Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I'm not working that day I'll be down in the morning to surf low tide. My favorite beach event is hurricane wash overs at high tide. Unfortunately I'll be at my other job in the city for high.

For those that haven't experienced a beach wash over its when long period high energy swell causes a surging almost tsunami like wave. It crosses the beach to the dunes. Very cool to witness as they often lead to some bizzar eriosinal paterns and you can play around in them as it's summer. Obviously they happen during nor'easters but they aren't as much fun.

This is a pretty marginal setup for washovers. The stronger Gert gets the bigger and longer period the waves and the better chance it happens. Generally you want to see a cat 3 or higher within 750 miles or Cat one within 300 miles for it to happen. 

..winds will be offshore which will make the beaches very hot and it might be too rough

to get in the water..also with the NW wind, waves will be the crashing variety vrs the rolling type that 

come with a SW wind..NWS is

calling for swells to reach 7-8 feet..high surf advisory might be posted for wed.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

0.14"

I'll take it. Another day with measurable rain in what has been one of the wettest Summers I can recall here locally.

FYI we have greater chance of impact from the wave behind 91L.

.10 here and the 7th driest summer at ISP since the early 60's.

The 0z Euro and UKMET  recurves the wave behind 91L way out near Bermuda. The upgraded GFS has had the lowest skill score of the models like Forky posted last week. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

.10 here and the 7th driest summer at ISP since the early 60's.

The 0z Euro and UKMET  recurves the wave behind 91L way out near Bermuda. The upgraded GFS has had the lowest skill score of the models like Forky posted last week. 

Glad I don't live there.

In any event, it looks like if 91L develops it's going to take more of a Southern track, so I would give the wave behind it better odds at both development and being a threat to land.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Glad I don't live there.

In any event, it looks like if 91L develops it's going to take more of a Southern track, so I would give the wave behind it better odds at both development and being a threat to land.

Well..the EURO, UKMET, and even CMC recurve it OTS to our east. Notice only the GFS has been showing a further west track. After the upgrade, it's skill dropped way off like Forky posted last week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Well..the EURO, UKMET, and even CMC recurve it OTS to our east. Notice only the GFS has been showing a further west track. After the upgrade, it's skill dropped way off like Forky posted last week.

I'm not putting much stock in the track forecast this far out, although odds always favor re curve for a CV storm. I like the general idea that 91L becomes the "sacrificial lamb" and helps to moisten the atmosphere for the wave coming behind it. Shear also looks pretty awful along the future track of 91L and it looks like dry air has been increasing just to the Northeast, so again I think the wave behind it will have better odds.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not putting much stock in the track forecast this far out, although odds always favor re curve for a CV storm. I like the general idea that 91L becomes the "sacrificial lamb" and helps to moisten the atmosphere for the wave coming behind it. Shear also looks pretty awful along the future track of 91L and it looks like dry air has been increasing just to the Northeast, so again I think the wave behind it will have better odds.

 

All the ensembles weaken the STR over the Western Atlantic next week so any storm in the region will we a fish storm like Gert is.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bluewave said:

All the ensembles weaken the STR over the Western Atlantic next week so any storm in the region will we a fish storm like Gert is.

 

Well if 91L can get its act together like some of the modeling shows, the conditions in most of the Caribbean are favorable.

91L_tracks_latest.png

91L_intensity_latest.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0.15 overnight. Which is basically nothing.

I've been seeing water trucks irrigating the plant installations along NY-347 in Suffolk every other morning, not nearly enough rain these past couple of summers to help establish the new plantings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warmest spots will have a few chances to hit 90 in the next week. The forecast calls for upper 80s tomorrow, so I could definitely see EWR hitting 90. 

However NAO to turn even more negative as we end August, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a very potent early fall-like front somewhere in late August to early September.

I know LR CFS hinted towards this a few days ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warmest spots will have a few chances to hit 90 in the next week. The forecast calls for upper 80s tomorrow, so I could definitely see EWR hitting 90. 

However NAO to turn even more negative as we end August, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a very potent early fall-like front somewhere in late August to early September.

I know LR CFS hinted towards this a few days ago. 

Upton's going low 90s for EWR tomorrow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

.10 here and the 7th driest summer at ISP since the early 60's.

The 0z Euro and UKMET  recurves the wave behind 91L way out near Bermuda. The upgraded GFS has had the lowest skill score of the models like Forky posted last week. 

0.49 here overnight. Must have been a heavier band to your north. 1.56 so far in August. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z GFS is back to developing 91L into Franklin, if correct the center would pass near St Lucia on Friday as a weak TS before entering the Eastern Caribbean. Most of the shear and dry air are further to the North, so that would be a great opportunity, especially considering how most of the warm waters of the Central and Eastern Caribbean have been untouched.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warmest spots will have a few chances to hit 90 in the next week. The forecast calls for upper 80s tomorrow, so I could definitely see EWR hitting 90. 

However NAO to turn even more negative as we end August, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a very potent early fall-like front somewhere in late August to early September.

I know LR CFS hinted towards this a few days ago. 

With the downslope flow tomorrow, parts of Long Island may make it to upper 80's to around 90. But it looks short-lived as the flow becomes more onshore thursday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...