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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018


snywx
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Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course.

On the vis loop it appears to be closer to the number coast that the pressure drops are showing

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6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Radar looks fine to me. This thing is bombing out (just check out the gravity waves and rapidly cooling cloud tops on IR sat) and there's hasn't been a model in days that had meaningful snow from the coastal low starting before 1 pm. SPC mesoanalysis has a closed 700mb isohypse well inland over southern NJ. Stay the course.

Will try to keep the faith, and patience 

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3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

On the vis loop it appears to be closer to the number coast that the pressure drops are showing

It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here.

As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood.

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5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here.

As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood.

Agree, and if we do get into those heavy snow rates, it will put some trees and limbs in stress.

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10 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's an elongated trough-like thing right now, so it's sort of subjective to pinpoint where the low is. The circulation is a little offset to the west of the lowest pressures, like you say. The big band is still surging north... I think it'll make it here.

As it stands, every twig and pine needle is already caked in snow. If we do get into double digit totals, it'll probably be another few very cold and dark days in the neighborhood.

What do you think the chances of those legit bands making it up here before the pivot?

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

What do you think the chances are those legit bands make it up here before the pivot?

The position of the system right now looks consistent with getting the intense forcing overhead for most of us, but like we've said for days, it all depends on the trajectory of the low as it interacts with the upper trough. The HRRR has it jumping barely north of east within a few hours, so that would really limit the northwestward extend of banding. I would say that we all likely get under that primary fronto band for a time. The problem is that it'll be transient on account of the ENE tug, so I wouldn't bet on more than a few hours of rippage west of the Taconic. Somewhere like HPN is going to be under the pivot, and that's where I suspect the 12+ totals will be most common. Should be fun to watch...

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6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The position of the system right now looks consistent with getting the intense forcing overhead for most of us, but like we've said for days, it all depends on the trajectory of the low as it interacts with the upper trough. The HRRR has it jumping barely north of east within a few hours, so that would really limit the northwestward extend of banding. I would say that we all likely get under that primary fronto band for a time. The problem is that it'll be transient on account of the ENE tug, so I wouldn't bet on more than a few hours of rippage west of the Taconic. Somewhere like HPN is going to be under the pivot, and that's where I suspect the 12+ totals will be most common. Should be fun to watch...

Has per the latest radar loops, it appears to be forming well and moving north along the nj coast.

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38 minutes ago, snywx said:

 

Like father like son? lol.. @IrishRob17 loves to hear when @JerseyWx reports 4.3581"

lol.  This Winter I tried rounding to the tenth for some storms, but it just did not feel right.  For this one, I'm going back to my old ways.

Incredibly heavy snow right now, easily the heaviest I've seen since the Blizzard of 2016.

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  • IrishRob17 changed the title to Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018

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