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Heavy Rain Potential 7/27-7/29


Rtd208

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I think this is mostly a miss for the NYC metro area at least as far as the heaviest rainfall amounts are concerned. I will wait until after the 00z model runs before I fully commit to that idea in case of a north shift with the precip. on the models. I am under a Flood Watch (on the north edge of it pending what Upton does) from tomorrow afternoon into Saturday afternoon for 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts.

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The models this summer seem too erratic to be useful.  

Rain forecasts swing from deluge to drought without obvious cause and on short notice.  Each swing further damages their credibility as well as their utility.

Where is the adult supervision?

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2 minutes ago, Morris said:

12km NAM has 0.2" for the city.

3km 0.6" with a little more for part of Brooklyn.

GFS has a trace for the city and screws most of central Jersey.

RGEM is the same. 

Fork meet city rain.

 

Time to close out this thread, been the trend all summer (wagons south). But seriously, it will be interesting to watch this storm unfold and nowcast but for right now this looks like a rather light event for most of us.

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26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

06z NAM even further south, anyone hoping for a north trend good luck, I feel like its January and we are tracking a snowstorm.

The kind of weather patterns we're having right now, I wonder if it has any implications for the winter?

 

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

I am actually disappointed that this is turning into a rather light event for us, I was really hoping for a good rainstorm. Hopefully there will be other opportunities.

Me too, I can't remember the last time we had a noreaster in July!

 

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Are folks thinking here that this is definitely trending toward leaving NYC < 0.15?  One of these situations where the media hasn't caught up to the models?  Or is there still a lot of uncertainty? My family and the general public now has it in its head that we're getting drenched all day tomorrow here in SE Nassau.   Sounds like we get something maybe in early overnight hours followed by not a perfect July day by any means, but at least dry?

 

Edit:  meant to say < 0.15

Edit 2:  fixed other incoherence

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4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Are folks thinking here that this is definitely trending toward leaving NYC < 0.15?  One of these situations where the media hasn't caught up to the models?  Or is there still a lot of uncertainty? My family and the general public now has it in its head that we're getting drenched all day tomorrow here in SE Nassau.   Sounds like we get something maybe in early overnight hours followed by not a perfect July day by any means, but at least dry?

 

Edit:  meant to say < 0.15

Edit 2:  fixed other incoherence

Right now I would say amounts will probably average an inch or less in the metro area. 

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