gravitylover Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, Juliancolton said: Hey that seems pretty rare, I wonder how often that happens... It's been mood flakes on and off here all morning. From about the Dover/Pawling line north it's more common than further south at this point in the season, along the Taconic spine that line seems to be somewhere around Rt 55. It's like the high country in that area gobbles up the last of it and it transitions to more of a coastal influence until things get truly cold and continental air overwhelms and the offshore waters cool down to the low 40's then the line moves down into north central Westchester/Fairfield counties from about Mt Kisco across to Wilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 @White Gorilla 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: @White Gorilla As is tradition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 46 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: As is tradition. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Back at it.. early start to what looks to be a long winter. N of 84 looks to do well. If that ULL Does it’s magic fri morning look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 The frigid air mass but warm ground is going to create quite the disparity between deck/grill/car/patio table measurements and those taken on a board properly married to the earth. I can't wait for the PNS to look something like this... NEW WINDSOR...11.0"...PUBLIC NEWBURGH.......8.0"...FACEBOOK 2 W NEWBURGH...8.0"...FACEBOOK CORNWALL.......6.0"...SOCIAL MEDIA 1 N NEWBURGH...2.4"...TRAINED SPOTTER 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The frigid air mass but warm ground is going to create quite the disparity between deck/grill/car/patio table measurements and those taken on a board properly married to the earth. I can't wait for the PNS to look something like this... NEW WINDSOR...11.0"...PUBLIC NEWBURGH.......8.0"...FACEBOOK 2 W NEWBURGH...8.0"...FACEBOOK CORNWALL.......6.0"...SOCIAL MEDIA 1 N NEWBURGH...2.4"...TRAINED SPOTTER Will the “eye balling” measurements be affected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Will the “eye balling” measurements be affected? The sun going supernova wouldn't affect the eyeball measurements. Maybe the eyeballs, but not the measurements. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: The frigid air mass but warm ground is going to create quite the disparity between deck/grill/car/patio table measurements and those taken on a board properly married to the earth. I can't wait for the PNS to look something like this... NEW WINDSOR...11.0"...PUBLIC NEWBURGH.......8.0"...FACEBOOK 2 W NEWBURGH...8.0"...FACEBOOK CORNWALL.......6.0"...SOCIAL MEDIA 1 N NEWBURGH...2.4"...TRAINED SPOTTER This is why you dont mow too short before winter. Shove the ruler down and measure to the tops of the snow sticking on the longest blades of grass. 4” minimum here tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Back again for another winter fellas, may the snow gods be with us. Currently 25/18. If all goes well a foot would not be out of the question. Depends on how fast mid layers warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 There will be a burst of blinding snowfall rates early tomorrow evening at the nose of the WAA, but it's gonna be cruising through at break-neck speeds, then we sleet for a brief time before the dryslot moves in around midnight and graces us with drizzle for the rest of the night. We probably have 3 to 4 hours in which to amass most of our snow, at least at the front-end - it's a toss-up as to whether the band pivots back through after sunup with anything substantial. Call it 2-5" with preference for the low end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 7 hours ago, BxEngine said: This is why you dont mow too short before winter. Shove the ruler down and measure to the tops of the snow sticking on the longest blades of grass. 4” minimum here tomorrow. I didn't get a chance to mow once the leaves started coming down and the grass was already a few inches at that point. I'm looking at 6" at least 6 hours ago, Juliancolton said: There will be a burst of blinding snowfall rates early tomorrow evening at the nose of the WAA, but it's gonna be cruising through at break-neck speeds, then we sleet for a brief time before the dryslot moves in around midnight and graces us with drizzle for the rest of the night. We probably have 3 to 4 hours in which to amass most of our snow, at least at the front-end - it's a toss-up as to whether the band pivots back through after sunup with anything substantial. Call it 2-5" with preference for the low end? What are you thinking for start time? I'm going to be east of you in CT around lunchtime then have to head down to Newtown and Danbury mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: I didn't get a chance to mow once the leaves started coming down and the grass was already a few inches at that point. I'm looking at 6" at least What are you thinking for start time? I'm going to be east of you in CT around lunchtime then