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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

184 posts in this topic

On 9/20/2017 at 8:46 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

It's dumb, no if, and, or buts about it. Lake effect is localized and a totally different monster than synoptic storms around here. When the public hears Lake Effect Snow Warning they know it's anywhere from 10" to several feet of snow. When they hear Winter Storm Warning they know the maximum is usually 12-15" in most storms around here. The snowfall rates in LES can be up to 7-8" an hour, in synoptic 1-2" per hour is usually the max. They are totally different animals. The public IMO treats these 2 warnings very different. I honestly want to message KBUF about this, as I feel they are making a pretty big mistake here. Are any other NWS offices doing this? 

Howdy :) 

Was taking a quick break from tropical season to come in and see if there were any early LE outlook posts, and stumbled upon this. I agree. I imagine that the folks who live in the typical LE areas already have a sense of the difference between a big LE event and a synoptic event, even if they can't articulate it on the spot. I think you really risk oversimplification in a place that has a diverse set of winter wx events. What do I know though. 

Definitely looking forward to making it up there for foliage and lake effect season. I'm saving some vacation days for a big daddy snow event.

I'm itching for a monster :P 

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Howdy :) 

Was taking a quick break from tropical season to come in and see if there were any early LE outlook posts, and stumbled upon this. I agree. I imagine that the folks who live in the typical LE areas already have a sense of the difference between a big LE event and a synoptic event, even if they can't articulate it on the spot. I think you really risk oversimplification in a place that has a diverse set of winter wx events. What do I know though. 

Definitely looking forward to making it up there for foliage and lake effect season. I'm saving some vacation days for a big daddy snow event.

I'm itching for a monster :P 

Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.

 

 

Speaking my language now bud :thumbsup:

Let's just make sure the biggest event doesn't happen during my anniversary week lol. 

Hopefully I can clear enough time to be up there for 3-5 days. 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Exactly! When a Lake Effect Snow Watch is issued you know what the possibilities are depending on the verbiage of the warning. You also know that its most likely going to be more localized. A winter storm watch into a lake effect snow warning makes little to no sense, why not just keep it the same? From my understanding lake effect snow warnings and advs are completely gone. The only thing there will be is winter storm warning or advisory? We had a big event last year but it's been 3 years since a really big event in the populated regions of WNY. The city is especially overdue for one. Lake Ontario in the tug gets on average 2-3 50" events a year. So every year you can set aside time to chase up there.

I think that's a bit generous. There are quite a few years where the Tug Hill doesn't see a 50" event if you look through this nice archive: http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Looks like Buffalo beats out Miami for best beach weather this weekend!  

IMG_2419.PNG

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This is absolutely absurd. Never can I remember it being this warm for this long in September. This string of consecutive 80+ degree days (and a lot will be upper 80s) has to be a record for the most in September ever. I will look through some data later to confirm but I'd bet a lot of money there's never been 12-13 straight days of 80+ in September and if there is it has to be all like 80-82 degree stuff. 

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15 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

This is absolutely absurd. Never can I remember it being this warm for this long in September. This string of consecutive 80+ degree days (and a lot will be upper 80s) has to be a record for the most in September ever. I will look through some data later to confirm but I'd bet a lot of money there's never been 12-13 straight days of 80+ in September and if there is it has to be all like 80-82 degree stuff. 

I'm enjoying every second of it. Have a outdoor beach volleyball tournament today at Holidays in west seneca. They haven't put the dome up yet. 

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question: does a warmer fall usually increase the chances of a strong lake effect season?

Only if you can get cold air. Usually warm falls lead to warm winters. Obviously the warmer the lake and the colder the air the better. 2001 had well above normal temps until Christmas week and then Buffalo got 7 feet in a week. Oct 2006 had well below normal temps in fall and Buffalo got 2 feet in the middle of October. Nov. 2014 had warmer than normal temps up to Nov and then got cold. It all really depends, but from my research there is no clear trend. 

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question: does a warmer fall usually increase the chances of a strong lake effect season?

And because of how shallow Lake Erie is, it doesn't take much for it to cool down and lose that energy. A week of below normal temps and it will be right back down to normal most likely.

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question: does a warmer fall usually increase the chances of a strong lake effect season?

No relationship...

Lake Erie actually went up another degree today and is up to 70*.  Using today's date I pulled a small sample of lake temps on 9/23 and where KBUF finished the following winter in snowfall.  For this date the record warmest was 74* while the coldest was 62*

Cold Lake...

