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40/70 Benchmark

Tropical Season 2017

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That occurs with the H5 anomaly in the right place, but the trough is sort of filling in and lifting out. The ridge builds NE of it. 

yeah there's many ways to get it done. 

Obviously there are those that prefer the idealized set ups at all times ...well behaved from the get go.  But sometimes things have to grind out - Sandy was not idealize.  wham.  Not here of course ...but makes the point nonetheless...

I don't think I have ever seen a cyclonic entity modeled below 940 mb's ... actually much below 950, at that particular latitude (100 mi S of Montauk LI and nothing stopping until Narrag. Bay (probably) ends Providence RI as we know it in a solution like that.  Speaking just to the fantasy of this run - obviously...

That said, it's a little worrisome frankly that the GFS has been so persistent with ungodly low pressure nearing the outer Bahamas... Not for here - per se ... but 'the americas' for f sake. jesus.  I've seen three cycles now with sub 900 mb lows at sea level around 25N/70W ... unprecedented modeling behavior, sure. But one helluvan homage to the necessity to sitting up and taking notice.  Even if it completely whiffs (still the probable at this range!) ... that's unheralded and operationally that's not some that to f around with that type of top 5 barometric pressure depth.  And it's not just deep.. that circulation envelopment is like two to three times larger than the average TC

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Well that is quite the weenie run for Irma.  The important takeaway is that the 18Z run is west of the 12Z run.  

Yeeeeah...okay, but not really ...

we are so far away from hockey-sticking deteministics that it may as well trend to the Gulf like the Euro before coming all the way back again... so it's not really much of take away to be honest.

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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I wonder if I was a betting man what are the chances of Irene hitting the US mainland?  What are we 9 days out?   I would guess perhaps 25%.  

:lol:

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18Z GFS is Kevs and James redemption song 

 

Old weenies , yes, they dream 
Dream of destroyed merchant ships
Minutes after they saw  a 
Baro at the bottomless pit
But their dream was made strong
By the run of a lifetime 
We 38 in this generation
Triumphantly
Won't you help to sing
These songs of weenies?
'Cause all they ever have
Redemption songs
Redemption songs

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK is sustained 120 gusting to 150 hurricane force?

2017083118_GFS_231_41.33,-70_severe_ml.png

Looks like anywhere from Key West to Killingly is game on until earlier next week; it will be interesting to track. I am in Dallas for work and I have to come home over the weekend and make sure my Hurricane kit is in order.

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Lol at that GFS run! This sure beats the hell out of discussing dews, lawn troubles and whether we can sneak the odd heat wave on the BDL tarmac. Even if Irma commits hara kiri against Shredderola and vanishes I'll consider these hours well spent. 

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Lol at that GFS run! This sure beats the hell out of discussing dews, lawn troubles and whether we can sneak the odd heat wave on the BDL tarmac. Even if Irma commits hara kiri against Shredderola and vanishes I'll consider these hours well spent. 

All together now, sing loudly

 

Won't you help to sing
These songs of weenies?
'Cause all they ever have
Redemption songs
Redemption songs

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Social media is a burning dumpster right now. Wise meteorologists are trying to stress the uncertainity of the track, but there are idiots who are spamming everyone's feed with long-range GFS and Euro runs and people keep sharing those instead. It's a big mess.

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So I know it was the 18z GFS, and I know it is ten days out, but that run was one of the scariest things I have ever scene weather wise on a model. Know it won't happen, but if it did obviously would be catastrophic.

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