have to head down to Newtown and Danbury mid afternoon. I've been thinking 5 pm here, so maybe an hour earlier in Fairfield? The mesos seem in pretty good agreement that the column is saturated and primed along the 84 corridor by 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I've been thinking 5 pm here, so maybe an hour earlier in Fairfield? The mesos seem in pretty good agreement that the column is saturated and primed along the 84 corridor by 22z It'll be earlier IMO. Probably 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Thanks guys. It definitely has the feel and look ahead of a snowstorm out there now. Boy the turn from late summer to fall to winter was too quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: It'll be earlier IMO. Probably 2-3 For where? Here's 2 pm for my location on the HRRR, which seems to have a good handle vs. current obs regionally. Doesn't exactly scream off to the races... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 58 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: For where? Here's 2 pm for my location on the HRRR, which seems to have a good handle vs. current obs regionally. Doesn't exactly scream off to the races... currently 27/16 here. That dewpt. is still a little low. I'm thinking late afternoon here for a start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: currently 27/16 here. That dewpt. is still a little low. I'm thinking late afternoon here for a start time. Yeah havent looked at soundings in awhile, kids science fair is being packed into an early dismissal day now but for down here it looked like around 1 or 2 we’d stsrt saturating the entire column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just to illustrate my point about the brevity of accumulating snow (ignoring any .3"/hr stuff in the very beginning and the chance at a heavy squall with the decaying wraparound band tomorrow), here's the mid-level convergence zone at 00z and 03z tonight, per NAM. While really impressive looking and sure to bungle up commutes the region over, the band will have taken about three hours to visit everyone in this thread before marching off to its pivot point over Lake Placid. I know this all sounds inherently whiny, which isn't my goal at all... I'm thrilled about the potential for advisory criteria snows less than two weeks after peak foliage. But if there were ever a time to completely toss the clown maps... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 Impressive event unfolding.. 22° w/ S+ Its Nov freakin 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, snywx said: Impressive event unfolding.. 22° w/ S+ Its Nov freakin 15th Had a quick inch down in 30 minn. also Dewpt. went from 19 to 22 in the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I went from 1” to 2” in well under an hour, that was impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I went from 1” to 2” in well under an hour, that was impressive. This will be a traffic nightmare . Snowfall at this rate will accumulate on all road surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: This will be a traffic nightmare . Snowfall at this rate will accumulate on all road surfaces Everything that has a hill down here is closed in one spot or another. Palisades, 9w, 59, all have sections closed. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Yeah, it's a total disaster on the roads, but otherwise awesome. Warms the cockles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4" OTG in 2 hours. Still Sn+. 26/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 39 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: This will be a traffic nightmare . Snowfall at this rate will accumulate on all road surfaces closing in on 6 inches down this way with no salting or plows all the roads are like parking lots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 What a disaster on the roads. I’m parked at a QuickChek because I can’t get to the little lady’s place of employment less than a mile away due to stuck and stranded cars. No clue when I’ll be able to get to her let alone home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: What a disaster on the roads. I’m parked at a QuickChek because I can’t get to the little lady’s place of employment less than a mile away due to stuck and stranded cars. No clue when I’ll be able to get to her let alone home. Oh, and I’m supposed to drive to Long Island in the morning for a wedding, joy. Odds are increasing that the church will be skipped and thankfully there’s a shuttle between the recess down the hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Oh, and I’m supposed to drive to Long Island in the morning for a wedding, joy. Odds are increasing that the church will be skipped and thankfully there’s a shuttle between the recess down the hotel. Im headed to work in the morning. If my wife was off today i would have just went in today and spent the night there. Im sure the main roads will be fine by 5 am but this isnt a good start lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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