Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Anyway ... sorry to have contributed to track skipping - heh. right now, TPC's more recent IR image and loop up to look pretty impressive. There was some less appealing structure over the last two hours, but ..the present frames almost make me wonder if those were not legitimate collapses.... It's got a ring of deep cold and clear eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Can't help but feel solutions of this ilk are a little "fishy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That comes in from SSE. That would be bad verbatim to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is Boston's Sandy. LOL. it's not the first run to do that... had a PWM Sandy in a cycle yesterday or the day before too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is Boston's Sandy. LOL. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can't help but feel solutions of this ilk are a little "fishy". I'd hit the beaches regardless, waves will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Pass. Puff and Pass at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 What's that, like a cat 1 or 2 in Narragansett bay verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Isn't Brian a moderator and a meteorologist? lol I'm all that and then some Short, white, and handsome And look, we could can these threads if we wanted. I let them slide, but allow a little banter to be interspersed until there's a legit reason to keep all posts serious and on-topic. But seriously c'mon, we're stressing over a d10 threat to New England? Of course now that means a major is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Puff and Pass at this point. Nah i just puffed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 I think the Carolina cruiser offers the best LF potential. This garbage is a recipe for failure. Though interesting the GFS had produced that identical track twice in 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Regardless of the track of Irma in models... I keep seeing the same general synoptic layout that we see now at D 5, that was D 6 ...8 ... from recent 24 hour intervals. That, in its self is intriguing sort of broad-scale continuity that was missing from all this before D8. Before then, every other run was handling the structure/orientation of the westerlies over the mid latitudes of eastern N/A/ enough to really zero clue - understandable given that sort of time lead. Now, I kinda am inclined to go with Ray's sentiment from yesterday that the pure recurve/whiff scenario is become less likely ...if we assume deterministic posture based upon stability in outlooks.. Not a bad place to start really. It basically looks like a weekness/trough of some sort will time while this thing approaches the outer Bahamas. That should heighten alert status' because though that could still mean a miss entirely, it definitely ups the stakes of a f'ed up forecast to biblical proportions should a whiff not transpire and Irma really does get down toward 900 mb in core pressure. Although ... not sure what very recent runs are doing in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the Carolina cruiser offers the best LF potential. This garbage is a recipe for failure. Though interesting the GFS had produced that identical track twice in 24 hrs. In this scenario id generally believe it was a southeast us hit if it got stuck just a touch further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 She's a coming . Due north up CTRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Takes a Bob track, but loses appreciable steam with the slow forward motion. Edouard 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I like the backside cold on Irma's exit........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Imagine if it was snow [cough] Congrats PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Only thing I'm taking for granted at this point is the stability of the western ridge. If the ridge is really pumped, I suppose it makes some intuitive sense that you'd have bouts of troughiness in the GL region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Okay, yeah that thing is rapidly transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone between hours 288 and 312 in that evolution... Ha ha... let's do a little Rorschach test of that sentence: what do you see when you see that sentence? Hint, a sane individual might see 2's and 8's and 3's and 12's... most importantly, see 2's and 8's and 3's and 12's in hundreds of hours. Still, it is basically a wild Hurricane for the Cape and Islands ...but by the time the rim of action gets to even Boston it's moving toward a CCB band ... in fact, the QPF layout has a massive comma head rain over NYS. Just another dramatic series of charts - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Congrats me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, Paragon said: Edouard 1996? No, Edouard was a c*co tease. That run is Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, Edouard was a c*co tease. That run is Bob. Pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I dunno ... did "Bob" transition into a snow storm for the southern Maritime region ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just talking track wise, Turned into a cluster here, 10 days without power, 12" of water in the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That's a healthy looking cane. Sort of thought it was going to struggle a touch today with ERC and a little dry air off to the NW, but cold convection is wrapping the center and the eye has opened up nicely. Probably back up to cat 3 soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z gefs. Trend towards more ridging to the north over the Maritimes and New England and further southwest irma locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I would say its back up to cat 3 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno ... did "Bob" transition into a snow storm for the southern Maritime region ? I just mean track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just mean track and intensity. gotcha ..yeah... i think the comparison's coincidental - not that you needed that pointed out. this is one strangola verkokte pattern we are in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, Edouard was a c*co tease. That run is Bob. I almost ruined an entire weekend because of Ed* I was supposed to go to the mountains for the weekend and I kept it off until the last second when I knew Ed* wasn't going to amount to much. You said something about this storm's forward speed slowing down, which is what reminded me of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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