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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Gert

85 posts in this topic

Not sure of the rules here so if it's too early, nuke the thread mods.

Much of the guidance has the latest wave to roll off of Africa developing over the next few days. Although conditions look favorable over the next few days, the longer term outlook is a bit more uncertain, with the GFS and others taking 99L northeast of the Leeward Islands while developing a strong system, and the European keeping the invest weaker and further south. Plenty of time to track...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the
eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  This system is forecast
to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along
with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for
development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by
early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  This system
could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba,
Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday.  For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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18 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

12z EPS keep 99L very weak. 

 

Looks like 90L gets most of the attention on this run. Plenty of time to watch this one. 

Thought of doing a separate thread for 90L, but given the split in guidance and time away from meaningful development I held off. 

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Upper level divergence looks pretty good on this invest near Cape Verde Islands. The GFS and Canadian really like this one, but the Euro really is still amplifying the Caribbean invest (near Venezuela region).

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Run after run of the GFS has 99L blossoming eventually. I don't think it means a whole lot right now, other than potentially illustrating that the best path for strengthening is not going to be found in the Caribbean. I'm still wary of the Caribbean's overall environment. 

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46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Run after run of the GFS has 99L blossoming eventually. I don't think it means a whole lot right now, other than potentially illustrating that the best path for strengthening is not going to be found in the Caribbean. I'm still wary of the Caribbean's overall environment. 

Gfs has this slamming into the SE coast

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has this slamming into the SE coast

It has had that, as well as an OTS and EC scrape today. I'm not really even looking at the upper level pattern right now for long range track. Once it starts getting closer to the islands, I'll start to perk up. IMO, a track in the Caribbean kills it, and a track too far NE of the Leeward Islands makes it more likely to be a fish storm. We're not even talking about the CONUS pattern, where we're currently unable to identify subtle features that could cause a recurve. 

6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

Haha, we shall see. 

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12z GFS is a big move towards the Euro. It also makes more sense. Enhances the odds of affecting land, but the environment doesn't seems conducive, plus the fact that there are big islands there that may tear the cyclone apart or disrupt any development.

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I suspect the tropics will remain dead for quite awhile. Nthing  but  bone dry air. Euro now has a  weak storm like the last  5 waddling into deep south mexico and  most  likely by tomorrow it will be dropped. 99L never was going to develop.

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I saw where CSU issued a 2 week forecast  indicating above normal tropical activity. Looks like that will bust. They overreacted to odd model runs. Models more realistic now with 99L doing nothing and 90L considerably further south and weaker.

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The Cape Verde to the Islands region has stunk the past several years, especially during August.  Almost everything that does form in that region dies from shear.  And when models do show a storm in this region, later runs back off on the intensity.  12Z Euro now shows a nothing.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This doesn't look like bone dry air basin wide to me. If they're far enough south, future waves should be ok. We're also heading into a downward trend in SAL, at least climatologically.

5B00E779-06D4-4F93-8AC7-C03128611BCB-247-000000068B458087.thumb.jpeg.b31084962171f4d9758d60b453d43616.jpeg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5new.html

Euro shows nothing so conditions cant be that favorable. GFS always shows phantom superstorms and now it just shows a very weak storm at best. I think we go till sept till we make a run at a cane somewhere.

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5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro shows nothing so conditions cant be that favorable. GFS always shows phantom superstorms and now it just shows a very weak storm at best. I think we go till sept till we make a run at a cane somewhere.

Oh wow one model doesnt develop the wave. Atlantic must be hostile since the EURO!!! doesn't develop a major cane. But hey, the Euro nailed Sandy so it cant be wrong. Right??!?!?

I'd be surprised if we don't get a system out of this. How strong and where it goes are still up for grabs, however the <930mb storm the GFS has had probably isnt happening, since the GFS has had a tendency to grossly overdeepen TCs recently.

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4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Oh wow one model doesnt develop the wave. Atlantic must be hostile since the EURO!!! doesn't develop a major cane. But hey, the Euro nailed Sandy so it cant be wrong. Right??!?!?

I'd be surprised if we don't get a system out of this. How strong and where it goes are still up for grabs, however the <930mb storm the GFS has had probably isnt happening, since the GFS has had a tendency to grossly overdeepen TCs recently.

