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August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread


Rtd208

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No 90's showing up for at least the next week to 10 days. The Euro also has very little rain across the area with 5.0" to our south over Delaware. The 2010's continue to be the king of stuck or stagnant weather patterns. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_1.thumb.png.4edb3b5c6c369340fcd480e5150de78b.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.91ad30601f4d9d524e8d3c2d2af07b55.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No 90's showing up for at least the next week to 10 days. The Euro also has very little rain across the area with 5.0" to our south over Delaware. The 2010's continue to be the king of stuck or stagnant weather patterns. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_1.thumb.png.4edb3b5c6c369340fcd480e5150de78b.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.91ad30601f4d9d524e8d3c2d2af07b55.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sweet

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3 minutes ago, Morris said:

Sweet

Areas just to our south over the MA continue to be the focus of the heavy rains. Euro develops a PRE for the Delmarva and SNJ with a recurving tropical system to our SE. This summer is like the rainfall version of 2-6-10 over and over again.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_neng_41.png.c6ec6f58ae040248dc1908e6b8c48c7b.png

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas just to our south over the MA continue to be the focus of the heavy rains. Euro develops a PRE for the Delmarva and SNJ with a recurving tropical system to our SE. This summer is like the rainfall version of 2-6-10 over and over again.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_neng_41.png.c6ec6f58ae040248dc1908e6b8c48c7b.png

 

 

 

At least we have average precipitation, which is good.

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16 hours ago, Cfa said:

I'm not saying this summer was the greatest, but it's a far cry from 2009, even 2014 felt cooler to me. But at this point, the average temp has fallen only a single degree from summer's peak. We're still in the "late January" of summer. :blink:

No one would declare winter dead at the end of January because of a few 60-70 degree days, but with temps and snowfall near average. Many refuse to let go of the fantasy range storms until they're physically impossible or there aren't any to track.

I'm just trying to be realistic, summer dead in early August? I don't think so, it's too soon to know how it'll end. Just like "spring" arrived in the second half of February, and then March happened.

I agree it is nothing like 2009. I wouldn't be shocked to have a very warm Sept, I've seen some long range projections for an above norm fall for most of the US.

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No 90's showing up for at least the next week to 10 days. The Euro also has very little rain across the area with 5.0" to our south over Delaware. The 2010's continue to be the king of stuck or stagnant weather patterns. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_1.thumb.png.4edb3b5c6c369340fcd480e5150de78b.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.91ad30601f4d9d524e8d3c2d2af07b55.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not shocked to see this, maybe it will have the heavy precipitation to far south for once, wishful thinking. Hope this changes soon since I would like to see a good heavy precipitation event up here especially as we start heading into the fall and winter months.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it fits the pattern. Interesting to see how well the EPS does with 99L. It's currently a PRE just to our south with some big swells for the surfers.

 

DGqPrBiXcAEKbin.jpg-small.jpg.3e86930e7477f597e2a613f69311016a.jpg

 

Its amazing how S NJ/Philly area have cashed in on the severe weather/heavy rain events while we have nickel and dimed our way through the summer with mostly 0.25-0.75 type of rain events. I am getting really frustrated on hearing the term "just to our south" when it comes to these type of events.

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16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Its amazing how S NJ/Philly area have cashed in on the severe weather/heavy rain events while we have nickel and dimed our way through the summer with mostly 0.25-0.75 type of rain events. I am getting really frustrated on hearing the term "just to our south" when it comes to these type of events.

It's the same theme of weather patterns getting stuck in place for extended periods of time. We are currently stuck in a very tame pattern without much in the way of heat, severe, or major floods. It's anyones guess how long this phase lasts before we get back to more extreme types of weather.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It's the same theme of weather patterns getting stuck in place for extended periods of time. We are currently stuck in a very tame pattern without much in the way of heat, severe, or major floods. It's anyones guess how long this phase lasts before we get back to more extreme types of weather.

We cant necessarily say it hasn't been active they have just been light events at least for our area locally. Hoping the pattern changes very soon, like yesterday. 

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16 hours ago, uncle W said:

there hasn't been any temps as low as the 50's in NYC since June...we had many a record low during the summers growing up in the 1960's...between cool summers we got 1966...it had three heat waves that peaked over 100 degrees...August 1962-63-64-65 had very cool record lows...1964 broke a record set in 1963...the first half of August 1964 is one of the coolest on record...

aug 62 63 64 65.png

1966 remained the hottest on record, however, until 2010.

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19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

We cant necessarily say it hasn't been active they have just been light events at least for our area locally. Hoping the pattern changes very soon, like yesterday. 

Plenty of days with clouds or rain on long Island with very little total rainfall to show for it.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Its amazing how S NJ/Philly area have cashed in on the severe weather/heavy rain events while we have nickel and dimed our way through the summer with mostly 0.25-0.75 type of rain events. I am getting really frustrated on hearing the term "just to our south" when it comes to these type of events.

Welcome to my winters 2009-2016...

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

I agree it is nothing like 2009. I wouldn't be shocked to have a very warm Sept, I've seen some long range projections for an above norm fall for most of the US.

LR forecasts will always show AN temps nowadays, so that doesn't help. It's already been made clear that our averages do not reflect the warming that has gone on well.

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19 hours ago, dWave said:

That's true, but its more than just the avgs but how we got there. Too many "cool" breaks in the summer heat to really give that steady summer feel. Seems like we get some short burst of hot to very hot days to run up the numbers then spend most of the time chipping away at that departure, remaining just mild enough to end up around average.  If we arrived at that same average with few fewer 90s but more uninterrupted run of sunny/mid 80s+ it would give a different impression.

This sums it up well.  Just quoting the average isn't sufficient for the kind of summer it's been. Many dreary, cooler days while clouds kept the mins up which edges the average up.

Any data on just the average high for each month against the actual average so far?  I think this would tell a different story.

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

I agree it is nothing like 2009. I wouldn't be shocked to have a very warm Sept, I've seen some long range projections for an above norm fall for most of the US.

That's not a hard call an above normal fall, in reality it will be normal for the last 10 years or so.

 

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1 minute ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

The Poconos and endless mountains region have done quite well during that period.

not correct.   Bluewave put up a  thread comparing Scranton to Islip and showed how Islip has done much better in the snow dept when compared to normal...while Scranton has suffered...blocking has favored the coast for the big snows.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

not correct.   Bluewave put up a  thread comparing Scranton to Islip and showed how Islip has done much better in the snow dept when compared to normal...while Scranton has suffered...blocking has favored the coast for the big snows.

2015-16 for example....NYC and LI had the huge blizzard so they wound up with 40" for the season...AVP-BGM OTOH had one of the least snowiest winters ever.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

not correct.   Bluewave put up a  thread comparing Scranton to Islip and showed how Islip has done much better in the snow dept when compared to normal...while Scranton has suffered...blocking has favored the coast for the big snows.

I'm talking north of Scranton. I agree, elevation has something to do with it...areas over 1000 or 1200 ft do much better. In relation to normal the coast has lucked out.

1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

2015-16 for example....NYC and LI had the huge blizzard so they wound up with 40" for the season...AVP-BGM OTOH had one of the least snowiest winters ever.

My area had less than 30 inches and people have told me that is one of the lowest totals ever. The 2 previous years we did well, but less than average the previous 2 winters.

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