to BN, that means some pretty cold air is in play as I have seen the Weeklies miss actual cold patterns due to a warm bias.  Last winter is a counter example to that where it incorrectly depicted cold in January that was like three days instead of three weeks worth.  Bristol has a 6" snow mean.  Knox has 3.  Chatt has 2.  Nash and Memphis are 1-2.  Even northern Alabama and Mississippi are 1-1.5.  Huge lake effect snow signal w a Miller B type pattern in play....lots of upslope for the mountain areas it would seem w cold air and a northwest flow.   Basically, two shots of cold.  One, as Jeff mentioned, around late Nov.  and the other a week or two later.  The cold lasts longer than last winter.  Should be a good test on how long the cold can hold this winter. 10x better than what we had to talk about last winter.  For those new to the forum, this model is meant to look at for generalities and to find clues.  It is not the gospel.

IMG_1079.PNG

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Looks like two stout cold fronts the rest of the month, this week and Thanksgiving week. Looks mild in between though.

On ‎11‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 7:11 PM, Ranger said:

Jeff, when you talk about a cold shift coming around Thanksgiving, are you talking about cold that will be entrenched for a while, say at least 2 weeks, or something that is more transient in nature, say a week or less? 

I would still call the fronts both transient by themselves, with a warm interlude. However we just might get two weekly periods to average BN.

Separately for the entire forum, I will not comment on Thanksgiving precipitation models until that week. I'm of course in default skeptic mode.

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12z EPS and 18z GFS had BN to seasonal temps.  Looks like fall or early winter.  If the winter reflects November, we need some cold.  Again, I like the 60/40 idea of 60% slightly AN temps w 40% cold for the winter w one or two extreme bouts of cold.  I will roll w normal snowfall for first to last flake whenever that is.  DJFMA.  The 12z Euro looked set to deliver major cold days 8-10 w an East based NAO.

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