1954 - 62* - 84.4"

1956 - 62* - 113.7"

1982 - 62* - 52.4"

1937 - 63* - no snowfall data

 

Warm Lake...

2016 - 74* - 76.1"

1931 - 72* - no snowfall data

2005 - 71* - 78.2"

2002 - 71* - 111.3"

1961 - 71* - 101.4

1968 - 70* - 78.4"

1998 - 70* - 100.5"

 

One strange thing I hate to say since I am a GW denier is the fact that for the 70 year span of 1927-1997 the lake was only 70*+ 3 times (an interval of once every 23 years).  Over the 19 year span of 1998-2017 the lake has now been at 70* or higher 5 times (an interval of once every 4 years).

 

Anyways back to the question.  Warm fall has no effect.  All depends on when those artic flood gates open up. 

 

 

 

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Thanks everyone for the answers and data. I was looking over that wonderful link from heavy_wx and was curious if the preceding few months made a difference. Hopefully it's a banner year for all :) 

I told my gf that I was going to chase in the Tug region this winter and she said good luck with that :lol: 

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

One strange thing I hate to say since I am a GW denier is the fact that for the 70 year span of 1927-1997 the lake was only 70*+ 3 times (an interval of once every 23 years).  Over the 19 year span of 1998-2017 the lake has now been at 70* or higher 5 times (an interval of once every 4 years).

 

 

 

 

 

You can't be serious?  Even with blatant data that you yourself present.  Im guessing a trump supporter to boot....   Ugh   Wake up dude, its basic science.  

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I want to go storm chasing lake effect snow events this winter, hopefully my best friend and I can get going there and maybe even visit my grandmother in the process, she lives in western NY Buffalo to be exact.

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Hey All! It's been a while since I've posted in here, but I've been following the western New York heat very closely over the last week. It looks very likely that Buffalo will go for two if not three consecutive 90F+ days between today and Tuesday. Obviously the airport just made 90F today, and I'm almost certain they will do it again tomorrow with the warmest h85 temps and highest heights directly over the region. The light easterly synoptic wind should limit any lake breezes to the immediate shoreline, if a lake breeze even develops at all. This is incredible.

Does anyone know if KBUF has ever logged back-to-back 90F days in September before? I'm guessing this has never happened, but I don't have access to data sets that could verify this.

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15 minutes ago, kulaginman said:

Hey All! It's been a while since I've posted in here, but I've been following the western New York heat very closely over the last week. It looks very likely that Buffalo will go for two if not three consecutive 90F+ days between today and Tuesday. Obviously the airport just made 90F today, and I'm almost certain they will do it again tomorrow with the warmest h85 temps and highest heights directly over the region. The light easterly synoptic wind should limit any lake breezes to the immediate shoreline, if a lake breeze even develops at all. This is incredible.

Does anyone know if KBUF has ever logged back-to-back 90F days in September before? I'm guessing this has never happened, but I don't have access to data sets that could verify this.

Hey Justin, good to hear from ya! Any plans on coming back to WNY anytime soon? (you always bring the good lake effect lol.). Anyway I did a little digging and was surprised to find this definitely is not the first time KBUF has hit consecutive 90 degree days in September, however this looks like this will be the latest in September this will have ever been accomplished. September 12-14, 1952 hit 91 all 3 days in a row. September 2-4, 1953 hit 93, 98, and 94 respectively. So quite a heat wave especially for this late in September but it has happened before this month! 

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Hey Justin, good to hear from ya! Any plans on coming back to WNY anytime soon? (you always bring the good lake effect lol.). Anyway I did a little digging and was surprised to find this definitely is not the first time KBUF has hit consecutive 90 degree days in September, however this looks like this will be the latest in September this will have ever been accomplished. September 12-14, 1952 hit 91 all 3 days in a row. September 2-4, 1953 hit 93, 98, and 94 respectively. So quite a heat wave especially for this late in September but it has happened before this month! 

Wow, thanks for the stats! This is exactly what I was looking for. We will see how this shakes out, but what an impressive stretch this has been so far.

I actually will be coming home to Buffalo for quite an extended period in November. As of right now, it looks like I'll be arriving in Buffalo on November 17th...and possibly staying straight through until November 27th. I'll be coming home for Christmas as well, but dates TBD. Definitely hoping for some excitement when I'm back!

