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snywx

Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018

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6 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Snow mentioned for tonight in my P&C. Heavy heavy prozac. 

I saw flakes a few times between here and Poughkeepsie tonight and right around sunset it sure looked like the Catskills High Peaks area was getting it good when I came over the Taconic Crest on 84. I know it was coming down hard up in the Daks and central/northern Greens this afternoon.

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

4/30 now goes into my records as the latest date for snowflakes flying through the air.

I'm genuinely amazed at how cold it is with the wind.  The next few days are well, well needed.

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I'm sitting right at the trailing edge of what's left of the storm. To my east is a bank of dark clouds muting the sunrise and to my west is crystal clear. The banding in the clouds is textbook perfect and the color spectrum is too. I love when you can really see a storms structure like this.

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How warm did we get today? I saw high 80's on a couple of bank thermo's and 91 in my car. I went for a mt bike ride and it sure didn't seem that warm but it was really dry so that helps it to feel a bit cooler. Boy the woods dried out in a hurry with these couple of dry days. Soil moisture seems to be holding up well 1" down but the surface is crackly and dusty already.

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15 hours ago, gravitylover said:

How warm did we get today? I saw high 80's on a couple of bank thermo's and 91 in my car. I went for a mt bike ride and it sure didn't seem that warm but it was really dry so that helps it to feel a bit cooler. Boy the woods dried out in a hurry with these couple of dry days. Soil moisture seems to be holding up well 1" down but the surface is crackly and dusty already.

Yeah I don't understand how things dry out so quickly. Two days ago the yard was a mud pit... today I mowed and kicked up billowing clouds of dust for four hours straight. Mouth, lungs, and eyes just filled with dirt and grit. You'd have thought it was August 20th or something.

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7 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

As a side note, still finding more snapped trees from the March snowstorms in far-flung corners of the property.

 

How big is your place that you're just seeing these things now and it takes you 4 hours to mow?

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

How big is your place that you're just seeing these things now and it takes you 4 hours to mow?

About 12 acres. Most of it goes unused which is why things can remain out of sight for a while, and the steep slope/maze of trees makes the mowing more time-intensive than it should be. 

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10 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

About 12 acres. Most of it goes unused which is why things can remain out of sight for a while, and the steep slope/maze of trees makes the mowing more time-intensive than it should be. 

Nice. My hope for our next place when we finally get to move out of this suburban ick is to have a few acres that backs up to 'never to be developed' forest of some sort. I want to be able to ride my bike out the door and not have to be concerned with nosy neighbors with nothing better to do than whine about what I do or don't do. I also want to be able to have enough room to have my own playground right outside the door and an open hillside is part of that plan, if there's a couple of hundred vertical feet of north facing wooded hillside to ski on that would be a best case scenario. Yup, never get old :) 

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37 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Nice. My hope for our next place when we finally get to move out of this suburban ick is to have a few acres that backs up to 'never to be developed' forest of some sort. I want to be able to ride my bike out the door and not have to be concerned with nosy neighbors with nothing better to do than whine about what I do or don't do. I also want to be able to have enough room to have my own playground right outside the door and an open hillside is part of that plan, if there's a couple of hundred vertical feet of north facing wooded hillside to ski on that would be a best case scenario. Yup, never get old :) 

Yeah, bolded is key. My place backs up to a sprawling cemetery on one side and wetlands on the other, both of which are pretty much kisses of death for any development prospects. Sometimes when I'm really bored I'll peruse landandfarm.com and check out the 200,000+ acre ranches for sale out west. You could have entire rivers and mountains all to yourself. How cool would that be?

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Yeah right? That cemetery is some nice quiet neighbors but is the wetlands a mosquito factory? 

What are the chances that big line of storms crossing I81 now falls apart before getting here? 

 

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43 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah right? That cemetery is some nice quiet neighbors but is the wetlands a mosquito factory? 

What are the chances that big line of storms crossing I81 now falls apart before getting here?

Tons of bats and barn swallows keep the skeeters nicely under control. Around dusk on a humid night, you'll see them circling the pond by the dozens partaking of the buffet

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I could use some help here. I am trying to find out on which dates we had accumulating snow this season and if possible how much snow actually fell ? Is there a website or link to tell me how much snow fell during these individual events in Rockland county or in my particular area in Rockland County ? Thanks for any help

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On 5/6/2018 at 2:13 PM, Brasiluvsnow said:

I could use some help here. I am trying to find out on which dates we had accumulating snow this season and if possible how much snow actually fell ? Is there a website or link to tell me how much snow fell during these individual events in Rockland county or in my particular area in Rockland County ? Thanks for any help

Go to this site: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/, use station ID "NYRL0005", and select "daily data for a month" under the single-station tab. That CoCoRaHS observer is the only current source of snowfall records in Rockland that I'm aware of, but the data looks pretty solid.

