Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Seems really wonky...would argue to toss the lollies and go with a 2-4" swath. Almost seems convective feedbacky lol. 2-4 sounds like a good call for now with maybe an isolated total where some good convective elements setup and train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 @yoda Can you say what the Euro is showing for Sat afternoon? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Big difference between the EURO and GFS for Saturday AM...EURO/NAM/UKMET all seem to have it raining pretty good across the whole region. GFS is much more showery and kinda strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Updated hydro section from LWX: Quote A flash flood watch has been issued for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for the northern 2/3 of the forecast area. Most likely rainfall amounts during this time will be around 3 to 5 inches. This may cause minor flooding...particularly across the Potomac River Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Nvm here's the expanded view courtesy of Ryan Maue on twitter:Max wind ecmwf RainSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 This fabulous site, should satisfy all your black market Euro needs: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/acc-total-precipitation/20170730-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The gust map from Maue's tweet seem awfully high... anyone else agree? I mean 50mph+ in heavy rain sounds nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 FYI from LWX AFD (afternoon update): The trend over the past couple days has been slower and farther south/west with this system for Saturday through Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: This fabulous site, should satisfy all your black market Euro needs: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/acc-total-precipitation/20170730-1200z.html Wow... great site. Thanks for the hookup in the black market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: That gust map on Maue's tweet seem awfully high... anyone else agree? It says "Maximum Gust" - would assume that would be the absolute highest. So not hours of 52mph gusts. That could verify with one 52mph gust and then hours of 35mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It says "Maximum Gust" - would assume that would be the absolute highest. So not hours of 52mph gusts. That could verify with one 52mph gust and then hours of 35mph gusts. True, but besides being in convective activity, I don't see the impetus for a gust that high... like the 65MPH down in SE MD near Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Using that amazing euro link, it looks like the 12Z Euro run is showing 40 mph+ gusts across the area from 10 am until around 7 pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 That website is amazing, everyone. Play around with the parameters, like this one: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/significant-weather/20170729-1500z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 I like the output on the Swiss super HD model. Do I get to whine if Old Town gets 7" and I only get half of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 48 minutes ago, mranger48 said: Nvm here's the expanded view courtesy of Ryan Maue on twitter: Max wind ecmwf Rain Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Maue has become too Bastardi-like. Man, I used to love those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 That thing gives me around an inch...dryslot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 We know the NAM thru 36 is correct because it leaves Dale City/Woodbridge with well less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 So... am I f-ed for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: So... am I f-ed for Saturday? It does not look good for you or for my Nats tix on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: So... am I f-ed for Saturday? I'm the guy on Twitter with the 100+ people coming for a pool party on Saturday. Yes, I do believe we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Since I'm treating this like tropical, two things: 1. I've seen the euro max gust product overdo things a lot many times. Not sure where it's getting those kind of widespread gusts from, but with a dynamic system and good mixing of winds aloft I think we're probably looking at inland gusts maxing out between 30-40 with higher gusts along the coast. 2. I'm still skeptical of huge rain totals. I'd lean closer toward widespread 2-4 with isolated rather than scattered areas doing really really well with more convective precip. I mean, hell, that's a great event any time of the year... Yeah, I don't but the Euro's max gust either. None of the other models are close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Yup, I'm in a big group with tickets for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Since I'm treating this like tropical, two things: 1. I've seen the euro max gust product overdo things a lot many times. Not sure where it's getting those kind of widespread gusts from, but with a dynamic system and good mixing of winds aloft I think we're probably looking at inland gusts maxing out between 30-40 with higher gusts along the coast. 2. I'm still skeptical of huge rain totals. I'd lean closer toward widespread 2-4 with isolated rather than scattered areas doing really really well with more convective precip. I mean, hell, that's a great event any time of the year... There's no way that gust map verifies west of the bay. When is the last time we had a coastal gust over 40 west of the bay? I don't think even Feb 2010 was able to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Interesting resolution difference, the 12km NAM stalls out like the other guidance shows and keeps us raining on Saturday. The 3km does not. Looks like east of the Bay only get precip while the rest of us start to dry out from our 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 I keep imagining this is January and we're about to be dumped on with snow... This will be a good test run for the new GFS, though, to see how it handles N'reasters. But y'all have fun with this storm! Looks to bypass us too much to get us in the heavy rain part here in Charlottesville. Oh well, at least we aren't roasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Took another look at the GFS, seems dry. Hope it trends better 1-3" won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Took another look at the GFS, seems dry. Hope it trends better 1-3" won't cut it. That would be quite lame. Anything under 4" with 35+mph winds is a big giant L in my book with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 From Mount Holly- Heavy rainfall...Shortwave energy rounding the base of the mid Atlantic trough will lead to cyclogenisis along a stalled frontal boundary near Delmarva from late Friday into early Saturday. As the mid-level trough closes off, the system will become vertically stacked on Saturday, with the surface low stalling off the Virginia Capes, before moving gradually northeastward on Monday. While there is model consensus through Saturday with the track of the low, the Canadian and NAM take the low further south and east on Sunday, while the GFS and ECMWF keep it locked in closer to the coast. We favored the GFS and ECMWF over the Canadian and NAM, as they have a better handle on the shortwave impulse associated with this system. Quite an impressive setup develops across the flash flood watch area on Saturday with an easterly 850 hpa jet of 50 kts developing (+3 to +4 STD DEV above normal), transporting deep later moisture into the region with Precipitable Water values in excess of two inches (+2 to +3 STD above normal). There are two potential bullseyes of heavy rainfall, one near the NJ coast, and another extending from southeast PA into Delmarva. With a frontal boundary stalled across Delmarva, rainfall across this area into southern NJ will also be convective in nature, as a broad area of instability sets up, as evidenced by MU CAPE, along with negative lifted and Showalter Indices. sounds good to me. need some excitement around here. what month is this again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Took another look at the GFS, seems dry. Hope it trends better 1-3" won't cut it. Seriously??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Seriously??? Yep, as a heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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