GFS has headed quite a  bit to the euro and now shows a further south track and basically  nothing  of interest. If anything is going to develop over the next 10 days  it will be a typical dead season type storm in the subtropics.

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43 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro shows nothing so conditions cant be that favorable. GFS always shows phantom superstorms and now it just shows a very weak storm at best. I think we go till sept till we make a run at a cane somewhere.

 

37 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Oh wow one model doesnt develop the wave. Atlantic must be hostile since the EURO!!! doesn't develop a major cane. But hey, the Euro nailed Sandy so it cant be wrong. Right??!?!?

I'd be surprised if we don't get a system out of this. How strong and where it goes are still up for grabs, however the <930mb storm the GFS has had probably isnt happening, since the GFS has had a tendency to grossly overdeepen TCs recently.

 

31 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS has headed quite a  bit to the euro and now shows a further south track and basically  nothing  of interest. If anything is going to develop over the next 10 days  it will be a typical dead season type storm in the subtropics.

Couple things. First, the Euro is darn good. If we were in a high stakes situation and I needed to choose which model to hug, it'd be the Euro ten times out of ten. That said, it's not infallible. When I try to see if tropical cyclogenesis is a possibility, I like to look at what could go wrong. Just looking at the immediate environment (out to 72) the cons are:

1) Despite being a vigorous wave, it remains large and disorganized. This is a big negative factor IMO. For a wave this large and this far south, it looks like it's going to take time to organize. Euro's won that battle so far and that is a red flag. Until 99L organizes, it won't be able to build the type of inner core that would be at least somewhat resistant to a more hostile environment in the future. 

2) Dry air could become more of a problem as 99L moves WNW, but overall it looks to be far enough south of the latest SAL plume.

Aside from that, I like the immediate environment ahead. Solid SSTs (though TCHP isn't great), low shear progged through at least Monday, and maybe a moist environment to sustain convection. Now as it gets closer to the Islands I begin to have doubts. I've been of the opinion from the beginning that if it heads into the Caribbean it'll die, and if it stays north of the islands it'll be ok. Maybe not 970mb ok (though I wouldn't rule that out either) but that's a more favorable play in the longer range IMO. I post a lot about tropical, but until we have a well defined system this little more than a blip on my radar, and I take all the guidance with a grain of salt and watch for trends. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

Couple things. First, the Euro is darn good. If we were in a high stakes situation and I needed to choose which model to hug, it'd be the Euro ten times out of ten. That said, it's not infallible. When I try to see if tropical cyclogenesis is a possibility, I like to look at what could go wrong. Just looking at the immediate environment (out to 72) the cons are:

1) Despite being a vigorous wave, it remains large and disorganized. This is a big negative factor IMO. For a wave this large and this far south, it looks like it's going to take time to organize. Euro's won that battle so far and that is a red flag. Until 99L organizes, it won't be able to build the type of inner core that would be at least somewhat resistant to a more hostile environment in the future. 

2) Dry air could become more of a problem as 99L moves WNW, but overall it looks to be far enough south of the latest SAL plume.

Aside from that, I like the immediate environment ahead. Solid SSTs (though TCHP isn't great), low shear progged through at least Monday, and maybe a moist environment to sustain convection. Now as it gets closer to the Islands I begin to have doubts. I've been of the opinion from the beginning that if it heads into the Caribbean it'll die, and if it stays north of the islands it'll be ok. Maybe not 970mb ok (though I wouldn't rule that out either) but that's a more favorable play in the longer range IMO. I post a lot about tropical, but until we have a well defined system this little more than a blip on my radar, and I take all the guidance with a grain of salt and watch for trends. 

Yea the trade wind acceleration in the carribean(isn't it always like that this time of year though) is not exactly favorable for maintaining deep convection as seen with 90L's ongoing struggle, if 99L heads in there it will encounter the same issue and struggle to develop and maintain thundstorms.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z GEFS likes this threat

 

20597487_503174940027661_7732926142377588230_n.jpg

If the euro shows anything like that tonight then it needs to be watched. Personally  i think NHC should drop chances to 20% and only that high because things should get more active  now.

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The GEFS has been unanimously wrong on developing hurricanes several times in the last year, and have now backed off on 99L.   I would ignore them and side with the Euro in the future.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro does its best attempt to perform tropical CPR on 99L tonight. Interesting evolution.

Its back on the Euro 

lol

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