CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Maybe we can get some sort of hybrid thing to form along the front like the European has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe this is why the tropics have been so maddening...now, if we could just find some sort of meteorological elixir for these nuances, we could end society as we know it in shot order. Coastal property is too valuable to the powers that be, if it wasn't obvious already. This is a battle that cannot be won with technological prowess. However, it's more than likely to be a super (in)convenient side effect of a lengthening hurricane season and MDR drying. and @CoastalWX....then there is the Euro. Opportunities go thru the roof if it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get some sort of hybrid thing to form along the front like the European has. Bob formed from a decaying front....thing with that is that a trough would have inherently had to have just cleared the region, so ridging would likely predominate in its wake for a stretch......hence se US threat....or it meanders and waits until the next Trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Coastal property is too valuable to the powers that be, if it wasn't obvious already. This is a battle that cannot be won with technological prowess. However, it's more than likely to be a super (in)convenient side effect of a lengthening hurricane season and MDR drying. and @CoastalWX....then there is the Euro. Opportunities go thru the roof if it is correct. Welcome, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 hour ago, WXEnthusiast said: Your just making yourself look stupid assuming this far out. Actually not at all. He said providing sound, scientific, and meteorological reasoning in his assertion, one which by the way will be correct. If so many more would take the time to study, analyze, and understand synoptic patterns people wouldn't have to make these ridiculous posts (especially on twitter where it happens all the time) which say "you never know" or "models could change". When there is a projected favorable pattern in place and that's timed with a system coming up the coast or near the coast then we'll have something of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: When there is a projected favorable pattern in place and that's timed with a system coming up the coast or near the coast then we'll have something of interest. Cool. See you in a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Cool. See you in a decade. Which is pretty much the average time between landfalls here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Actually not at all. He said providing sound, scientific, and meteorological reasoning in his assertion, one which by the way will be correct. If so many more would take the time to study, analyze, and understand synoptic patterns people wouldn't have to make these ridiculous posts (especially on twitter where it happens all the time) which say "you never know" or "models could change". When there is a projected favorable pattern in place and that's timed with a system coming up the coast or near the coast then we'll have something of interest. Eventually I provided sound reasoning when challenged, but my original posts were heavily saturated with frustration. I stay the hell off of twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eventually I provided sound reasoning when challenged, but my original posts were heavily saturated with frustration. I stay the hell off of twitter. I mainly use twitter to follow the folks (like Anthony Masiello and Sam Lillo) for long-range discussion and learn more about stuff like QBO, solar, etc. twitter is a cesspool though. All the comments and replies are along the lines if "models can change, you never know" or "I think that model is wrong" (referring to the model showing the less extreme solution) and not giving any insight into why it might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I mainly use twitter to follow the folks (like Anthony Masiello and Sam Lillo) for long-range discussion and learn more about stuff like QBO, solar, etc. twitter is a cesspool though. All the comments and replies are along the lines if "models can change, you never know" or "I think that model is wrong" (referring to the model showing the less extreme solution) and not giving any insight into why it might be wrong. Yes, I do that during the winter, but I have zero use for summer time weather. I don't give a rat's about the drought index, or whether or not the Berkshires are going to get thunderstorms.....gotta admit, though....the circle-jerks of lawn photos get my engine revving. The sooner this useless, uncomfortable season ends, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, I do that during the winter, but I have zero use for summer time weather. I don't give a rat's about the drought index, or whether of not the Bershires or going to get thunderstorms.....gotta admit, though....the circle-jerks of lawn photos get my engine revving. The sooner this useless, uncomfortable season ends, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get some sort of hybrid thing to form along the front like the European has. oH, the euro does now too ? huh - the GFS picked upon the book-ender idea. GGEM's had it for several .... year hem ehm, I mean runs fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I admitted it....it is reality and empirically based, but the exaggeration is born of deep frustration with the tropics that has been brooding for several seasons. i thought it was hilarious to point out the 'shadows on the wall' ... Heh, as much as he doesn't like the "therapy" of it (even though that was not intended at all..), most in here desperately need it. particularly those that get angry by it - ah ah ha-ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Rapidly intensifying storm into TX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rapidly intensifying storm into TX? I was just taking an interest in Harvey as you typed this. The northward shift in track has two implications that are not boring: 1) US LF potential is increased 2) Length of time over warm waters in a rather conducive upper level envt. is protracted. Watch this one- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Think Harv can break the 12 year drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Think Harv can break the 12 year drought? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 I would like to see the EURO shift a bit more to the north. However the idea of this striking the US gulf coast below the latitude of the N coast reduces the impact of yet another collapser, as it mitigates the opportunity to entrain dry, continental air just prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would like to see the EURO shift a bit more to the north. However the idea of this striking the US gulf coast below the latitude of the N coast reduces the impact of yet another collapser, as it mitigates the opportunity to entrain dry, continental air just prior to landfall. Also means it has a good chance of hitting the last empty shoreline on the east coast. Majors can hit south of Corpus Christi and do nothing but annoy some cows. See e.g. Bret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Also means it has a good chance of hitting the last empty shoreline on the east coast. Majors can hit south of Corpus Christi and do nothing but annoy some cows. See e.g. Bret. Lets get a major hurricane barreling towards the US coast first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lets get a major hurricane barreling towards the US coast first. Well, it seems like a relevant analog given BoC origin and projected track. FWIW, Bret was a collapser even though it hit King Ranch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Well, it seems like a relevant analog given BoC origin and projected track. FWIW, Bret was a collapser even though it hit King Ranch. Yea, it could still collapse, regardless.....some of it is attributable to internal processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was just taking an interest in Harvey as you typed this. The northward shift in track has two implications that are not boring: 1) US LF potential is increased 2) Length of time over warm waters in a rather conducive upper level envt. is protracted. Watch this one- We are going to get busy with this one at work. Probably will ramp work up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: We are going to get busy with this one at work. Probably will ramp work up tomorrow. I feel like this one is dangerous in that it could catch many with their pants down...threat has quickly escalated with shift in guidance, in conjunction with prolonged period of meteorological quiescence and the distraction of the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 The flooding would be prolific to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 This storm reminds me of an old, unnamed met friend of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: This storm reminds me of an old, unnamed met friend of mine. Do you have email discussions with him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: This storm reminds me of an old, unnamed met friend of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 43 minutes ago, Hoth said: The flooding would be prolific to say the least. Yeah, I think the biggest impact would be the catastrophic flooding near Austin. Some of the models spit out an absurd amount of rain in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Heat content is not as high as the Gulf loop, but SSTs which is plenty. It's not like you'll have crazy upwelling in that part of the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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