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August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread


Rtd208

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0607 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern PA...southern NY...northern NJ

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...

   Valid 222307Z - 230100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few storms may increase in intensity as they progress
   across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. Damaging winds, a
   brief/weak tornado, and marginal hail are all possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows continued pressure falls across
   eastern PA, ahead of the main line of storms. In addition, this
   corridor currently is near the instability axis, with MLCAPE around
   1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear remains favorable for long-lived severe
   storms, roughly 45-50 kt and at a large angle to the front. 0-1 km
   SRH also remains favorable for supercells and/or a brief tornado at
   over 100 M2/s2.

   Recent radar trends have shown some increase in cells ahead of the
   line, and if this trend persists, some of these cells may turn right
   and become supercells, with threat of a brief tornado, hail, and
   damaging wind.

mcd1557.gif

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Tornado Warning
PAC079-230030-
/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0014.170822T2359Z-170823T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
759 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 830 PM EDT

* At 758 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Sugar Notch, or near Wilkes-Barre, moving east at
  35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Edwardsville, Fairview Hgts and Penobscot around 805 PM EDT.
  Luzerne around 810 PM EDT.
  Wilkes-Barre, Bear Creek and Bear Creek Village around 815 PM EDT.
  Pittston around 820 PM EDT.
  Glendale around 825 PM EDT.
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Tornado Warning
NJC041-PAC089-095-230045-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0012.170823T0015Z-170823T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
815 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 845 PM EDT

* At 815 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Gilbert, or 14 miles south of Mount Pocono, moving
  east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Saylorsburg around 820 PM EDT.
  Bangor, Pen Argyl and Stormville around 830 PM EDT.
  East Bangor around 835 PM EDT.
  East Stroudsburg, Delaware Water Gap, Delaware Water Gap and
  Columbia around 840 PM EDT.
  Blairstown, Hope, Echo Lake and Werry Lake around 845 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Portland, Marshalls Creek, Arlington Heights, Roseto, Hidden Lake,
Merwinsburg, Stroudsburg, Effort, Bartonsville and Shawnee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

 

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The strong storm in Hunterdon County is on track to hit here, if it can hold together. The latest HRRR is suggesting it will, quite a difference from what model runs earlier today showed. We'll see.

Yep

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Mercer County in central New Jersey...
  Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 1030 PM EDT

* At 941 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Beatyestown to near Erwinna to near Green Lane,
  moving east at 40 mph. This line of storms has a history of
  producing wind damage in much of eastern Pennsylvania.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

 

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17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The strong storm in Hunterdon County is on track to hit here, if it can hold together. The latest HRRR is suggesting it will, quite a difference from what model runs earlier today showed. We'll see.

One thing to note - it is fairly typical for these storms to pulse up as they leave the Lehigh Valley in eastern PA and pass over the mountain ridges across western NJ.  There have been many times where I will get a storm here with some lightning and then the storm will fire up just to my east as it crosses the Delaware River and the lightning output increases dramatically.  The orographic influences on these types of events cannot be understated.

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