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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

166 posts in this topic

On 9/20/2017 at 8:46 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

It's dumb, no if, and, or buts about it. Lake effect is localized and a totally different monster than synoptic storms around here. When the public hears Lake Effect Snow Warning they know it's anywhere from 10" to several feet of snow. When they hear Winter Storm Warning they know the maximum is usually 12-15" in most storms around here. The snowfall rates in LES can be up to 7-8" an hour, in synoptic 1-2" per hour is usually the max. They are totally different animals. The public IMO treats these 2 warnings very different. I honestly want to message KBUF about this, as I feel they are making a pretty big mistake here. Are any other NWS offices doing this? 

Howdy :) 

Was taking a quick break from tropical season to come in and see if there were any early LE outlook posts, and stumbled upon this. I agree. I imagine that the folks who live in the typical LE areas already have a sense of the difference between a big LE event and a synoptic event, even if they can't articulate it on the spot. I think you really risk oversimplification in a place that has a diverse set of winter wx events. What do I know though. 

Definitely looking forward to making it up there for foliage and lake effect season. I'm saving some vacation days for a big daddy snow event.

I'm itching for a monster :P 

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Howdy :) 

Was taking a quick break from tropical season to come in and see if there were any early LE outlook posts, and stumbled upon this. I agree. I imagine that the folks who live in the typical LE areas already have a sense of the difference between a big LE event and a synoptic event, even if they can't articulate it on the spot. I think you really risk oversimplification in a place that has a diverse set of winter wx events. What do I know though. 

Definitely looking forward to making it up there for foliage and lake effect season. I'm saving some vacation days for a big daddy snow event.

I'm itching for a monster :P 

Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.

 

 

Speaking my language now bud :thumbsup:

Let's just make sure the biggest event doesn't happen during my anniversary week lol. 

Hopefully I can clear enough time to be up there for 3-5 days. 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.

I think that's a bit generous. There are quite a few years where the Tug Hill doesn't see a 50" event if you look through this nice archive: http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Looks like Buffalo beats out Miami for best beach weather this weekend!  

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This is absolutely absurd. Never can I remember it being this warm for this long in September. This string of consecutive 80+ degree days (and a lot will be upper 80s) has to be a record for the most in September ever. I will look through some data later to confirm but I'd bet a lot of money there's never been 12-13 straight days of 80+ in September and if there is it has to be all like 80-82 degree stuff. 

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15 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

This is absolutely absurd. Never can I remember it being this warm for this long in September. This string of consecutive 80+ degree days (and a lot will be upper 80s) has to be a record for the most in September ever. I will look through some data later to confirm but I'd bet a lot of money there's never been 12-13 straight days of 80+ in September and if there is it has to be all like 80-82 degree stuff. 

I'm enjoying every second of it. Have a outdoor beach volleyball tournament today at Holidays in west seneca. They haven't put the dome up yet. 

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question: does a warmer fall usually increase the chances of a strong lake effect season?

Only if you can get cold air. Usually warm falls lead to warm winters. Obviously the warmer the lake and the colder the air the better. 2001 had well above normal temps until Christmas week and then Buffalo got 7 feet in a week. Oct 2006 had well below normal temps in fall and Buffalo got 2 feet in the middle of October. Nov. 2014 had warmer than normal temps up to Nov and then got cold. It all really depends, but from my research there is no clear trend. 

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question: does a warmer fall usually increase the chances of a strong lake effect season?

And because of how shallow Lake Erie is, it doesn't take much for it to cool down and lose that energy. A week of below normal temps and it will be right back down to normal most likely.

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question: does a warmer fall usually increase the chances of a strong lake effect season?

No relationship...

Lake Erie actually went up another degree today and is up to 70*.  Using today's date I pulled a small sample of lake temps on 9/23 and where KBUF finished the following winter in snowfall.  For this date the record warmest was 74* while the coldest was 62*

Cold Lake...

1954 - 62* - 84.4"

1956 - 62* - 113.7"

1982 - 62* - 52.4"

1937 - 63* - no snowfall data

 

Warm Lake...

2016 - 74* - 76.1"

1931 - 72* - no snowfall data

2005 - 71* - 78.2"

2002 - 71* - 111.3"

1961 - 71* - 101.4

1968 - 70* - 78.4"

1998 - 70* - 100.5"

 

One strange thing I hate to say since I am a GW denier is the fact that for the 70 year span of 1927-1997 the lake was only 70*+ 3 times (an interval of once every 23 years).  Over the 19 year span of 1998-2017 the lake has now been at 70* or higher 5 times (an interval of once every 4 years).

 

Anyways back to the question.  Warm fall has no effect.  All depends on when those artic flood gates open up. 

 

 

 

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Thanks everyone for the answers and data. I was looking over that wonderful link from heavy_wx and was curious if the preceding few months made a difference. Hopefully it's a banner year for all :) 

I told my gf that I was going to chase in the Tug region this winter and she said good luck with that :lol: 

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

One strange thing I hate to say since I am a GW denier is the fact that for the 70 year span of 1927-1997 the lake was only 70*+ 3 times (an interval of once every 23 years).  Over the 19 year span of 1998-2017 the lake has now been at 70* or higher 5 times (an interval of once every 4 years).

 

 

 

 

 

You can't be serious?  Even with blatant data that you yourself present.  Im guessing a trump supporter to boot....   Ugh   Wake up dude, its basic science.  

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I want to go storm chasing lake effect snow events this winter, hopefully my best friend and I can get going there and maybe even visit my grandmother in the process, she lives in western NY Buffalo to be exact.

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