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Heavy Rain Potential 7/27-7/29


Rtd208

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12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

If this were winter there would be alot of cliff jumping. Not sure whether we should buy these sharp precip. cutoffs or the southern solutions or not but it would go with seasonal trend so far.

Has all the markings of a big SNJ jackpot.   I'm guessing everyone gets some rain, but the cutoff b/w an inch and much bigger totals may not be that far apart....

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Shocker. Unless there is a north trend in future model runs I think its time to stick a fork in getting the really heavy amounts for us but we should still be in the 1-3" range in the metro area depending on location.

There is going To be a large strataform rain shield with this. That should despite lighter intensities give everyone a shot at an inch or two. The area where this precip trains and heavier convection forms sees the mega totals. That's definitely looking south of us now...

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Euro is 10 inches in SE NJ-just off LBI and a second max over SW NJ.  Philly and NYC see about an inch.   North of NYC by about 30-40 miles is high and dry.

Like I have been saying all morning, right in line with seasonal trend. S NJ is the place to be this summer if you like heavy rain/severe weather.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is 10 inches in SE NJ-just off LBI and a second max over SW NJ.  Philly and NYC see about an inch.   North of NYC by about 30-40 miles is high and dry.

Does it still cut off and give us days of drizzle/clouds? The CMC went south enough so that we cleared out until tues night, hoping the euro trended towards doing the same.

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5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Does it still cut off and give us days of drizzle/clouds? The CMC went south enough so that we cleared out until tues night, hoping the euro trended towards doing the same.

it does-we are cloudy but dry verbatim, but the storm is in no hurry to leave. Shows some sun Sunday, but then the cloud shield backs in and socks us in for 2-3 more days...   SW CT verbatim is mostly dry outside of extreme SW parts like Stamford and Greenwich which get about .25 or so.

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it does-we are cloudy but dry verbatim, but the storm is in no hurry to leave.   SW CT verbatim is mostly dry outside of extreme SW parts like Stamford and Greenwich which get about .25 or so.

I'm actually out on vacation in block island for a week starting Saturday, so I'm hoping this damn system goes far enough south to clear us out by Sunday. The trend seems to be a bit better than 0z but it's seems like it's gonna be difficult for the region to avoid some cloudy/windy weather early in the week.

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I was under the impression the WAR was moving our prior systems slightly north and east compared to the modeling leading into the event. Not south. 

 

Understand the -NAO is the bigger player here, but I think there may be a noticeable shift north before all is said and done. Either way, all models are showing a wicked cutoff on the north side. Cliffs would be incoming for many of us northern posters in the winter months. 

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27 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I was under the impression the WAR was moving our prior systems slightly north and east compared to the modeling leading into the event. Not south. 

 

Understand the -NAO is the bigger player here, but I think there may be a noticeable shift north before all is said and done. Either way, all models are showing a wicked cutoff on the north side. Cliffs would be incoming for many of us northern posters in the winter months. 

it's a battle b/w the NAO and the WAR.   The NAO drop is pretty anomolous, so I can see that winning out in the end.  Might get more rain here tonight from the front than the actual storm!

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