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Go to this site: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/, use station ID "NYRL0005", and select "daily data for a month" under the single-station tab. That CoCoRaHS observer is the only current source of snowfall records in Rockland that I'm aware of, but the data looks pretty solid.

Thanks Julian ,appreciated

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I have a whole schedule in the works of outdoor events where I'm selling my photo prints (beginning with this Saturday), so congrats all on the lush lawns and full wells this summer.

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18 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I have a whole schedule in the works of outdoor events where I'm selling my photo prints (beginning with this Saturday), so congrats all on the lush lawns and full wells this summer.

Its a chore just trying to fit in my outdoor chores lately.  Do you see your prints online?

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1 hour ago, HailMan06 said:

For the first time in awhile we're in the epicenter of a significant severe weather threat. Let's do this!

A section of Upton's AFD, Keep an eye out for descrete cells in front of the advancing lines.

Over northern portions of NE NJ, most of the Lower Hudson
Valley, interior portions of SW CT and NW Middlesex County -
this area should see the highest CAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) and is
under the core of the low level theta-e ridge axis and the EML
(700-500 hPa lapse rates around 8C), so has been placed under an
Elevated Risk for Severe Thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC). With slightly lower CAPE, and some marine
influence,NYC, the remainder of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE
NJ, coastal SW CT, most of interior SE CT and Nassau County and
portions of NW Suffolk County are under a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms. The remainder of the area, with the potential for
severe storms to sustain themselves into the area (except for
the S fork of Long Island) is under a Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms.

Across the Enhanced Risk area, Bulk Richardson numbers are 15 to
25 indicating the potential for isolated supercells ahead of the
main line of storms. Given high Energy Helicity Indices and
Significant Tornado Parameter (both greater than 1) there is
the potential for isolated tornadoes, especially in any isolated
supercells that form ahead of the main squall line.
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Feel like these events always bust around here and we get the better severe days when it is unexpected. But we never seem to have an EML in our favor, so hopefully we can cash in.

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7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

A section of Upton's AFD, Keep an eye out for descrete cells in front of the advancing lines.


 

We've seen setups like this before, where folks keep focusing on the main line of storms not realizing its the discrete cells where the most action is. 

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14 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

A section of Upton's AFD, Keep an eye out for descrete cells in front of the advancing lines.

Over northern portions of NE NJ, most of the Lower Hudson
Valley, interior portions of SW CT and NW Middlesex County -
this area should see the highest CAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) and is
under the core of the low level theta-e ridge axis and the EML
(700-500 hPa lapse rates around 8C), so has been placed under an
Elevated Risk for Severe Thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction
Center (SPC). With slightly lower CAPE, and some marine
influence,NYC, the remainder of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE
NJ, coastal SW CT, most of interior SE CT and Nassau County and
portions of NW Suffolk County are under a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms. The remainder of the area, with the potential for
severe storms to sustain themselves into the area (except for
the S fork of Long Island) is under a Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms.

Across the Enhanced Risk area, Bulk Richardson numbers are 15 to
25 indicating the potential for isolated supercells ahead of the
main line of storms. Given high Energy Helicity Indices and
Significant Tornado Parameter (both greater than 1) there is
the potential for isolated tornadoes, especially in any isolated
supercells that form ahead of the main squall line.

SPC mentions the possibility of this becoming a derecho.

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

We've seen setups like this before, where folks keep focusing on the main line of storms not realizing its the discrete cells where the most action is. 

Yup that's where the meat and potatoes are. SPC expanded the enhanced risk.  They also mention a possibility of a few winds around hurricane force.

Northeast...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop and grow upscale from midday
   through afternoon, sweeping eastward across the region with the main
   risk being severe wind.  The potential for a well-organized swath of
   damaging wind -- including a few gusts around hurricane force --
   appears greatest over the enhanced-risk area.  Large hail also is
   possible, especially in the first few hours of the convective cycle
   when storm modes can be more favorably discrete or semi-discrete.  A
   few tornadoes also may occur, whether from supercells or
   QLCS-embedded vortices.

 

 

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