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Heavy Rain Potential 7/27-7/29


Rtd208

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Man did it rain here last night.  Complete soaker.  Cape May Airport is reporting 4.11" since midnight.  A station in the Crest and one in Wildwood are at 4.60"+ so far.  As of right now things have calmed down, except for an occasional wind gust.

Yanks would have loved this one.

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17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The rain isn't even heavy enough to get through the tree leaves. Though it definitly has an early fall weak nor'easter feel

There's been a few days in July of all months that have felt like early fall. 

I wonder if this coolish pattern will continue for August, what do the LR models say?

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16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The rain isn't even heavy enough to get through the tree leaves. Though it definitly has an early fall weak nor'easter feel

...had a period of rain this morning..nothing to brag about and not enough to water the flowers

and newly planted shrubs..0.10" of rain..wind will be an issue today..but going fishing anyway..out 

to shinnecock to try for some fluke ..

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2 minutes ago, tim said:

...had a period of rain this morning..nothing to brag about and not enough to water the flowers

and newly planted shrubs..0.10" of rain..wind will be an issue today..but going fishing anyway..out 

to shinnecock to try for some fluke ..

I'm at the beach right now and the ocean is surprisingly calm. Minimal waves about 2 foot on the beach. As the flow is mostly side/off shore. As the low pulls out to sea an easterly ground swell will arrive later this afternoon into tomorrow 

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11 hours ago, Paragon said:

Honestly, with how much rain we've had here, we don't need this although it would be fun to see a noreaster in July.  I wonder if some of the precip programs showing >.50" south of the Southern State are correct.  I saw one that had 0.7" for Long Beach and 0.04" for Central Park.  In the winter that would be 7 inches of snow here and less than half an inch for Central Park lol.  Atlantic City would be getting like two feet!  Which is basically what happened with the 2/5/10 storm.

There was some light rain early this morning, enough to make the ground wet. That's about it. 

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

.16 total...lmao at how bad the models were in the mid range.....forecasters need to go back to forecasting and not just regurgitating model outputs

 

anyhoo looks like a sneaky low level heatwave could happen for some in the upcoming week

What a bad post.  This was completely within model error for the range.  And ripping mets for not getting this complex setup right in the midrange is a joke.

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25 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What a bad post.  This was completely within model error for the range.  And ripping mets for not getting this complex setup right in the midrange is a joke.

I disagree somewhat. The national weather service had the south shore at .5-1" right up till go time. It was evident last night following the radar trends and lowering dew points that wasn't going to happen. It's just barely breezy at the beach right now. Definitly a disappointment to surfers and gardners. 

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5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I disagree somewhat. The national weather service had the south shore at .5-1" right up till go time. It was evident last night following the radar trends and lowering dew points that wasn't going to happen. It's just barely breezy at the beach right now. Definitly a disappointment to surfers and gardners. 

 

Why in the world would they have 1" forecasted for us?  And I didn't see that when I was poking around on there last night. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

There was some light rain early this morning, enough to make the ground wet. That's about it. 

Rare late July Noreaster brushing our area with the winds picking up as the storm pulls away. Not too many days this time of year with NE flow gusting over 30 without a tropical system involved.

Jones Beach      N/A     68 N/A N/A NE25G32 
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5 hours ago, Rjay said:

What a bad post.  This was completely within model error for the range.  And ripping mets for not getting this complex setup right in the midrange is a joke.

Thank you! Maybe he should try forecasting since he's telling them what they should be doing. I never hear him calling out mets when temps overperform. Honestly, I think the real joke is him.

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4 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

Why in the world would they have 1" forecasted for us?  And I didn't see that when I was poking around on there last night. 

That's what my point and click had at 8 last night. .25-.5 for the overnight and .25-.5 today. Not trying to make a big deal out it. 

The amazing thing about today despite all the wind the ocean is still flat 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That's what my point and click had at 8 last night. .25-.5 for the overnight and .25-.5 today. Not trying to make a big deal out it. 

The amazing thing about today despite all the wind the ocean is still flat 

Wow.  

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27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That's what my point and click had at 8 last night. .25-.5 for the overnight and .25-.5 today. Not trying to make a big deal out it. 

The amazing thing about today despite all the wind the ocean is still flat 

Yup, a very minor swell here and that's it. Winds are also calming down nicely here, just a 10-15mph NE breeze once in a while. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, a very minor swell here and that's it. Winds are also calming down nicely here, just a 10-15mph NE breeze once in a while. 

Big bust for surfers. This is the worst time of the year so it was very welcome. Well it was supposed to be welcome. There is still tomorrow but it's not looking good 

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On 7/29/2017 at 0:54 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I disagree somewhat. The national weather service had the south shore at .5-1" right up till go time. It was evident last night following the radar trends and lowering dew points that wasn't going to happen. It's just barely breezy at the beach right now. Definitly a disappointment to surfers and gardners. 

Upton had stratiform rain here right up til the bitter end.  Saw nothing.  Not sure why they didn't bail Friday AM when it was clear the dry push would win on this one.

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Upton had stratiform rain here right up til the bitter end.  Saw nothing.  Not sure why they didn't bail Friday AM when it was clear the dry push would win on this one.

It's been puzzling me. The writing was on the wall Friday evening. 

The storm also produced zero surf. So the rip current warnings were completely unnecessary. We had zero rescues yesterday at jones beach. The ocean was pretty much flat. 

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