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End of July Super Soaker


Ellinwood

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34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

The 6z 3km NAM has some 10"+ lollipops, one over N/NE MD and another just south of my area. Highly doubt we see those kinds of amounts, but some localized 5-6 seem possible.

I remember Wes saying a few times the 3km NAM will throw random lollies out during the bigger rainfall events because it's resolution is almost "too fine".  Seems like your assessment is more logical.  Wonder if we see the D2 flood risk from WPC get nudge into moderate.

EDIT:  Adding LWX Hydro discussion for posterity.

Quote

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely later Friday through
Saturday night. There is still some uncertainty as to where the
heaviest rain is to setup...but based on the latest guidance the
most likely scenario is across northern Virginia...northern and
central Maryland...eastern West Virginia and toward the
Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan area. Most likely
rainfall amounts during this time will be around 3 to 5 inches.
This may cause minor flooding...particularly across the Potomac
River Basin. Latest MMEF shows minor flooding possible along
portions of the Potomac River Basin later Saturday into Sunday.
Confidence remains low at this time due to some uncertainty as
to exactly where the heaviest rain will setup. There is a chance
that the heavier rain band could be a bit farther north or even
a bit farther south...and this would have a significant impact
on river levels this weekend.

 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

When was the last time we had a high risk. 

Last year there was an event where the EURO spit out like 12" lollies 6 hours out and it flat out busted.  I think we had a decently sized MOD risk that day with a small HIGH near I-81 for terrain enhancements.  I don't think anyone got over 2" of rain with that event.  That's about as far back as I can remember.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Last year there was an event where the EURO spit out like 12" lollies 6 hours out and it flat out busted.  I think we had a decently sized MOD risk that day with a small HIGH near I-81 for terrain enhancements.  I don't think anyone got over 2" of rain with that event.  That's about as far back as I can remember.

Most models show high qpf now, right?

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Just now, BTRWx said:

Most models for this one show high qpf, right?

Yea they're showing a decent moderate 3" - 5" event, as in smaller and even moderate sized rivers would rise solidly with this.  You typically don't see the larger main stem rivers respond significantly until you get 6" across most of their basin (IE: Potomac).  This'll be a fun little thing to track...maybe we'll get another bump up on the numbers today.

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea they're showing a decent moderate 3" - 5" event, as in smaller and even moderate sized rivers would rise solidly with this.  You typically don't see the larger main stem rivers respond significantly until you get 6" across most of their basin (IE: Potomac).  This'll be a fun little thing to track...maybe we'll get another bump up on the numbers today.

Below the lwx hydro discussion, the tidal technicalities hint at 1' anomalies along the eastern shore!

eta: Those are the values before the rain. Wow!

https://s11.postimg.org/4c8l4w8pv/Noreaster_threat_late_July_2017_lwx_afd_hydro_ti.jpg

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Below the lwx hydro discussion, the tidal technicalities hint at 1' anomalies along the eastern shore!

eta: Those are the values before the rain. Wow!

https://s11.postimg.org/4c8l4w8pv/Noreaster_threat_late_July_2017_lwx_afd_hydro_ti.jpg

Yea they hoisted a coastal flood advisory for Alexandria and DC....it's interesting to see the number of coastal flood event increasing at the Inner Harbor too.  LWX talks about that in their spotter talks.  

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

The 6z 3km NAM has some 10"+ lollipops, one over N/NE MD and another just south of my area. Highly doubt we see those kinds of amounts, but some localized 5-6 seem possible.

The 6z NAM was crushing NW MD (just west of FDK, HGR area... Garrett County to Frederick County area) into SW PA with 6-10" of rain

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50 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Thanks for sharing! I this a podcast? It would be nice to have those liked during big events like this. FYI, I peek in every now and then for big events so I'm not always aware of how to get to some of these media. 

He does selective video posts leading up to big events and sometimes other weekly ones. https://www.vencoreweather.com/videos

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