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Tropical Season 2017


40/70 Benchmark

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

92L and the wave over West Africa coast worries me a bit, but should worry Atlantic Canada more.  I think one of these systems the high is going to build in, in time to block the next big hurricane from heading out to sea.  Gert was close.

Future 93l might be one to watch!! 92l has a slim chance but not zero...

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7 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

18z GFS brings future 03L into Nova Scotia and has tropical storm force winds over Cape and Islands from the northeasterly wind direction. it has over 100 knot winds at 850mb

you are looking at the 18z GFS, at what,  384 hours? sure, yeah that could hit that Cape. It could also hit iceland.

come on man, at some point you have got to stop wishcasting this stuff. 

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14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Mike V has had some good tweets about the tropics. The upper levels overall are still very favorable. Obviously some areas not as much....but the basin as a whole remains in a favorable state. 

yeah...  true, buuut..   

things are still "behaving" challenged?  

I'm actually been curious over this mitigation tendency for TC so far.  We've seen some crank-cases emerge off the west coast of Africa and then they summarily vanished despite that initial favored look. Other seasons? hell - you toss a cumulus cloud off the coast out there and you got a TD.  

Softening the field has really been characterizing the mid season so far... Granted, 'late' season may change that tonality - who knows.  And as I've also advertised, there are those indicators for a rapid frequency up-tick over the next three weeks - that an climo.  That's all still in place... the MJO/ 200 mb v-p are all in line... water warm... let's go! 

SAL ...  that's been a problem.  I am not sure (in fact, have my doubts really) that the contaminating effects of SAL are being properly sampled/ and/or if they are even physically parameterized in the various modeling types. It doesn't seem that it is.  The models do seem to see the dry air though - interestingly... There's a distinction between dry air entraining vs dry air containing surplus dust to inhibit cloud micro-physical processes ... (it gets eye-glossy from there).

In any case, every guidance, including the Euro have been a bit development-biased.  Gert's a relative success story granted... but event this one was biased on the stronger side since it was way east of Windward's.  By and large the majority of storms have been modeling hallucinations. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...  true, buuut..   

things are still "behaving" challenged?  

I'm actually been curious over this mitigation tendency for TC so far.  We've seen some crank-cases emerge off the west coast of Africa and then they summarily vanished despite that initial favored look. Other seasons? hell - you toss a cumulus cloud off the coast out there and you got a TD.  

Softening the field has really been characterizing the mid season so far... Granted, 'late' season may change that tonality - who knows.  And as I've also advertised, there are those indicators for a rapid frequency up-tick over the next three weeks - that an climo.  That's all still in place... the MJO/ 200 mb v-p are all in line... water warm... let's go! 

SAL ...  that's been a problem.  I am not sure (in fact, have my doubts really) that the contaminating effects of SAL are being properly sampled/ and/or if they are even physically parameterized in the various modeling types. It doesn't seem that it is.  The models do seem to see the dry air though - interestingly... There's a distinction between dry air entraining vs dry air containing surplus dust to inhibit cloud micro-physical processes ... (it gets eye-glossy from there).

In any case, every guidance, including the Euro have been a bit development-biased.  Gert's a relative success story granted... but event this one was biased on the stronger side since it was way east of Windward's.  By and large the majority of storms have been modeling hallucinations. 

Oh I just mean favorable overall. You had the MJO over the IO back in July to help get the ball rolling with disturbances in Africa. And now the atlantic is under a favorable upper level regime in terms of divergence and easterlies aloft. But yeah...obviously the nuances like SAL and annoying TUTTS can always mess things up.

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...... boy in years gone by we would be looking at this satellite picture and saying, wow,  watch out, things are going to really become active......Now after a 11 year old drought who knows?  Sure does look ominous out in the Tropical Atlantic considering that its getting toward last August....

Untitled.jpg

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I remember back in the 90s we entered a golden age of weather, whereas the tropical and winter seasons really heated up, but the topics have since reverted right back to a decade of futility.

It will be excruciating if that ever happens to winter....I can tune out the tropics, but I'd need a new hobby if winter goes 1980's like the tropics have.

Man, the irony of becoming a weather fanatic as a child growing up in the meteorologically hapless 80s-

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I should probably research the Atl. ACE output over the past decade before even speculating, but....you would think that with all of the crying over global warming, we would be seeing more activity.

Its probably just cyclical.

However I do wonder if the larger and more prominent Pacific is availing itself more of the warming globe, thus inhibiting the Atlantic via increased sheer (exhaust lol).

Again, no ACE research, but the east PAC has seemed to have some banner years of late......of course, the west PAC has always been akin to an atmospheric video game with super typhoons everywhere-

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It's impressive seeing those two gyres lined up ensemble style like their coming off a TC production line conveyor.   Rollin' rollin' rollin' ... man our collective arse is only swollen, RAW HIIIiiied from all the circumstantial pounding we're going to be taking.   In the form of SAL and troughs incurring/enticing earlier re-curves.

I don't know ... but SOMEthing is certainly stopping both from convective coupling with the surface heat source out there and the only thing I can imagine is the SAL... The SAL monitoring does pick up (presently) shrapnel of Saharan schit in the vicinity of both so - lessin' someone has another idea?  It's not shear stopping those.

 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember back in the 90s we entered a golden age of weather, whereas the tropical and winter seasons really heated up, but the topics have since reverted right back to a decade of futility.

It will be excruciating if that ever happens to winter....I can tune out the tropics, but I'd need a new hobby if winter goes 1980's like the tropics have.

Man, the irony of becoming a weather fanatic as a child growing up in the meteorologically hapless 80s-

That would be me....it had its moments.  We didn't really turn the corner until 1992 but that's a discussion for another thread.

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92L looks like a depression to me already, closed circulation present in my opinion judging by satellite imagery and the fact convection has been persistent all day also organized enough, I think it gets designated at 11pm tonight honestly.  This has a real shot at a landfall in the US, and future 93L behind it, looks to miss the US but head west of Bermuda.

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

92L looks like a depression to me already, closed circulation present in my opinion judging by satellite imagery and the fact convection has been persistent all day also organized enough, I think it gets designated at 11pm tonight honestly.  This has a real shot at a landfall in the US, and future 93L behind it, looks to miss the US but head west of Bermuda.

I actually agree with you, 92L looks very solid right now and is likely a TD.

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4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Canadian says happy birthday to you!

That CMC run is a bag of laughs. Three concurrent hurricanes, one gets buried in the Bahamas and then slingshots into NE. Model porn. Euro takes Harvey as a solid cane into Texas, but of course that's 240 out. All that matters is the tropics are heating up and there are things to watch. 92L and Harvey have good persistent convection. Hopefully get some more organization today. 

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

That CMC run is a bag of laughs. Three concurrent hurricanes, one gets buried in the Bahamas and then slingshots into NE. Model porn. Euro takes Harvey as a solid cane into Texas, but of course that's 240 out. All that matters is the tropics are heating up and there are things to watch. 92L and Harvey have good persistent convection. Hopefully get some more organization today. 

That model is a joke. Biggest not gonna happen James ever.

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