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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018


snywx
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1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Animal I am in New City 20 -25 minutes north of the GW . Some of US love the snow and then there is THEM who hate it lol ---I remember you said you were moving I hope that went well. Im just rolling outta bed and its snowing here,,,lets look at models ,,,enjoy the day

My wife was requested to stay at her current position until April until they backfill her role at the hospital. As I am a home daddy, my wife agreed for the sake of keeping healthy relationships.

still in the area 3 weeks a month 

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0.8" today which gets me over the 1' mark YTD and just an inch shy of tying my snowiest December since 2010.

Despite the torchy start and aspiring Grinch rainstorm on the 23rd, this has been a really nice winter month. I give it a solid A for lots of little snow events, persistent snowcover, deep cold the final week including multiple subzero lows, and the holy grail, Christmas Day snowfall. If January is as cold and snowy relative to normal as December was, strap in. 

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11 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

0.8" today which gets me over the 1' mark YTD and just an inch shy of tying my snowiest December since 2010.

Despite the torchy start and aspiring Grinch rainstorm on the 23rd, this has been a really nice winter month. I give it a solid A for lots of little snow events, persistent snowcover, deep cold the final week including multiple subzero lows, and the holy grail, Christmas Day snowfall. If January is as cold and snowy relative to normal as December was, strap in. 

Just need some more SWFEs as coastals in this pattern favor New England.  Yes, it has been a nice winter stretch with a few small snow events and deep cold.  I would prefer bigger snow with less cold and hoping January can deliver that. 

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11 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

0.8" today which gets me over the 1' mark YTD and just an inch shy of tying my snowiest December since 2010.

Despite the torchy start and aspiring Grinch rainstorm on the 23rd, this has been a really nice winter month. I give it a solid A for lots of little snow events, persistent snowcover, deep cold the final week including multiple subzero lows, and the holy grail, Christmas Day snowfall. If January is as cold and snowy relative to normal as December was, strap in. 

Yeah, a solid December for the first time in a while. Decent amount of days with snow on the ground, 10.7” for the month which is 1.7” above average IMBY with temps close to 2 degrees below normal here. 

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

And if I had a nickel for every time I’ve read “the <insert model of choice here> is going to be west and looks better”...I’d have at least 50 cents LOL

"Yeah well the result may be the same but there was definitely an improvement at 275 mb over the Ukraine, watch that for 18z"

-12 was my low, deep deep winter. The snow OTG is doing its job but I'm getting greedy - let's fatten up the pack this week and get me a -20F 

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The floor is real low for this in the HV but I remain optimistic for something more significant. While this may be stating the obvious, I like the potential for a nice deform band on the far NW side. The 12z NAM shows a distinct CCB feature over our heads (see 700mb prog), and if you loop the frontogenesis product, you can see a thermal boundary with respectable UVVs pivoting just to our south and east for several hours on Thursday afternoon. The mesoscale models will pick up on these features better than the globals, but QPF will still tend to under-represent peripheral banding when the dynamics are so incredibly strong near the low center. Plus, temp and wind profiles are more conducive to snow growth here than in areas with more liquid, so the gradient may not be as sharp as depicted.

It's a tough forecast. I think the odds of a total non-event and widespread 4-6"+ amounts are roughly equal around these parts.

9vpFcIG.png

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19 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The floor is real low for this in the HV but I remain optimistic for something more significant. While this may be stating the obvious, I like the potential for a nice deform band on the far NW side. The 12z NAM shows a distinct CCB feature over our heads (see 700mb prog), and if you loop the frontogenesis product, you can see a thermal boundary with respectable UVVs pivoting just to our south and east for several hours on Thursday afternoon. The mesoscale models will pick up on these features better than the globals, but QPF will still tend to under-represent peripheral banding when the dynamics are so incredibly strong near the low center. Plus, temp and wind profiles are more conducive to snow growth here than in areas with more liquid, so the gradient may not be as sharp as depicted.

It's a tough forecast. I think the odds of a total non-event and widespread 4-6"+ amounts are roughly equal around these parts.

9vpFcIG.png

Awesome analysis man, that is fantastic.  Some westward trends today, though still not a big consensus.  Yes, I think mesos will be the ones to pay more attention to moving forward.  

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The 00z GFS would be a nice snowstorm for us. It dampened out the arctic trough a bit so we wouldn't be able to rely on that for a safe 1-3", but compensates by bringing the deep cyclone and associated ML dynamics closer. Albany notes the potential for average ratios as high as 25:1... I never count on ratios 2x better than climo, especially with the wind potential, but it wouldn't shock me to see periods of 30:1 around here at the height of the storm.

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Here's the concern if the low gets tucked in like the 3km NAM shows and we end up in the sucker hole of subsidence from the main banding as it peaks to our SE. Positive omega through a shallow DGZ. It's obviously still snowing and possibly quite prodigiously, but no comically high ratios to raise the event ceiling indefinitely.

jSE3IGy.png

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8 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The 00z GFS would be a nice snowstorm for us. It dampened out the arctic trough a bit so we wouldn't be able to rely on that for a safe 1-3", but compensates by bringing the deep cyclone and associated ML dynamics closer. Albany notes the potential for average ratios as high as 25:1... I never count on ratios 2x better than climo, especially with the wind potential, but it wouldn't shock me to see periods of 30:1 around here at the height of the storm.

Yeah wind fractured flakes are a serious hindrance to those high ratios. Even in calm periods here at the surface it's still a maelstrom upstairs and the flakes get beat up. 

45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Oh how those of us on the western side hope that the 6z Nam is sniffing out a late trend. 

Nope nothing for you :ee:  You get snowmaking from the park and a wall of clouds to your east :yikes:

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8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah wind fractured flakes are a serious hindrance to those high ratios. Even in calm periods here at the surface it's still a maelstrom upstairs and the flakes get beat up. 

Nope nothing for you :ee:  You get snowmaking from the park and a wall of clouds to your east :yikes:

I’m used to that!  Thankfully this season the guns are literally making tons of snow each day. 

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3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Everyone ready for the virga storm? 

No freaking way. This will over perform for sure. The structure of this storm is beautiful and it's gonna bang a damn coastal front right into I95. Western Orange may only get a couple of inches but the closer you get to the river this will be a decent storm. I am going 4-7 here with ratios and starting a few hrs earlier than current thinking as precip is blossoming up that coastal front setting up just offshore 

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  • IrishRob17 changed the title to Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018

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