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2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Hey Justin, good to hear from ya! Any plans on coming back to WNY anytime soon? (you always bring the good lake effect lol.). Anyway I did a little digging and was surprised to find this definitely is not the first time KBUF has hit consecutive 90 degree days in September, however this looks like this will be the latest in September this will have ever been accomplished. September 12-14, 1952 hit 91 all 3 days in a row. September 2-4, 1953 hit 93, 98, and 94 respectively. So quite a heat wave especially for this late in September but it has happened before this month! 

Just crazy stuff. Had to put the AC back in the window. Short cool down this coming weekend and then we are right back at well above normal temps. I feel like the pattern setting up is very similar to what happened late fall/winter last year. It's odd the pattern switched to cooler than normal for the summer months and looks to be back to well above normal for the foreseeable future.  

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just crazy stuff. Had to put the AC back in the window. Short cool down this coming weekend and then we are right back at well above normal temps. I feel like the pattern setting up is very similar to what happened late fall/winter last year. It's odd the pattern switched to cooler than normal for the summer months and looks to be back to well above normal for the foreseeable future.  

Agree. From April/May until 2 weeks ago it seems like there was a constant western ridge and eastern  trough. Now as soon as we're getting into the cooler weather season we flip that pattern around. Honestly it's frustrating and I'm really hoping by mid to end of October we flip back to how it was the last 6 months or at least less "ridgey"

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4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Agree. From April/May until 2 weeks ago it seems like there was a constant western ridge and eastern  trough. Now as soon as we're getting into the cooler weather season we flip that pattern around. Honestly it's frustrating and I'm really hoping by mid to end of October we flip back to how it was the last 6 months or at least less "ridgey"

I just don't see it. Strong Ninas are terrible for our region.

 

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Buffalo broke a record yesterday with a high of 90, record was 88. They broke a record today with a high of 91, record was 87. Tomorrows record is 87, could be 3 in a row. 

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Buffalo broke a record yesterday with a high of 90, record was 88. They broke a record today with a high of 91, record was 87. Tomorrows record is 87, could be 3 in a row. 

This is nuts, and after a 3-4 day cool down back to normal temps we're going right back to the 80s by next Tuesday/Wednesday. I wonder if Septembers monthly average will be higher than July and August. 

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4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

This is nuts, and after a 3-4 day cool down back to normal temps we're going right back to the 80s by next Tuesday/Wednesday. I wonder if Septembers monthly average will be higher than July and August. 

Really doubtful - July's avg temp was 70.7 and August's was 68.7. We're currently at 66.4 for September but the average for the remaining days in September will be well under that (even including today and tomorrow), so we'll probably end up around 66 for the month - four degrees higher than normal but one degree cooler than September 2016, which was very consistently warm.

Where are you getting the 80+ for next week? It looks like areas near Rochester may crack 80 next Tuesday and Wednesday, but outside of that it would be in the 70s - not nearly as hot/humid or widespread as the heat this week. Highs in the 70s is still 10 degrees above average, but this week has been brutal and at least we shouldn't get that (though the core of the heat in PA will be gross).

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6 hours ago, WNash said:

Really doubtful - July's avg temp was 70.7 and August's was 68.7. We're currently at 66.4 for September but the average for the remaining days in September will be well under that (even including today and tomorrow), so we'll probably end up around 66 for the month - four degrees higher than normal but one degree cooler than September 2016, which was very consistently warm.

Where are you getting the 80+ for next week? It looks like areas near Rochester may crack 80 next Tuesday and Wednesday, but outside of that it would be in the 70s - not nearly as hot/humid or widespread as the heat this week. Highs in the 70s is still 10 degrees above average, but this week has been brutal and at least we shouldn't get that (though the core of the heat in PA will be gross).

Considering the first 10 days of September we're solidy below normal to end up this far above normal is pretty impressive. 

 

A few days ago models had 850 temps around + 14C to + 16C but have since backed off to around +10C to + 13C. Our last heatwave had around +19C 850 temps so if we did get back to around +15C  or so 80s would definitely be possible again but now your right it does not look likely. 

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

IMG_2531.JPG

Lake Erie literally can go up and down 5 degrees per week. If it was 5-7 degrees above normal in late Nov/Dec, then we have something. But right now it doesn't mean much. 

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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Crazy to think that Buffalos average first snowfall is a little over 3 weeks away with temps near 90.

AVERAGE First Flake Oct 24
First Measurable (.1" or more) Nov 8
First Inch Nov 18
 

It is crazy but even this weekend we may have some frost inland from the lake. To me that's more crazy. 90+ to frost in a matter of 3-4 days.

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