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August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread


Rtd208

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's been common recently. Plenty of mets have been complaining about it on twitter.

They made some type of change to better reflect the UHI effect, but it made it worthless imo...it's that way for nyc, don't know if the same problem exists elsewhere. When you run thru the 2m temp anomaly, it just shows constant above normal around the city and a good distance surrounding it, while all around is below normal.

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10 minutes ago, doncat said:

They made some type of change to better reflect the UHI effect, but it made it worthless imo...it's that way for nyc, don't know if the same problem exists elsewhere. When you run thru the 2m temp anomaly, it just shows constant above normal around the city and a good distance surrounding it, while all around is below normal.

Meteorologists from all across the country have reported the raw 2m warm bias. The MOS reduces it to some extent but can still run warm. I have mostly been using the NAM and Euro for temps. They are probably working on a patch or fix.

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15 minutes ago, Morris said:
 

That area has been an extreme rainfall and flooding hotspot since 2015.

https://spacecityweather.com/houston-wettest-months-record/

Houston just shattered its rainfall record for an 18-month period

This post summarizes the historically wet period from the spring of 2015 through the summer of 2016 for the greater Houston area. Not only did the region set a record for total rainfall, it also experienced an astounding six significant rainfall events in just a little more than 12 months. Read on for a full analysis.

Based upon data from the National Weather Service, the 18-month period from March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016, ranks as the wettest 18-month period on record for the city of Houston. In fact, the table below shows that each of the top-five wettest 18 month periods in Houston came during the last two years. Prior to 2015, Houston’s wettest consecutive 18 months had yielded a total of 106.68 inches. The March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016 period annihilated that record by more than a foot of rain, with a total of 119.77 inches.

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5 hours ago, Rjay said:

.26 at Wantagh last night 

 

Keeping with the can't crack a quarter inch. Either the rain gage is off (which i think is possible based on last weeks heavy rain event) or this area really is the desert of the region. I have put allot of thought into this and apparently pre development a sliver of the pine barrens extended along the south shore to Brooklyn. It's not a soil but rather rainfall issue. Soils in the wantagh area are more red clay then sand  as they are out in the pine barrens. Slightly off topic but an interesting thought as to why we just can't buy summer rain south of the SS on the island. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Meteorologists from all across the country have reported the raw 2m warm bias. The MOS reduces it to some extent but can still run warm. I have mostly been using the NAM and Euro for temps. They are probably working on a patch or fix.

GFS high 88 today it's 79 now at 2pm

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

That area has been an extreme rainfall and flooding hotspot since 2015.

https://spacecityweather.com/houston-wettest-months-record/

Houston just shattered its rainfall record for an 18-month period

This post summarizes the historically wet period from the spring of 2015 through the summer of 2016 for the greater Houston area. Not only did the region set a record for total rainfall, it also experienced an astounding six significant rainfall events in just a little more than 12 months. Read on for a full analysis.

Based upon data from the National Weather Service, the 18-month period from March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016, ranks as the wettest 18-month period on record for the city of Houston. In fact, the table below shows that each of the top-five wettest 18 month periods in Houston came during the last two years. Prior to 2015, Houston’s wettest consecutive 18 months had yielded a total of 106.68 inches. The March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016 period annihilated that record by more than a foot of rain, with a total of 119.77 inches.

May 2015 in Austin is probably the rainiest month I've ever seen, rivaling and probably exceeding Aug 2011 up here. I had over 20" of rain that month (May 2015), and drought turned to record flooding in the area. Halloween 2015 was also insane, there was over 5" of rain in an hour at Austin's airport and locally 17" for an event total. That was in association with a former hurricane from the Pacific (I think Patricia). 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

May 2015 in Austin is probably the rainiest month I've ever seen, rivaling and probably exceeding Aug 2011 up here. I had over 20" of rain that month (May 2015), and drought turned to record flooding in the area. Halloween 2015 was also insane, there was over 5" of rain in an hour at Austin's airport and locally 17" for an event total. That was in association with a former hurricane from the Pacific (I think Patricia). 

These extreme rainfall events are becoming more common. The Euro, GFS, and UKMET all stall Harvey somewhere over SE Texas. It will just come down to the exact location of the stall as to which areas get the highest totals and most severe flash flooding. The blocking to the N and NE of the storm is very impressive like we have seen numerous times recently.

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NYC is -0.1F and LGA is +0.1F. With the next days looking slightly below normal, 77/60 or so versus a mean of 74F, the stations should finish August with a small negative departure.

Summer looks to finish dead on normal with June and July around 0.5F anomaly. Low number of 90+ days and that looks pretty much done with a trough dominanting through September. Historically 90-degree potential closes around 9/15 (with exception like 1983 and 1944) so we are running out of time.

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